Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Netherlands
Preview
The Excelsior vs Ajax prediction for Sunday, 2026-02-01 (11:15 GMT) feels like one of those Eredivisie afternoons where the script looks obvious… right until Rotterdam decides it wants to be the author. The game is set at Stadion Woudestein (Van Donge & De Roo Stadion), with Excelsior trying to turn a spirited season into points, and Ajax arriving with pressure, ambition, and a lot more market value.
On paper, this is a classic mismatch: Excelsior’s squad is valued around €17.45m, while Ajax sits near €153.50m. In the table, Ajax are 3rd with 37 points, Excelsior 13th with 22. But football loves moments, and Excelsior already proved that this season with a historic 2-1 away win in Amsterdam (November 2025) — their first ever away victory against Ajax.
The catch? Woudestein has not been kind to Excelsior in this fixture: they have not won any of their last nine home league meetings with Ajax. That home history matters for sports betting because it quietly shapes expectations even when current form tries to argue back.
Ajax come with some question marks. Steven Berghuis is still out (groin), while Lucas Rosa and Owen Wijndal are rated doubtful. Branco van den Boomen is back in group training, but match sharpness is another story. In goal, the situation is busy: Remko Pasveer is reportedly looking at a move to Heracles, and Ajax are finalizing a deal for Maarten Paes from FC Dallas.
On the bench, interim boss Fred Grim is staying to the end of the season after a strong run, and he has brought in Denny Landzaat to sharpen attacking patterns. Off the pitch, there’s an extra headline: February 1 is the official first day of Jordi Cruyff as Ajax Technical Director. If you like narrative in your sports betting, this one has it.
Excelsior manager Ruben den Uil has fewer worries. Noah Naujoks (6 goals) remains the key finisher, while Gyan de Regt leads the way for big chances created. New options like M. Jonathans (loan from Utrecht) and E. Hansson (from Birmingham City) add speed and variety. Tactically, Den Uil usually goes pragmatic with a 4.6.05: compact lines, patient defending, and quick counters when space opens up.
Now for the numbers that matter to punters. The main betting odds for 1X2 are 4.6 (home), 4.0 (draw), and 1.83 (away). Those prices line up with the expectation of Ajax control — and our data supports it, especially in possession and chance volume.
Why does X2 stand out? Because Excelsior can be stubborn (Twente couldn’t score), but Ajax usually bring enough territory to avoid slipping twice. The projections tell the story: 37% possession for Excelsior vs 63% for Ajax, with shots expected at 10 vs 18, and shots on target at 3 vs 8. That’s not just “Ajax to have the ball” — it’s “Ajax to live in the final third.”
The 2-3 call fits the tactical mix: Excelsior’s counters can bite, especially if Ajax push numbers forward to “respond” after Europe. But over 90 minutes, Ajax’s shot volume and quality usually win out. For anyone searching the Excelsior vs Ajax prediction and comparing betting odds, the safest route is X2, while the braver play is Ajax to win plus Over 2.5 goals — because in the Eredivisie, clean sheets are often just a rumor.
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X2 -400
Ajax to win or draw with odds of -4002 -120
Ajax is expected to win with odds of -120Over 2.5 -164
At least 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -175
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&O1.5 -238
Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:3
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1
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4
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14
|
|
 Ajax |
22-Nov-25
1:2
| Excelsior  |
| Ajax |
24-Apr-24
2:2
| Excelsior |
| Excelsior |
19-Aug-23
2:2
| Ajax |
| Excelsior |
29-Jan-23
1:4
| Ajax |
| Ajax |
16-Oct-22
7:1
| Excelsior |
| Ajax |
13-Apr-19
6:2
| Excelsior |
| Excelsior |
11-Nov-18
1:7
| Ajax |
| Excelsior |
06-May-18
1:2
| Ajax |
| Ajax |
14-Dec-17
3:1
| Excelsior |
| Excelsior |
19-Mar-17
1:1
| Ajax |
Recent Matches of Excelsior| 15 Mar |
Feyenoord
| - |
Excelsior
| - | |
| 07 Mar | L |
Excelsior
| 1 |
Heerenveen
| 2 |
| 01 Mar | L |
Excelsior
| 0 |
G.A. Eagles
| 1 |
| 20 Feb | L |
Sittard
| 2 |
Excelsior
| 1 |
| 14 Feb | L |
Excelsior
| 1 |
AZ Alkmaar
| 2 |
| 06 Feb | W |
NAC Breda
| 0 |
Excelsior
| 2 |
| 01 Feb | D |
Excelsior
| 2 |
Ajax
| 2 |
| 24 Jan | D |
Twente
| 0 |
Excelsior
| 0 |
| 21 Jan | D |
AZ Alkmaar
| 1 |
Excelsior
| 1 |
| 17 Jan | D |
Excelsior
| 2 |
Telstar
| 2 |
Recent Matches of Ajax
| 14 Mar | W | Ajax |
4 |  S. Rotterdam |
0 |
| 07 Mar | L |  Groningen |
3 | Ajax |
1 |
| 01 Mar | D |  Zwolle |
0 | Ajax |
0 |
| 21 Feb | D | Ajax |
1 |  Nijmegen |
1 |
| 14 Feb | W | Ajax |
4 |  Sittard |
1 |
| 08 Feb | D |  AZ Alkmaar |
1 | Ajax |
1 |
| 01 Feb | D | Excelsior |
2 | Ajax |
2 |
| 28 Jan | L | Ajax |
1 |  Olympiakos |
2 |
| 24 Jan | W | Ajax |
2 |  FC Volendam |
0 |
| 20 Jan | W |  Villarreal |
1 | Ajax |
2 |
Netherlands - Eredivisie| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
PSV Eindhoven | 26 | 75-31 | 68 |
| 2 |
Feyenoord | 26 | 58-38 | 49 |
| 3 |
NEC Nijmegen | 26 | 64-43 | 46 |
| 4 |
Twente | 26 | 45-27 | 44 |
| 5 |
Ajax | 26 | 48-34 | 44 |
| 6 |
AZ Alkmaar | 26 | 43-42 | 39 |
| 7 |
Sparta | 26 | 33-43 | 38 |
| 8 |
Heerenveen | 26 | 44-44 | 37 |
| 9 |
Utrecht | 26 | 38-31 | 35 |
| 10 |
Groningen | 26 | 36-36 | 34 |
| 11 |
Fortuna | 26 | 40-49 | 32 |
| 12 |
GO Ahead | 26 | 39-43 | 29 |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle | 26 | 35-51 | 29 |
| 14 |
FC Volendam | 26 | 29-44 | 27 |
| 15 |
Excelsior | 26 | 27-44 | 26 |
| 16 |
Telstar | 26 | 35-42 | 24 |
| 17 |
NAC Breda | 26 | 28-42 | 23 |
| 18 |
Heracles | 26 | 32-65 | 18 |
