Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Woudestein’s quiet trap

The Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for Saturday, 2026-02-14 (17:45 GMT) starts with a simple truth: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion is small, tight, and loud enough to make bigger teams feel like they’ve walked into the wrong room at a party. Round 23 brings Excelsior (10th) and AZ (7th) back together again, and the mood is part romance, part suspicion—because Woudestein has a habit of turning “sure things” into long evenings.

Setting the scene: form, confidence, and a little tension

Excelsior arrive in their best stretch of the season: five games unbeaten, capped by a 2.05 away win at NAC Breda on February 6. Ruben den Uil’s side have also built a reputation as polite giant-killers—drawing Ajax (2–2), Twente (0–0), and AZ (1–1). That Twente draw on 2026-01-24 was especially telling: win odds of 13.0, yet Excelsior came home with a 0–0 that felt like theft done legally.

AZ’s 2026 has been more of a zigzag. They smashed Ajax 6–0 in the cup, then drifted through mixed league results (D-W-L-W-D) and a 1–1 draw with Ajax on February 8. The bigger story is the bench: Maarten Martens was dismissed in late January, and Lee-Roy Echteld is still searching for defensive calm while chasing a European playoff place.

How they may play: transitions vs pressure

Den Uil has Excelsior switching between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, built for quick transitions and stubborn defending. With a near full squad, Noah Naujoks and Gyan de Regt should be central again—De Regt remains their main creator of big chances. Miliano Jonathans (loan) already proved he can change the plot, scoring the equalizer in the recent meeting with AZ.

AZ, usually aggressive and high-pressing, must do it with a patched midfield and defense. Injuries/doubts include Sven Mijnans, Denso Kasius, Jordy Clasie (late test), Wouter Goes, and Mexx Meerdink. Up front, the story stays strong: Troy Parrott (11 league goals) and Jizz Hornkamp (10) give AZ enough finishing to win even when the script is messy.

Extra angles worth noting

• Head to head: last listed H2H (2023-11-04) ended 1–1; and the more recent meeting also finished 1–1—Excelsior are not intimidated.
• Woudestein factor: artificial turf, tight stands, and AZ failing to win in two of their last three trips here.
• Penalty watch: AZ lead the league in penalties awarded (8). If Excelsior defend too “hands-on,” the referee may become a supporting character.

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and what our model prefers

The market leans AZ but not blindly: betting odds are Home 3.7, Draw 3.8, Away 2.05. The squad-value gap (€15.60m vs €147.97m) explains that, yet Excelsior’s recent results explain the caution.

Our Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction focuses on control, not fireworks. The most profitable tip from NerdyTips is Under 3.5 total goals at 1.5, though the trust rating is only 2.3/10—so think “reasonable lean,” not “print money.” The 1X2 call is X2 at 1.32 (confidence 2.05), matching the idea that Excelsior can resist, but AZ have more ways to score.

AI picks recap

• Main tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.5, confidence 2.3/10)
• 1X2: X2 (odds 1.32, confidence 2.05/10)
• Expected score: 0–2 (HT 0–1)

If AZ keep their heads—and avoid gifting cheap transitions—this reads like a narrow away win where the noise is louder than the scoreline. And on Valentine’s Day in Rotterdam, that’s still a perfectly dramatic ending.