What is the best bet for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Based on AI analysis, the best bet is 'under 3.5' at odds of 1.42.

What are the latest odds for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

The latest odds are: Home Win - 3.2, Draw - 3.7, Away Win - 2.27.

What is the predicted total goals (Under/Over) for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our AI predicts the best bet for total goals in this match is 'under 3.5' goals. The available odds for this selection are 1.42.

What is the best 1X2 betting tip for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our AI-powered prediction suggests that the best 1X2 bet for this match is 'X2'. The available odds for this selection are 1.42.

What is the predicted final score for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our AI predicts a final score of 0:2.

What is the predicted halftime score for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our AI predicts the halftime score will be .

What is the squad value of Excelsior before the match against AZ Alkmaar?

The current estimated market value of Excelsior is €15.60m. This reflects the financial strength of their squad before facing AZ Alkmaar.

What is the squad value of AZ Alkmaar before the match against Excelsior?

The current estimated market value of AZ Alkmaar is €147.97m. This represents their squad’s financial standing before playing against Excelsior.

How many goals are expected in the first half of Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our AI predicts that the first half of Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar will have a total of 0 goals, based on the predicted halftime score of .

How many total goals are expected in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?

According to our AI prediction, the match between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar is expected to have a total of 2 goals, based on the predicted full-time score of 0:2.

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Finished

Netherlands

Eredivisie

Excelsior

€15.60m

14 Feb12:45

1 : 2

AZ Alkmaar

€147.97m

Preview

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction Eredivisie

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Woudestein’s quiet trap

The Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for Saturday, 2.276-02.274 (17:45 GMT) starts with a simple truth: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion is small, tight, and loud enough to make bigger teams feel like they’ve walked into the wrong room at a party. Round 23 brings Excelsior (10th) and AZ (7th) back together again, and the mood is part romance, part suspicion—because Woudestein has a habit of turning “sure things” into long evenings.

Setting the scene: form, confidence, and a little tension

Excelsior arrive in their best stretch of the season: five games unbeaten, capped by a 2.27 away win at NAC Breda on February 6. Ruben den Uil’s side have also built a reputation as polite giant-killers—drawing Ajax (2.27), Twente (0–0), and AZ (1–1). That Twente draw on 2.276-01-24 was especially telling: win odds of 13.0, yet Excelsior came home with a 0–0 that felt like theft done legally.

AZ’s 2.276 has been more of a zigzag. They smashed Ajax 6–0 in the cup, then drifted through mixed league results (D-W-L-W-D) and a 1–1 draw with Ajax on February 8. The bigger story is the bench: Maarten Martens was dismissed in late January, and Lee-Roy Echteld is still searching for defensive calm while chasing a European playoff place.

How they may play: transitions vs pressure

Den Uil has Excelsior switching between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, built for quick transitions and stubborn defending. With a near full squad, Noah Naujoks and Gyan de Regt should be central again—De Regt remains their main creator of big chances. Miliano Jonathans (loan) already proved he can change the plot, scoring the equalizer in the recent meeting with AZ.

AZ, usually aggressive and high-pressing, must do it with a patched midfield and defense. Injuries/doubts include Sven Mijnans, Denso Kasius, Jordy Clasie (late test), Wouter Goes, and Mexx Meerdink. Up front, the story stays strong: Troy Parrott (11 league goals) and Jizz Hornkamp (10) give AZ enough finishing to win even when the script is messy.

Extra angles worth noting

Head to head: last listed H2H (2.273-11-04) ended 1–1; and the more recent meeting also finished 1–1—Excelsior are not intimidated.
Woudestein factor: artificial turf, tight stands, and AZ failing to win in two of their last three trips here.
Penalty watch: AZ lead the league in penalties awarded (8). If Excelsior defend too “hands-on,” the referee may become a supporting character.

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and what our model prefers

The market leans AZ but not blindly: betting odds are Home 3.2, Draw 3.7, Away 2.27. The squad-value gap (€15.60m vs €147.97m) explains that, yet Excelsior’s recent results explain the caution.

Our Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction focuses on control, not fireworks. The most profitable tip from NerdyTips is Under 3.5 total goals at 1.42, though the trust rating is only 2.3/10—so think “reasonable lean,” not “print money.” The 1X2 call is X2 at 1.32 (confidence 2.27), matching the idea that Excelsior can resist, but AZ have more ways to score.

AI picks recap

Main tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.42, confidence 2.3/10)
1X2: X2 (odds 1.32, confidence 2.27/10)
Expected score: 0–2 (HT 0–1)

If AZ keep their heads—and avoid gifting cheap transitions—this reads like a narrow away win where the noise is louder than the scoreline. And on Valentine’s Day in Rotterdam, that’s still a perfectly dramatic ending.

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Woudestein’s quiet trap

Setting the scene: form, confidence, and a little tension

How they may play: transitions vs pressure

Extra angles worth noting

Head to head: last listed H2H (2.273-11-04) ended 1–1; and the more recent meeting also finished 1–1—Excelsior are not intimidated.
Woudestein factor: artificial turf, tight stands, and AZ failing to win in two of their last three trips here.
Penalty watch: AZ lead the league in penalties awarded (8). If Excelsior defend too “hands-on,” the referee may become a supporting character.

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and what our model prefers

AI picks recap

Main tip: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.42, confidence 2.3/10)
1X2: X2 (odds 1.32, confidence 2.27/10)
Expected score: 0–2 (HT 0–1)

AI Predictions

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar

U3.5 -238

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -238

2/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -238

AZ Alkmaar to win or draw

2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -238

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match

2/10

Both Teams To Score

No 123

At least one team is not expected to score

1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U5.5 -185

Away win/draw and under 5.5 goals

1/10

Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:2

Stats Predictions

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Shots Off Goal

Average / Match

2.7

Total Goals

1.3

Goals Scored

1.7

1.4

Goals Against

1.3

9.9

Total Shots

15.2

3.6

Shots on Goal

5.8

4.7

Shots off Goal

4.8

12.2

Fouls

12.1

1.2

Offsides

1.3

416

Total Passes

440

Overview Last 10 Matches

Wins

Over 1.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals

Over 3.5 Goals

Both Teams Scored

Unexpected Wins

Unexpected Loses

Head to Head

4 - 8 - 10

Excelsior	^14-Feb-26 1:2	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^04-Nov-23 1:1	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^11-Jan-23 1:4	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^23-Oct-22 2:1	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^05-Feb-11 2:1	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^07-Dec-11 0:0	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^17-May-15 1:4	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^15-Aug-15 2:2	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^03-Dec-16 3:3	AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior	^03-Mar-18 1:2	AZ Alkmaar

Recent Matches of Excelsior

26 Apr	W	Excelsior	5	Utrecht	0
12 Apr	D	PEC Zwolle	2	Excelsior	2
04 Apr	L	Excelsior	0	NEC Nijmegen	2
20 Mar	D	Heracles	1	Excelsior	1
15 Mar	L	Feyenoord	2	Excelsior	1
07 Mar	L	Excelsior	1	Heerenveen	2
01 Mar	L	Excelsior	0	G.A. Eagles	1
20 Feb	L	Sittard	2	Excelsior	1
14 Feb	L	Excelsior	1	AZ Alkmaar	2
06 Feb	W	NAC Breda	0	Excelsior	2

Recent Matches Of AZ Alkmaar

23 Apr	D	Ahead E	0	AZ Alkmaar	0
19 Apr	W	AZ Alkmaar	5	NEC Nijmegen	1
16 Apr	D	AZ Alkmaar	2	Shakhtar	2
12 Apr	W	AZ Alkmaar	3	Heerenveen	0
09 Apr	L	Shakhtar	3	AZ Alkmaar	0
04 Apr	W	AZ Alkmaar	2	Fortuna S	0
22 Mar	L	Groningen	3	AZ Alkmaar	0
19 Mar	W	Sparta Prague	0	AZ Alkmaar	4
15 Mar	W	AZ Alkmaar	4	Heracles	0
12 Mar	W	AZ Alkmaar	2	Sparta Prague	1

Netherlands - Eredivisie

	Team	M	G	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	90-41	77
2	Feyenoord	31	65-42	58
3	NEC Nijmegen	31	73-49	55
4	Ajax	31	59-37	54
5	Twente	31	52-33	54
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	52-45	49
7	Heerenveen	31	55-51	47
8	Utrecht	31	49-41	44
9	Groningen	31	43-40	42
10	Sparta	31	36-53	42
11	GO Ahead	31	50-45	37
12	Fortuna	31	45-57	36
13	PEC Zwolle	31	41-66	34
14	Excelsior	31	36-51	31
15	FC Volendam	31	33-50	31
16	Telstar	31	43-53	30
17	NAC Breda	31	30-53	25
18	Heracles	31	34-79	19

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Woudestein’s quiet trap

Setting the scene: form, confidence, and a little tension

How they may play: transitions vs pressure

Extra angles worth noting

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and what our model prefers

AI picks recap

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: Woudestein’s quiet trap

Setting the scene: form, confidence, and a little tension

How they may play: transitions vs pressure

Extra angles worth noting

NerdyTips numbers: betting odds and what our model prefers

AI picks recap

Best Tip

1x2 Tip

Total Goals

Both Teams To Score

Bet Builder Tip

Correct Score

Stats Predictions

Average / Match

Overview Last 10 Matches

Head to Head

Latest Matches

Recent Matches of Excelsior

Recent Matches Of AZ Alkmaar

Netherlands - Eredivisie

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