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Match Prediction

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

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Heerenveen

€36.45m

23 Nov06:15
3 : 1

AZ Alkmaar

€124.32m

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Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Goals Expected in Eredivisie Battle

Welcome to our Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction, where we break down everything you need to know ahead of this Eredivisie fixture on November 23, 2.5. With both teams eager to bounce back from recent setbacks, this match at the Abe Lenstra Stadion promises plenty of action—and, if our numbers are right, plenty of goals too.

Team Form, Tactics, and Head to Head

AZ Alkmaar arrive in Friesland sitting comfortably in third place, boasting 24 points from 12 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses is backed by a healthy goal difference (+7), with 25 goals scored and 18 conceded. Despite a recent 1-5 defeat to PSV, AZ’s away form remains impressive—seven wins in their last 12 road trips and six clean sheets in their last 15 outings. They’re a side that knows how to grind out results, especially away from home.

Heerenveen, meanwhile, find themselves in 12th place with 14 points from 12 games. Their record—3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses—reflects a team that can be tough to beat at home. They have scored 19 goals (1.58 per game) but have struggled defensively, conceding 21. Under new head coach Robin van Persie, Heerenveen have adopted a high-pressing, attacking style, but this has sometimes left their backline exposed.

Looking at the head to head stats, AZ Alkmaar have the edge: 3 wins in the last 5 meetings, with Heerenveen taking just 1 and 1 draw. Across those games, AZ have netted 19 goals to Heerenveen’s 7. In their most recent encounter, however, Heerenveen stunned AZ with a 2.95 victory—proof that anything can happen in this fixture.

Team News and Key Players

  • Heerenveen: Missing key defenders Pawel Bochniewicz and Levi Smans due to knee injuries. Václav Sejk and Dylan Vente lead the line, with Maxence Rivera and Jacob Trenskow providing creative spark. Defensive stability will be crucial, especially with Sam Kersten and Maas Willemsen at the back.
  • AZ Alkmaar: Dealing with a lengthy injury list, including Yukinari Sugawara (disciplinary), Maxim Dekker, and Riechedly Bazoer. Up front, Troy Parrott is the main threat, supported by Isak Steiner Jensen and Weslley Patati. Expect AZ to stick with their tried-and-tested 4-3-3 formation.

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Betting Odds and AI Tips

The betting odds for this match reflect AZ Alkmaar’s status as favorites: 2.95 for a home win, 4.0 for a draw, and 2.5 for an away win. Our Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction leans towards goals, with our AI picking over 2.5 total goals as the best tip (odds 1.5, trust score 6.1/10). Both teams are expected to create chances—each predicted to have 13 shots and 5 on target—so expect plenty of action in both penalty areas.

  • Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.5, trust score 6.2.2.95). Both teams have attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making a high-scoring game likely.
  • 1X2 Market: X2 (AZ Alkmaar or draw) at odds of 1.4, trust level 2.0. With AZ’s strong away record and Heerenveen’s defensive issues, the visitors are unlikely to leave empty-handed.
  • Correct Score Prediction: 1-2 in favor of AZ Alkmaar, with a 0-1 lead at halftime.

Additional Match Insights

  • Possession is expected to be almost even: 51% for Heerenveen, 49% for AZ Alkmaar.
  • Total corners predicted: 9 (4 for Heerenveen, 5 for AZ).
  • Yellow cards: 1 each—discipline could play a role, but don’t expect a card-fest.
  • Market value: AZ Alkmaar’s squad is valued at €1.4.32m, dwarfing Heerenveen’s €36.45m—a sign of the gulf in resources.

Final Thoughts: What to Expect

Given both teams’ recent form and their approach to games, our Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar prediction is for a lively contest with at least three goals. AZ’s superior squad depth and away form should see them edge it, but Heerenveen’s home resilience means they won’t go down without a fight. For bettors, over 2.5 total goals is the standout pick, with a solid chance of AZ Alkmaar taking at least a point back to Alkmaar.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

AZ Alkmaar has upcoming match in Europe

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar

O2.5 -200

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -200
6/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -189

AZ Alkmaar to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -200

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -233

Both teams are expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&O1.5 -145

Away win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:2

Stats Predictions

1.76
xG
1.59
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
5
3
Shots Off Goal
4
4
Corners
5
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.91
Expected Goals
1.85
3.6
Total Goals
3.3
2.1
Goals Scored
1.5
1.5
Goals Against
1.8
53%
Possession
53%
13.6
Total Shots
16.2
5.4
Shots on Goal
6.4
4.4
Shots off Goal
5.4
10.9
Fouls
11.4
5.4
Corners
5.9
1.4
Offsides
1.2
1.33
Yellow Cards
2.1
0.2
Red Cards
0.4
426
Total Passes
445

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
5
9
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
7
5
Over 3.5 Goals
5
7
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Heerenveen
11 - 6 - 19
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 22-May-25
4:1
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Heerenveen Heerenveen 02-Mar-25
3:1
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 14-Sep-24
9:1
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Heerenveen Heerenveen 28-Jan-24
2:2
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 21-Oct-23
3:0
Heerenveen Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 01-Apr-23
1:1
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Heerenveen Heerenveen 14-Jan-23
0:2
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 22-May-22
2:0
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Heerenveen Heerenveen 19-May-22
3:2
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar

Profile time Recent Matches of Heerenveen

07 Mar Excelsior Excelsior - Heerenveen Heerenveen -
28 FebW Heerenveen Heerenveen 2 S. Rotterdam S. Rotterdam 1

Profile time Recent Matches of AZ Alkmaar

04 MarAZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar - Telstar Telstar -
01 MarLUtrecht Utrecht 2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0
26 FebWAZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4 Noah Noah 0

Netherlands - Eredivisie Netherlands - Eredivisie

Team Matches Goals Points
1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven25
73-30
65
2 Feyenoord Feyenoord25
55-35
48
3 Ajax Ajax25
47-31
44
4 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen25
61-43
43
5 Twente Twente25
41-26
41
6 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar25
42-40
39
7 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta25
32-42
37
8 Utrecht Utrecht25
38-31
34
9 Heerenveen Heerenveen25
42-43
34
10 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna25
39-45
32
11 Groningen Groningen25
33-35
31
12 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead25
38-39
29
13 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle25
34-50
28
14 FC Volendam FC Volendam25
29-41
27
15 Excelsior Excelsior25
26-42
26
16 NAC Breda NAC Breda25
25-39
22
17 Telstar Telstar25
31-41
21
18 Heracles Heracles25
32-65
17
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