1. Home
  2. Leagues
  3. Championship
  4. Hull City vs Middlesbrough

Finished

Hull City

€81.75m

23 May10:30
1 : 0

Preview

Hull City vs Middlesbrough Prediction Championship

Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction for Wembley final value

The Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction for the Championship play-off final (2026-05-23, 16:30 GMT) comes with more plot twists than a late-season relegation battle. Wembley hosts a match that changed opponent mid-week, after the EFL’s “Spygate” ruling removed Southampton and reinstated Middlesbrough. Hull prepared for one team, woke up to another, and now both must write a new script in a few training sessions.

Team news, tactics, and the story behind this final

Middlesbrough’s route here is the headline. Southampton had already edged the semi-final on aggregate, but the EFL intervened after admissions of illegal filming of Boro training sessions (and earlier spying incidents), and an arbitration panel dismissed the appeal on May 20. Boro return to Wembley, while Hull are understandably annoyed.

Sergej Jakirović called Hull “collateral damage”, and owner Acun Ilicali has reportedly explored legal options, arguing the late change impacts sporting preparation. On the pitch, Hull have been one of the league’s most chaotic watches: typically 4-3-3, but flexible enough to use a back three and wing-backs to attack wide zones. That flexibility matters now, because tactical prep for Southampton is not the same as prep for Boro.

  • Hull route to final: 6th in the regular season; beat Millwall 2-0 on aggregate, with Mohamed Belloumi and Joe Gelhardt decisive at The Den.
  • Key absence: Kyle Joseph is set to miss out with an ankle injury (around 10 weeks).
  • Head to head reminder: last meeting on 2025-12-05 ended Hull 1-4 Middlesbrough, with betting odds then around 3.3 (Hull) and 2.22 (Boro).

Both clubs have recent “we can do it anywhere” evidence: Hull’s 1-2 win at Southampton on 2026-01-17 came at huge sports betting prices (5.8), while Middlesbrough once went to Leeds and won 0-3 (odds 5.2) back in 2024. So yes, surprises happen. But Wembley finals usually punish sloppy defending more than they reward brave stories.

AI betting preview: odds, tips, and smart markets

Market prices lean away from romance and toward resources: Hull’s squad value is €81.75m, Middlesbrough’s is €128.90m, and the betting odds reflect that: Home 4.85, Draw 3.5, Away 2.0. Our 1x2 call is 2 (Middlesbrough win) with trust 3.9/10 and odds 2.0, which lines up with Boro’s stronger control profile.

What our numbers say (and what to bet)

  • Best tip (NerdyTips): Under 3.5 goals at 1.25 (trust 5.5/10).
  • Projected final score: 0-1, and also 0-1 at half-time.
  • Possession forecast: Hull 38% vs Middlesbrough 62%.
  • Shots: Hull 10 (3 on target) vs Boro 19 (5 on target).
  • Corners: Hull 3 vs Boro 8 (11 total) — a quiet nod toward Boro pressure.
  • Cards: Hull 2 yellows, Boro 1 — frustration often follows chasing the ball.

That’s why the safest angle in this sports betting preview is goals rather than heroics. Under 3.5 fits a final, fits the 0-1 model, and even if Hull’s chaos shows up, three goals is still a generous ceiling. For punters who want a little more spice, the Hull City vs Middlesbrough prediction on 1x2 leans Boro, but keep stake sizing sensible: the trust is lower than the totals call, and Wembley has a habit of making favorites sweat.

Read More

AI Predictions
Powered by NerdyTips Logo

Warning

Meaningless match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Hull City vs Middlesbrough

U3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -400
5/10

1x2 Tip

2 100

Middlesbrough is expected to win with odds of 100
3/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -400

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
5/10

Both Teams To Score

No -122

At least one team is not expected to score
3/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -233

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
6/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

0:1

Stats Predictions

0.98
xG
2.14
38%
Ball Possession
62%
10
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Goal
5
4
Shots Off Goal
6
3
Corners
8
2
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.24
Expected Goals
2.06
2.3
Total Goals
2.6
1.3
Goals Scored
1.4
1
Goals Against
1.2
46%
Possession
59%
11.8
Total Shots
19.7
4.2
Shots on Goal
5.8
4.9
Shots off Goal
5.9
10.1
Fouls
9.4
4.5
Corners
8.9
1.9
Offsides
1.6
2.4
Yellow Cards
2
334
Total Passes
524

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
2
8
Over 1.5 Goals
6
5
Over 2.5 Goals
6
2
Over 3.5 Goals
4
7
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Hull City
10 - 3 - 12
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 29-Dec-25
0:1
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 30-Nov-24
3:1
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 13-Dec-23
1:2
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 19-Apr-23
3:1
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 09-Apr-22
0:1
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 04-Jan-14
0:2
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 26-Dec-11
1:0
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 23-Oct-12
2:0
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 18-Mar-16
1:0
Hull City Hull City
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 24-Nov-19
2:2
Hull City Hull City

Profile time Recent Matches of Hull City

23 MayW Hull City Hull City 1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0
23 MayD Hull City Hull City 0 Southampton Southampton 0
11 MayW Millwall Millwall 0 Hull City Hull City 2
08 MayD Hull City Hull City 0 Millwall Millwall 0
02 MayW Hull City Hull City 2 Norwich Norwich 1
25 AprL Charlton Charlton 2 Hull City Hull City 1
21 AprD Leicester Leicester 2 Hull City Hull City 2
18 AprD Hull City Hull City 1 Birmingham Birmingham 1
11 AprL Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 2 Hull City Hull City 1
06 AprD Hull City Hull City 0 Coventry Coventry 0

Profile time Recent Matches Of Middlesbrough

23 MayLHull City Hull City 1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0
12 MayLSouthampton Southampton 2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1
09 MayDMiddlesbrough Middlesbrough 0 Southampton Southampton 0
02 MayDWrexham Wrexham 2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2
25 AprWMiddlesbrough Middlesbrough 5 Watford Watford 1
22 AprWMiddlesbrough Middlesbrough 1 Sheffield W Sheffield W 0
19 AprDIpswich Ipswich 2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2
11 AprLMiddlesbrough Middlesbrough 0 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1
06 AprDSwansea Swansea 2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2
03 AprLMiddlesbrough Middlesbrough 1 Millwall Millwall 2

England - Championship England - Championship

Team M G P
1 CoventryCoventry4697-4595
2 IpswichIpswich4680-4784
3 MillwallMillwall4664-4983
4 SouthamptonSouthampton4682-5680
5 MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough4672-4780
6 Hull CityHull City4670-6673
7 WrexhamWrexham4669-6571
8 DerbyDerby4667-5969
9 NorwichNorwich4663-5665
10 BirminghamBirmingham4657-5664
11 SwanseaSwansea4657-5964
12 Bristol CityBristol City4659-5962
13 Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd4666-6660
14 PrestonPreston4655-6260
15 QPRQPR4661-7358
16 WatfordWatford4653-6557
17 Stoke CityStoke City4651-5655
18 PortsmouthPortsmouth4649-6455
19 CharltonCharlton4644-5853
20 BlackburnBlackburn4642-5652
21 West BromWest Brom4648-5851
22 Oxford UnitedOxford United4645-5947
23 LeicesterLeicester4658-6846
24 Sheffield WednesdaySheffield4629-890
Video preview
Bankers
All Matches
Bet Builder
Log In
Register