Le Havre vs PSG Prediction

Le Havre vs PSG prediction: can the hosts resist PSG?

The Le Havre vs PSG prediction for Saturday, February 28, 2026 (20:05 GMT) feels like a classic Ligue 1 story: a proud home side trying to protect its turf at Stade Océane, and PSG trying to keep a tight two-point lead at the top as Matchday 24 arrives. Le Havre are not in panic mode (they sit 13th with 26 points, nine clear of the drop), but they do need points to keep mid-table calm. PSG, meanwhile, are treating every league game like a mini-final after a heavy February schedule.

Match context, tactics, and what to watch

Le Havre coach Didier Digard has been pretty honest about the size of the task, calling PSG the “Avengers of Ligue 1.” Still, this Le Havre team is not built to simply hide for 90 minutes. Even against bigger teams, Digard tends to ask for a proactive, organised approach rather than a full “park the bus” routine, which can make their games more open than people expect.

• Venue & time: Stade Océane, Le Havre — 20:05 GMT (21:05 local time)
• Referee: Marc Bollengier, usually lenient, but he has shown 3 red cards in his last 5 Ligue 1 appointments
• Table stakes: PSG 1st (54 pts), Le Havre 13th (26 pts)

Team news matters a lot here, especially for Le Havre. The hosts come in with a defensive headache: captain Arouna Sangante is suspended after a straight red, Abdoulaye Touré (knee) and Etienne Youté Kinkoué (head) are out, and Ayumu Seko is a big doubt with a fractured rib. The good news is that Stephan Zagadou is back from a hamstring issue and should start, which is the kind of “finally!” boost coaches love.

PSG also have absences, mainly after an intense Champions League playoff against Monaco. Ousmane Dembélé and Senny Mayulu are out with calf strains, Fabian Ruiz has a bruised knee, and Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha is recovering from a hamstring injury. Even so, the depth is still strong: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Gonçalo Ramos, and Bradley Barcola give Luis Enrique enough firepower to make rotation less scary than it sounds. Expect PSG to control the ball through Vitinha and Warren Zaïre-Emery, with wide runners stretching Le Havre’s reshuffled back line.

Recent form and head to head notes

Le Havre’s season has been a bit “Jekyll and Hyde.” They lost 2-0 to Nantes last weekend, but they are unbeaten in their last four home games. They also showed they can surprise on the road, like the unexpected 1-1 draw at Rennes on 2026-01-18 when they were priced around 5.5 to win. PSG regained top spot with a dominant 3-0 win over Metz, and they arrive with that familiar mix of confidence and tired legs.

• Head to head: Le Havre have not beaten PSG in a competitive match since 1999
• Last H2H (2024-08-16): Le Havre 1-4 PSG (odds then: 7.3 vs 1.41)
• Squad value gap: Le Havre €54.30m vs PSG €1.20bn

NerdyTips AI picks, betting odds, and predicted score

Now to the numbers. The current betting odds are clear: home win 10.0, draw 6.1, away win 1.3. Our model largely agrees with the market. For the 1X2, the best-rated play is 2 (PSG to win) with a strong 8.8/10 confidence at 1.3. In other words, this isn’t the match where you get cute and hope the favourite forgets how to pass.

What makes this Le Havre vs PSG prediction interesting is the game script: we expect PSG dominance, but not necessarily a quiet first half. The anticipated half-time score is 1-1, before PSG’s control tells later on.

• Best bet: PSG to win (2) — confidence 8.8/10, odds 1.3
• Total goals tip: Over 2.5 — trust 4.9/10, odds 1.47
• Full-time score prediction: 1-2
• Half-time score: 1-1

Stat forecasts support that story: PSG are projected to have 67% possession, around 21 shots (6 on target), and 6 corners. Le Havre are pegged at 33% possession, about 6 shots (2 on target), and 3 corners. Cards? We project 2 yellows for Le Havre and 0 for PSG—though with Bollengier and Le Havre’s injury-hit defending, that part can change quickly.

Verdict: PSG should win, but Le Havre at home often makes visitors work for it. If you want a simple, readable angle, stick with the away win. If you want a little extra spice, consider goals—but the model’s confidence there is much lower than the straight PSG result.