Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Preview
The Liverpool M. vs Cerro Largo prediction for Sunday, 2026-03-01 (kickoff 12:45 GMT) points to a tense Apertura Round 4 match at Estadio Belvedere. Liverpool Montevideo sit 10th with 4 points, while Cerro Largo are 12th with 3, so this is less “title race” and more “let’s not make life harder in March.” Still, with these two, small details often decide everything.
Liverpool M. come into this one juggling domestic duties with recent Copa Libertadores travel. They just pulled off a gritty 0–0 away draw vs Independiente Medellín on 2026-02-25, despite massive pre-match odds (8.0) suggesting they’d struggle. That result fits the current picture: effort is there, but goals have not arrived easily.
Under new coach Camilo Speranza (appointed January 2026), Liverpool have leaned into a high-tempo approach, usually in a 4-3.45 or 4.35-3-1. At Belvedere, the plan is simple: press high, keep the ball, and pin teams back. Speranza has even said the stadium “must remain a fortress,” and the tight pitch can help that idea.
Cerro Largo, coached by the experienced Danielo Núñez, usually arrive with a compact shape and a counter-attacking mindset. They’re happy to defend deep, slow the rhythm, and then attack set pieces or quick transitions. Núñez has spoken about being more clinical away from home—because you don’t get many chances when you’re spending long spells without the ball.
There is also a clear market-value gap: Liverpool’s squad is about €13.27m versus Cerro Largo’s €5.43m. That usually shows up in possession and territory, but it does not always show up on the scoreboard—especially in this venue.
The head to head record leans Liverpool historically, but recent meetings have been tricky. In the last listed H2H on 2025-06-07, Liverpool M. won 2–1. The betting market also respected them then (1.77 home win). Yet Cerro Largo have shown they can frustrate strong teams, as seen in their own surprise 0–0 away draw at Central Córdoba (odds 7.5 for a win) in mid-2025.
Current betting odds say Liverpool are favorites: Home 1.95, Draw 3.45, Away 4.35. That pricing matches the expected match script: Liverpool on the ball, Cerro Largo trying to steal it.
For this Liverpool M. vs Cerro Largo prediction, both NerdyTips’ AI and our model land on the same main idea: a low-scoring match.
The numbers support a cagey story. Liverpool are projected to have 61% possession, but shots are predicted at 8–8, with only 3 on target for Liverpool and 2 for Cerro Largo. That combination often leads to a match where one goal decides it—especially if Cerro Largo win set pieces (9 total corners expected) and draw fouls (projected 4 yellows for the visitors vs 2 for Liverpool). In other words: lots of effort, not much clean finishing.
If you want the simplest betting route, the under 2.5 total goals fits the tactical styles, the expected shot quality, and the predicted 0–0 first half. If you want a bigger price, the away win is the “hold your breath” option—because one counter or one dead-ball moment could turn Belvedere very quiet, very fast.
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Avoid first matches from a league!
U2.5 -167
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1672 335
Cerro Largo is expected to win with odds of 335Under 2.5 -167
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -147
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 121
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
0:1
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|
15
-
4
-
6
|
|
 Cerro Largo |
07-Nov-25
2:0
| Liverpool M.  |
| Liverpool M. |
07-Jun-25
2:1
| Cerro Largo |
| Liverpool M. |
18-May-25
1:0
| Cerro Largo |
| Cerro Largo |
13-Nov-24
0:0
| Liverpool M. |
| Cerro Largo |
06-Jul-24
1:0
| Liverpool M. |
| Liverpool M. |
12-May-24
2:1
| Cerro Largo |
| Liverpool M. |
10-Nov-23
3:0
| Cerro Largo |
| Cerro Largo |
16-Jun-23
1:3
| Liverpool M. |
| Cerro Largo |
31-Mar-23
1:0
| Liverpool M. |
| Liverpool M. |
16-Oct-22
1:0
| Cerro Largo |
Recent Matches of Liverpool M.| 25 Feb | D |
Ind. Medellin
| 0 |
Liverpool M.
| 0 |
| 20 Feb | D |
CA Cerro
| 1 |
Liverpool M.
| 1 |
| 18 Feb | L |
Liverpool M.
| 1 |
Ind. Medellin
| 2 |
| 14 Feb | L |
Liverpool M.
| 1 |
Defensor Sp.
| 2 |
| 06 Feb | W |
Albion
| 1 |
Liverpool M.
| 2 |
| 13 Jan | L |
Liverpool M.
| 0 |
Albion
| 2 |
| 16 Nov | L |
Liverpool M.
| 1 |
Penarol
| 2 |
| 07 Nov | L |
Cerro Largo
| 2 |
Liverpool M.
| 0 |
| 01 Nov | L |
Liverpool M.
| 0 |
Juventud
| 1 |
| 26 Oct | W |
Liverpool
| 3 |
Progreso
| 1 |
Recent Matches of Cerro Largo
| 21 Feb | L |  Defensor Sp. |
1 | Cerro Largo |
0 |
| 13 Feb | L | Cerro Largo |
1 |  Wanderers |
2 |
| 08 Feb | W |  Juventud |
0 | Cerro Largo |
1 |
| 17 Jan | D |  Nacional |
1 | Cerro Largo |
1 |
| 14 Jan | W |  Torque |
2 | Cerro Largo |
3 |
| 07 Nov | W | Cerro Largo |
2 | Liverpool M. |
0 |
| 03 Nov | W |  Plaza Colonia |
0 | Cerro Largo |
2 |
| 25 Oct | D | Cerro Largo |
2 |  Racing M |
2 |
| 19 Oct | D |  River Plate |
1 | Cerro Largo |
1 |
| 11 Oct | D | Cerro Largo |
2 |  Boston River |
2 |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Central | 3 | 6-1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Club Nacional | 40 | 80-35 | 89 |
| 3 |
Penarol | 40 | 72-38 | 84 |
| 4 |
Deportivo | 3 | 7-4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Liverpool | 40 | 55-41 | 69 |
| 6 |
Defensor | 41 | 46-41 | 68 |
| 7 |
Juventud | 40 | 47-43 | 62 |
| 8 |
Racing | 40 | 46-43 | 57 |
| 9 |
Boston River | 41 | 52-44 | 57 |
| 10 |
Atletico | 41 | 62-56 | 56 |
| 11 |
Albion FC | 3 | 4-2 | 4 |
| 12 |
Cerro Largo | 40 | 43-44 | 52 |
| 13 |
Danubio | 40 | 44-45 | 49 |
| 14 |
Cerro | 41 | 35-48 | 49 |
| 15 |
Progreso | 40 | 38-66 | 39 |
| 16 |
Wanderers | 40 | 28-53 | 35 |
