Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Uruguay
Preview
The Maldonado vs Progreso prediction for February 14, 2026 (20:00 GMT) comes early in the Apertura (Matchday 2), but it already feels like one of those games where small details matter: discipline, wing play, and who keeps their head when the first tackle flies in. Played at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, Deportivo Maldonado will try to turn their fast start into another points haul, while Progreso arrive looking for a reset after a rough opener.
Maldonado’s opening weekend was loud: a 4–2 win over Racing de Montevideo that instantly stamped them as one of the more direct attacking sides in the early Apertura table. Coach Gabriel Di Noia has been clear about the approach—hard work first, but with real intent to attack. That usually translates into early pressing and quick wide breaks rather than slow possession for possession’s sake.
Progreso’s start was the opposite: a 0–3 loss to Central Español, plus a disciplinary headache that would make any coach sigh into his mate. Leonel Rocco, a club icon now trying to build “identity and commitment,” has to reshuffle because two defenders are suspended after red cards in Matchday 1. That likely means a more compact block and fewer risks, at least until they feel stable.
The head to head isn’t one-sided. The last meeting on 2024-10-06 finished 2–2, showing both teams can trade punches. Maldonado also proved recently they can be stubborn when needed—like that surprising 0–0 away draw at Nacional on 2026-01-14 at massive odds (7.7). Progreso have their own “remember that?” moment too: an unlikely 1–2 away win at Defensor Sporting on 2025-04-20 (priced around 5.5).
The market is tight, which fits the matchup. Current betting odds: Home 2.6, Draw 2.68, Away 2.6. Squad value is also close—Maldonado at €6.43m vs Progreso at €5.40m—so we’re not looking at a giant-gap fixture.
Here’s the logic: Maldonado’s wing-based threat meets a Progreso back line forced into changes, which leans the Maldonado vs Progreso prediction toward the home side avoiding defeat. But with Progreso expected to sit deeper (and with early-season caution), the model still likes total goals staying low. The projected script is patient first half, then Maldonado land the clearer chances late.
Full-time: 2:0
Half-time: 0:0
Read More
Avoid first matches from a league!
1X -227
Maldonado to win or draw with odds of -2271 160
Maldonado is expected to win with odds of 160Under 2.5 -164
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -118
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -167
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:0
|
|
5
-
6
-
6
|
|
 Maldonado |
06-Oct-24
2:2
| Progreso  |
| Progreso |
21-Jul-24
0:1
| Maldonado |
| Progreso |
31-Mar-24
3:1
| Maldonado |
| Progreso |
21-Oct-21
2:0
| Maldonado |
| Maldonado |
24-Jun-21
1:1
| Progreso |
| Progreso |
02-Mar-21
1:1
| Maldonado |
| Maldonado |
06-Sep-20
1:0
| Progreso |
| Maldonado |
11-Nov-17
0:0
| Progreso |
| Progreso |
24-Jun-17
3:1
| Maldonado |
| Maldonado |
12-Nov-16
1:1
| Progreso |
Recent Matches of Maldonado| 02 Mar |
Maldonado
| - |
Juventud
| - | |
| 22 Feb | L |
Penarol
| 2 |
Maldonado
| 1 |
| 14 Feb | W |
Maldonado
| 2 |
Progreso
| 0 |
| 08 Feb | W |
Racing M
| 2 |
Maldonado
| 4 |
| 14 Jan | D |
Nacional
| 0 |
Maldonado
| 0 |
| 29 Nov | W |
Atenas
| 0 |
Maldonado
| 1 |
| 22 Nov | D |
Maldonado
| 0 |
Atenas
| 0 |
| 15 Nov | W |
Colon
| 0 |
Maldonado
| 1 |
| 08 Nov | D |
Maldonado
| 1 |
Colon
| 1 |
| 26 Oct | D |
Maldonado
| 1 |
La Luz
| 1 |
Recent Matches of Progreso
| 28 Feb |  Danubio |
- | Progreso |
- | |
| 21 Feb | L | Progreso |
0 |  Nacional |
1 |
| 14 Feb | L | Maldonado |
2 | Progreso |
0 |
| 07 Feb | L | Progreso |
0 |  Central Esp. |
3 |
| 29 Jan | W |  Boston River |
1 | Progreso |
2 |
| 22 Jan | D | Nacional |
1 | Progreso |
1 |
| 19 Jan | W |  Juventud |
0 | Progreso |
1 |
| 12 Jan | D |  Defensor Sp. |
0 | Progreso |
0 |
| 09 Nov | D | Juventud |
1 | Progreso |
1 |
| 01 Nov | L | Progreso |
0 |  Torque |
5 |
Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Central | 3 | 6-1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Club Nacional | 40 | 80-35 | 89 |
| 3 |
Penarol | 40 | 72-38 | 84 |
| 4 |
Deportivo | 3 | 7-4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Liverpool | 40 | 55-41 | 69 |
| 6 |
Defensor | 41 | 46-41 | 68 |
| 7 |
Juventud | 40 | 47-43 | 62 |
| 8 |
Racing | 40 | 46-43 | 57 |
| 9 |
Boston River | 40 | 51-43 | 56 |
| 10 |
Atletico | 41 | 62-56 | 56 |
| 11 |
Albion FC | 3 | 4-2 | 4 |
| 12 |
Cerro Largo | 40 | 43-44 | 52 |
| 13 |
Danubio | 40 | 44-45 | 49 |
| 14 |
Cerro | 40 | 34-47 | 48 |
| 15 |
Progreso | 40 | 38-66 | 39 |
| 16 |
Wanderers | 40 | 28-53 | 35 |
