Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
This weekend’s Manaus vs Aguia M prediction centres on a fascinating Serie D encounter at the Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith. As the floodlights power up for the 21:30 GMT kick-off on 2025-07-13, we see a tale of two very different clubs. On one side, Manaus, a team with significant financial backing and the comfort of home turf. On the other, Aguia de Maraba, the clear underdog looking to defy both the odds and a stark economic disparity. The numbers tell a story, and our analysis suggests it’s one that heavily favours the hosts.
The betting odds paint a clear picture, with a home win priced at 1.74, a draw at 3.4, and an away victory for Aguia M a distant 4.4. This aligns perfectly with the broader trends in Serie D, a league where home advantage is a powerful force. Winning on the road is a notoriously difficult task, and the data backs this up.
When you dig into the dynamics of this match-up, the case for Manaus becomes compelling. The most glaring factor is the financial muscle. With a team value of €900.00Th., Manaus operates on a different level than Aguia M, whose squad is valued at a modest €250.00Th. This isn't just a number on a spreadsheet; it translates to quality, depth, and the ability to attract players who can decide a game. This financial gap often creates a performance gap on the pitch.
Furthermore, Serie D is a league that rewards home comforts. Consider these league-wide statistics:
While the high draw percentage is notable, Manaus has shown a resilience that suggests they can turn one point into three. Their gritty 0:0 away draw against Paysandu on 2025-02-13, where they defied long odds of 6.4, was a testament to their defensive organisation and fighting spirit. It’s this kind of performance that builds confidence and proves they can grind out results. Our AI analysis reinforces this, flagging a home victory as the most promising bet with a confidence score of 3.4 and odds of 1.78.
Looking at their recent history provides another layer of insight. The last time these two met, on 2025-02-07, Manaus emerged with a 3-2 victory. While that high-scoring affair might tempt some to look at the overs market, the broader league context suggests a tighter contest this time around. In that previous game, Manaus was priced at 1.96 to win, so the current odds of 1.74 indicate the market has even more confidence in them now.
For this sports betting preview, the goals market is particularly interesting. Despite the five goals in their last meeting, our analysis points towards a more cautious affair. The suggested play is Under 2.5 goals, offered at odds of 1.64 with a confidence score of 2.7. This is supported by key Serie D trends:
These statistics suggest that a low-scoring, controlled performance from the home side is the most likely outcome. The referee for the match is yet to be announced, which remains one of the few unknown variables.
All signs point towards a professional and successful evening for the home side. The combination of a significant financial advantage, strong home form typical of the league, and proven resilience makes Manaus the clear favourite. We predict a 2:0 final score, with Manaus establishing control early and taking a 1:0 lead into halftime. For those looking at the betting odds, the two standout selections are a straightforward win for Manaus in the 1x2 market and a wager on under 2.5 total goals, reflecting an expectation of a controlled, dominant performance rather than a wide-open shootout. This Manaus vs Aguia M prediction is built on a solid foundation of data and league trends.
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1 -128
Manaus is expected to win with odds of -1281 -128
Manaus is expected to win with odds of -135Under 2.5 -156
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -137
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U4.5 -333
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:0
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1
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1
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0
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 Aguia M |
03-May-25
1:1
| Manaus FC  |
| Manaus FC |
07-Feb-25
3:2
| Aguia M |
Recent Matches of Manaus FC| 23 Jan | L |
Amazonas.
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2:1
| Manaus FC.
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Recent Matches of Aguia M
Brazil - Serie D| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Tuna Luso | 14 | 24-10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manauara | 14 | 27-11 | 26 |
| 3 |
Manaus FC | 14 | 21-17 | 23 |
| 4 |
Independência | 14 | 18-19 | 21 |
| 5 |
Águia de | 14 | 22-14 | 20 |
| 6 |
Trem | 14 | 23-24 | 18 |
| 7 |
GAS | 14 | 17-24 | 15 |
| 8 |
Humaitá | 14 | 12-45 | 4 |
