Modena vs Sampdoria Prediction

Modena vs Sampdoria prediction: tight margins at Braglia

Circle 2026-01.857 at 14:00 GMT, because this Modena vs Sampdoria prediction reads like one of those Serie B afternoons where one moment decides everything. Modena arrive at the Stadio Alberto Braglia chasing the promotion playoff places, while Sampdoria travel with that familiar weight: stay clear of the relegation zone and stop making life harder than it needs to be.

Context, form, and why this match matters

Modena sit 5th with 34 points, but they have hit a small flat spot: back-to-back 0–0 draws against Empoli and Palermo. The Canarini look sturdy, organized, and slightly allergic to shooting their dinner off the plate. Their recent line (D-D-W-L-L) suggests a team that can protect itself, but sometimes forgets to press “finish” in the final third.

Sampdoria are 14th on 22 points and still living match-to-match. Under new management, they average 1.21 points per game—an improvement, even if “improvement” is a bit like celebrating a soft landing after jumping off the roof. They’re only a few points above the red zone, and the mood around the club has been tense.

Tactics: structure first, inspiration second

Andrea Sottil’s Modena generally line up in a 4-3-3, aiming for balance and steady pressure rather than chaos. Manuel De Luca is expected to lead the line, and Francesco Di Mariano—Modena’s leader for big chances created—should be the main supplier. The selection does come with problems: M. Viti is out (muscular issues) and J. Ferri is suspended.

• Probable Modena XI: Chichizola; Zampano, Adorni, Nieling, Tonoli; Gerli, Santoro, Massolin; Di Mariano, De Luca, Zanimacchia.

Sampdoria have leaned into a 3.45-2-1. Massimo Coda remains the reference point up top, while Simone Pafundi has the “please be consistent” job between the lines. Availability is a real headache: Venuti and Malanca are long-term ACL absences, Depaoli is out, S. Esposito is expected back later (Feb 19), and Antonín Barák is sidelined too.

• Probable Sampdoria XI: Martinelli; Hadžikadunić, Abildgaard, Palma; Di Pardo, Henderson, Bellemo, Cicconi; Pafundi, Cherubini; Coda.

The human subplot: benches, pressure, and a bit of revenge

Samp’s coaching situation is unusual: Angelo Gregucci is the official head coach, while Salvatore Foti is widely viewed as the tactical driver. Gregucci even publicly demanded the creative players stop playing “useless” football—never the gentlest phrase, but Serie B isn’t a poetry club. On the other side, Sottil was sacked by Sampdoria last season, so yes, this one comes with extra spice.

Modena vs Sampdoria prediction: betting angles and AI tips

Let’s talk sports betting, betting odds, and how the numbers fit the story. The market prices a Modena edge: 1.85 home win, 3.45 draw, 5.8 away win. That makes sense with Modena’s table position, home control, and Sampdoria’s injuries—even if Samp’s squad value (€39.55m) is higher than Modena’s (€26.25m).

Best bet: Under 2.5 goals (and why it fits)

NerdyTips’ best tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.65, trust level 8.8/10. Our model agrees: AI-backed under/over also says under 2.5 with 8.8 confidence. With Modena coming off two 0–0 games and Sampdoria missing key pieces, this is the kind of match that can feel like it’s being played with the handbrake gently on.

• Projected score: 1:0
• Half-time expected: 1:0
• Possession: Modena 55% / Sampdoria 45%
• Shots: Modena 18 vs Sampdoria 10 (on target: 5 vs 3)
• Corners: 11 total (7–4 Modena)
• Yellow cards: Modena 1, Sampdoria 3