Novorizontino vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

Novorizontino vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction: Data, Drama, and Betting Value in Serie B

As the sun sets on June 6, 2025, all eyes turn to Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi for a pivotal Serie B encounter. This Novorizontino vs Chapecoense-sc prediction preview dives deep into the numbers, recent form, and betting odds to help you make sense of one of the weekend’s most intriguing fixtures. With Novorizontino sitting 3rd (19 points) and Chapecoense-sc in 7th (16 points), the stakes are high for both sides, and the storylines are rich for fans and bettors alike.

Setting the Stage: Ambition Meets Resilience

Novorizontino, buoyed by a squad valued at €11.15 million and an expected 64% share of possession, come into this match as clear favorites. Their recent 2-1 triumph over Palmeiras—where few gave them a chance at 5.45 odds—has only fueled their confidence and ambition for promotion. Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have built a reputation for grit, most recently holding Atletico Paranaense to a 1-1 draw away from home at a hefty 6.25 in the betting odds. This is a meeting of ambition versus resilience, with both teams eager to prove their credentials in Brazil’s fiercely competitive second tier.

Betting Odds and AI Insights: Where the Value Lies

• Home Win (Novorizontino): 1.633


• Draw: 3.5


• Away Win (Chapecoense-sc): 5.8

Bookmakers have made their stance clear, heavily favoring the home side. The AI consensus, as reflected by NerdyTips’ 6.1/10 trust score and matching 1.633 odds for a Novorizontino victory, echoes this sentiment. But as recent results have shown, both teams are capable of defying expectations—a theme worth remembering for those seeking value in sports betting.

Tactical Breakdown: Possession, Shots, and Expected Goals

• Novorizontino: 17 shots (4 on target), 64% possession


• Chapecoense-sc: 10 shots (3 on target), 36% possession


• Predicted Scoreline: 2-1 to Novorizontino (HT: 1-0)

Expect Novorizontino to dictate the tempo, leveraging their technical edge and home support. Their attacking output—averaging 17 shots per game—should keep Chapecoense-sc’s defense busy. Chapecoense, however, have shown they can absorb pressure and strike on the counter, making the predicted 2-1 outcome far from a foregone conclusion.

Historical Trends and Head to Head: What the Past Tells Us

The last head to head meeting in July 2024 saw Novorizontino edge Chapecoense-sc 1-0, underlining their home advantage. Serie B trends add further context:

• Home wins: 39.5% of matches


• Over 2.5 goals: 31.2% of matches


• Over 3.5 goals: only 14% of matches

These patterns suggest a tight contest, with goals at a premium. For those eyeing the under 3.5 goals market (1.27 odds, 3.0 confidence), the numbers are compelling—especially given both teams’ recent defensive discipline and the league’s tendency toward low-scoring affairs.

Additional Betting Markets: Corners, Cards, and More

• Total corners expected: 9


• Yellow cards: 1 per team

For bettors seeking alternative angles, the expected 9 corners and minimal bookings point to a game more about tactical control than fiery confrontations. These markets can offer value, especially when combined with other predictions in a bet builder.

Form and Surprises: Why Both Teams Can Upset the Odds

Novorizontino’s recent upset over Palmeiras has put the league on notice. Their ability to rise to the occasion, especially at home, makes them a formidable opponent. Chapecoense-sc, though, have made a habit of frustrating bigger teams, as seen in their gritty draw at Atletico Paranaense. Both teams have shown they can punch above their weight, making this fixture far from a routine home win.

Novorizontino vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction: Final Thoughts and Best Bets

With all factors considered, the Novorizontino vs Chapecoense-sc prediction leans toward a home win, supported by squad value, possession stats, and recent form. However, Chapecoense’s resilience and the unpredictable nature of Serie B mean bettors should tread carefully, especially at short odds.

1. Best Bet: Novorizontino to win (1.633) – strong favorite, but not without risk


2. Value Bet: Under 3.5 goals (1.27) – supported by league trends and expected attacking output


3. Correct Score: 2-1 to Novorizontino – aligns with tactical expectations and recent head to head

In summary, this is a battle between an ambitious home side and a plucky underdog, with the data and betting odds pointing toward a Novorizontino victory—but not without a fight from Chapecoense-sc. Whether you’re an analytical bettor or a casual fan, this Serie B fixture promises drama, tactical intrigue, and plenty of betting angles to explore.