Padova vs Monza Prediction

Padova vs Monza prediction: angles, odds and goals call

The Padova vs Monza prediction for Sunday, 1 February 2026 (kickoff 16:15 GMT) feels like a classic Serie B story: a promotion chaser walking into a tricky ground where the home side has nothing to lose and plenty to prove. They meet at the Stadio Comunale Euganeo, and while the table gap is real, the mood suggests we may get a competitive, slightly messy afternoon.

How the game may look before the numbers speak

Monza arrive in 3rd with 41 points and a clear mission: stay in the automatic promotion conversation. Padova, 13th on 25 points, are looking over their shoulder more than up the ladder, trying to keep distance from the play-out line. That pressure often changes decisions in the final third, and it can also turn a match into a test of nerves rather than beauty.

Padova’s recent form has swung from decent to alarming, with a heavy 3–0 loss to Südtirol still fresh. Matteo Andreoletti framed it as a moment for honesty, and you can expect a response built on structure first. His usual back-three setup (3-5-2 or a 3-4-2-1 look) should aim to keep Monza in front of them, then use wide outlets to escape pressure. Alessandro Capelli’s delivery is important here, while Mattia Bortolussi (7 league goals) remains the most direct threat. The fun subplot is Papu Gómez, 38 and still the creative reference point—though his minutes are managed due to ankle issues, which is basically football’s way of saying: “don’t expect 90 minutes of magic every week.”

Monza, coached by Paolo Bianco, are usually more assertive in a 3-4-2-1 with a higher press. The creative support from Galazzi and Colpani should sit behind a lone striker option such as Agustín Álvarez or Dany Mota, who brings both end product and link play (4 goals, 4 assists). Keita Baldé adds speed and improvisation, and that’s exactly the kind of profile that can punish Padova if their wing-backs get caught too high.

Team news also matters. Padova are without Jacopo Bacci (surgery) and F. Belli (muscle), while L. Di Maggio is doubtful. Monza miss Omari Forson and Valentin Antov, with Pedro Obiang away on international duty. The Armando Izzo situation remains a question mark, so Monza’s defensive selection could be adjusted late.

Quick context that can flip the script

• Head to head leans oddly toward Padova: they’ve won the last two meetings, including a 1–0 away win earlier this season.
• Monza have already shown they can travel and surprise, like that unexpected 1–2 win at Udinese when their betting odds were long (6.55).
• Squad value gap is large: Padova €13.90m vs Monza €45.33m, which often shows over 90 minutes.

AI picks, betting odds, and a likely scoreline

From a sports betting view, the 1X2 market leans away: Home win 4.75, Draw 3.4, Away win 1.9. Our model agrees with that direction. The main Padova vs Monza prediction on 1X2 is 2 (Monza win) with 4.8/10 confidence at odds 1.9, which matches the idea that Monza’s deeper squad can eventually tilt the match.

The more interesting angle is goals. The standout pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.4, confidence 4.9/10, and it also tops the under/over market trust rating (4.9). That fits the projected flow: Monza with 53% possession to Padova’s 47%, and a shot count edge (Padova 10 vs Monza 14). Even more telling, shots on target are forecast at 4–4, hinting Padova should still create real chances.

Discipline and game state add texture. The model expects Padova to collect more cards (3 vs Monza’s 1), which often happens when a mid-table side spends longer defending transitions. Corners are close (4–5, total 9), suggesting sustained spells from both teams rather than a single siege.

Final call

Our AI projects a 0–1 halftime score and a 1–2 finish. In plain terms: Monza likely find a way, but Padova should have moments—enough to keep head to head believers interested and enough to make over 1.5 goals feel like the most sensible play alongside the away win in the betting odds.