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Match Prediction

Pafos vs Monaco Prediction

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UEFA Champions League

Pafos

€26.27m

26 Nov12:45
2 : 2

Monaco

€348.30m

Preview

Pafos vs Monaco Prediction UEFA Champions League

Pafos vs Monaco Prediction: Odds, Tips & Story-Driven Analysis

Welcome to our Pafos vs Monaco prediction—your go-to guide for smart betting tips, stats, and a dash of football fan humor. With Pafos making their Champions League group stage debut and Monaco bringing their European pedigree, this match on November 26, 2025, at Alphamega Stadium is one for the history books. Let’s break down the head to head, recent form, team news, and our AI-powered predictions, so you know exactly what to expect.

Team News, Recent Form & Match Context

It’s a classic David vs Goliath scenario—only Goliath’s got a squad worth over €348 million, while David (Pafos) is playing in the Champions League group stage for the very first time. Here’s what you need to know:

  • Pafos FC are living their dream, having won their first Cypriot league title in 2025 and then navigating a tough playoff against Red Star Belgrade to reach this stage. Their Champions League campaign reads like a fairy tale: 5 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss from 10 matches.
  • Recent results show Pafos are no pushovers. They drew 1-1 with Anorthosis and edged Aris Limassol 2-1 in domestic action. Most impressively, they shocked Villarreal 1-0 earlier this month, with odds of 6.41 for a home win—reminding punters that anything can happen in football.
  • Key players include midfield maestro Pêpê Rodrigues, defensive rocks Derrick Luckassen and David Luiz, plus attackers Mislav Oršić and Jajá. But they’ll miss João Correia (suspended), Pedrão (injured), and a few ineligible squad members.

On the other hand, AS Monaco arrive with a star-studded squad and Champions League experience. Their recent European form is solid, featuring a 4-1 win over Club Brugge, a 2-2 thriller with Manchester City, and a goalless draw with Tottenham. They’ve also beaten Bodø/Glimt 1-0.

  • Domestically, Monaco have been unpredictable—losing 1-4 to Lens but also racking up wins against Nantes and Toulouse. Adi Hütter’s side loves to keep things interesting.
  • Monaco’s danger men are Maghnes Akliouche, Aleksandr Golovin, and (when not suspended) Folarin Balogun. The big news is Paul Pogba’s return—he’s desperate to prove himself after two years out, but he may still be finding his feet.
  • Injury list? It’s not short. Krepin Diatta, Mawissa Elebi, Vanderson, and Eric Dier are all out, Balogun is suspended, but Denis Zakaria might make it back just in time.

Tactics, Stats & What to Expect

Neither coach has given much away tactically, but the numbers tell their own story. Monaco are expected to control the ball (63% possession forecast), fire 15 shots (with 4 on target), and win 4 corners. Pafos, meanwhile, are likely to sit deep, hope for chances on the break, and try to make their 2 shots on target count.

  • Both sides are predicted to stay disciplined, with just one yellow card each expected.
  • Despite Monaco’s big names, Pafos have already shown they can upset the odds—just ask Villarreal.
  • In terms of head to head, this is a new European fixture, so history is yet to be written.

Pafos vs Monaco Prediction & Betting Tips

Now for the part every bettor loves: our Pafos vs Monaco prediction and betting tips, powered by NerdyTips’ AI. Let’s see how the stats, odds, and team news come together:

  1. 1x2 Prediction: Our AI leans towards a surprise here—backing Pafos to get something from the game (1X, meaning home win or draw). The trust level isn’t sky-high at 1.8/10, but the odds of 2.4 make it tempting for risk-takers.
  2. Over/Under Goals: The best tip is under 3.5 goals (odds 1.55, trust rating 1.9/10). Both teams have shown they can keep things tight when it matters, and with Monaco missing key attackers, this feels like a sensible play.
  3. Final Score Prediction: The AI’s crystal ball says 2-1 to Pafos, with the home side leading 1-0 at half-time. If that happens, there’ll be a few Cypriot parties going late into the night!
  4. Other Stats: Expect Monaco to dominate most metrics—possession, shots, and corners—but Pafos’ defensive discipline and home crowd could be the wildcards.

Betting Odds & Value Picks

Here’s how the bookies see it:

  • Home Win (Pafos): 5.6
  • Draw: 4.2
  • Away Win (Monaco): 1.63

Monaco are clear favorites, but Pafos have already shown they can upset the odds. If you’re feeling brave, the double chance (1X) at 2.4 offers decent value. For the more cautious, under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is a solid option, especially given both teams’ recent defensive form.

Summary: Our Expert Take

  • Pafos vs Monaco prediction: Back Pafos to avoid defeat (1X) or try under 3.5 goals for a safer bet.
  • Monaco’s quality should shine, but Pafos’ home form and fighting spirit can’t be ignored.
  • This is a classic football story—underdogs with nothing to lose, favorites with everything to prove.

No matter which way you go, the Pafos vs Monaco prediction is all about weighing up the odds, form, and a little bit of football magic. Enjoy the game—and may your bets bring you luck!

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AI Predictions
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Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Pafos vs Monaco

U3.5 -182

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -182
1/10

1x2 Tip

1X 140

Pafos to win or draw
1/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -182

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -141

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 167

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

1:0

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

37%
Ball Possession
63%
4
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Goal
4
1
Shots Off Goal
5
1
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

2.8
Total Goals
3.1
1.6
Goals Scored
1.4
1.2
Goals Against
1.7
44%
Possession
51%
6.4
Total Shots
13.9
3.6
Shots on Goal
4.5
2.5
Shots off Goal
5.2
14.8
Fouls
12.6
2.9
Corners
4.4
2.3
Offsides
1.9
2
Yellow Cards
1.7

Overview Last 10 Matches

5
Wins
3
7
Over 1.5 Goals
6
5
Over 2.5 Goals
5
3
Over 3.5 Goals
5
6
Both Teams Scored
6
1
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Pafos
0 - 0 - 0
Monaco

Profile time Recent Matches of Pafos

14 DecW Paralimni Paralimni.
0:2
Pafos. Pafos
10 DecL Juventus Juventus.
2:0
Pafos. Pafos
05 DecW Pafos Pafos.
4:0
Chloraka. Chloraka
30 NovW Krasava Krasava.
2:3
Pafos. Pafos
26 NovD Pafos Pafos.
2:2
Monaco. Monaco
21 NovW Pafos Pafos.
2:1
Aris. Aris
09 NovD Anorthosis Anorthosis.
1:1
Pafos. Pafos
05 NovW Pafos Pafos.
1:0
Villarreal. Villarreal
02 NovW Pafos Pafos.
1:0
AEL Limassol. AEL Limassol
30 OctD Pafos Pafos.
1:1
AEK Larnaca. AEK Larnaca

Profile time Recent Matches of Monaco

14 DecLMarseille Marseille.
1:0
Monaco.Monaco
09 DecWMonaco Monaco.
1:0
Galatasaray.Galatasaray
05 DecLBrest Brest.
1:0
Monaco.Monaco
29 NovWMonaco Monaco.
1:0
PSG.PSG
26 NovDPafos Pafos.
2:2
Monaco.Monaco
22 NovLRennes Rennes.
4:1
Monaco.Monaco
08 NovLMonaco Monaco.
1:4
Lens.Lens
04 NovWBodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt.
0:1
Monaco.Monaco
01 NovLMonaco Monaco.
0:1
Paris FC.Paris FC
29 OctWNantes Nantes.
3:5
Monaco.Monaco

World - UEFA Champions League World - UEFA Champions League

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Arsenal Arsenal5
14-1
15
2 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Ge5
19-8
12
3 Bayern München Bayern Münche5
15-6
12
4 Inter Inter5
12-3
12
5 Real Madrid Real Madrid5
12-5
12
6 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortm5
17-11
10
7 Chelsea Chelsea5
12-6
10
8 Sporting CP Sporting CP5
11-5
10
9 Manchester City Manchester Cit5
10-5
10
10 Atalanta Atalanta5
6-5
10
11 Newcastle Newcastle5
11-4
9
12 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madri5
12-10
9
13 Liverpool Liverpool5
10-8
9
14 Galatasaray Galatasaray5
8-7
9
15 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven5
13-8
8
16 Tottenham Tottenham5
10-7
8
17 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkus5
8-10
8
18 Barcelona Barcelona5
12-10
7
19 Qarabag Qarabag5
8-9
7
20 Napoli Napoli5
6-9
7
21 Marseille Marseille5
8-6
6
22 Juventus Juventus5
10-10
6
23 Monaco Monaco5
6-8
6
24 Pafos Pafos5
4-7
6
25 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gill5
5-12
6
26 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV5
8-13
4
27 Athletic Club Athletic Club5
4-9
4
28 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Fran5
7-14
4
29 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen5
7-14
4
30 Benfica Benfica5
4-8
3
31 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha5
2-8
3
32 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt5
7-11
2
33 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Pir5
5-13
2
34 Villarreal Villarreal5
2-10
1
35 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty5
4-14
1
36 Ajax Ajax5
1-16
0
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