Preview
The Brazilian Serie A serves up a classic this Thursday as league leaders Palmeiras host the in-form Fluminense. This Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction looks at a match dripping with title implications, tactical intrigue, and a spicy transfer subplot that has fans buzzing. Mark your calendars for February 26, 2026, at 00:30 GMT.
Palmeiras, the mighty Verdão, sit proudly atop the table, their attack purring like a well-tuned engine. A recent 5-1 demolition job showcased their frightening depth. Fluminense, the Tricolor, are the stealthy challengers, unbeaten in nine and grinding out 1-0 wins with the patience of a chess master. This isn't just another game; it's a potential six-point swing in the title race.
But the drama isn't confined to the pitch. The biggest story is about a man who won't even be playing: defender Nino. The former Fluminense captain looks set to join Palmeiras in a multi-million euro deal, a move seen by many Flu fans as a profound betrayal. Add rumors about Jhon Arias into the mix, and the boardroom tension is almost as palpable as the on-field rivalry.
How will these two giants approach the game? Let's break it down.
Palmeiras are a powerhouse. Their manager has them playing to clear strengths:
Fluminense have adapted brilliantly. Known for possession, they've become pragmatic:
The head to head record is famously tight, adding another layer of uncertainty. Their last meeting, a surprising 0-0 draw in November 2025, saw Fluminense defy massive betting odds of 7.0 for the away win. That result proved they can stifle Palmeiras. For this rematch, bookmakers see Palmeiras as favorites, pricing a home win at 1.91, a draw at 3.6, and a Fluminense victory at 4.4.
Beyond the narratives and news, our system crunches thousands of data points to build a statistical picture of the most likely outcomes. Here’s what it projects for this crucial fixture.
The model anticipates a game controlled by the home side. It expects Palmeiras to hold 57% of possession, translating into more offensive activity: 14 total shots to Fluminense's 10, with 5 on target versus 3. This pressure should lead to a total goals count leaning towards the over. The most likely final score prediction is a 2-1 win for Palmeiras, with a 1-0 lead at half-time.
So, where does the value lie? Our AI's top pick across all markets is the 1X (Double Chance) – meaning Palmeiras to win or draw. This is offered at odds of 1.25. Given Fluminense's resilience but Palmeiras' home strength and squad value (€213m vs €105m), it's seen as the safest harbor in what could be a competitive match.
For those looking at the over/under market, the data strongly suggests over 1.5 goals in the match (odds: 1.35). With the expected shot counts and the historical potency of these sides, expecting at least two goals seems a reasonable bet.
For a deeper dive, here are some other projections that paint the full picture:
This is a fascinating contest. Palmeiras, at home with superior firepower, are the logical favorites. Yet Fluminense have a proven recipe for staying unbeaten and will be fueled by that 'betrayal' narrative. While our Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction leans towards a home win or draw (1X) with over 1.5 goals, the real winner will be the neutral fan watching a true Brazilian football spectacle. Just keep an eye on those yellow cards if Fluminense's defense is under siege.
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Palmeiras didn't play better in the last H2H match!
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12
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5
-
13
|
|
Palmeiras |
23-Nov-25
0:0
| Fluminense ![]() |
Fluminense |
23-Jul-25
1:2
| Palmeiras ![]() |
Palmeiras |
08-Dec-24
0:1
| Fluminense ![]() |
Fluminense |
25-Jul-24
1:0
| Palmeiras ![]() |
Palmeiras |
03-Dec-23
1:0
| Fluminense ![]() |
Fluminense |
06-Aug-23
2:1
| Palmeiras ![]() |
Fluminense |
27-Aug-22
1:1
| Palmeiras ![]() |
Palmeiras |
08-May-22
1:1
| Fluminense ![]() |
Fluminense |
14-Nov-21
2:1
| Palmeiras ![]() |
| 21 Feb | W |
Palmeiras
| 4 |
Capivariano
| 0 |
| 15 Feb | D |
Palmeiras
| 1 |
Guarani
| 1 |
| 13 Feb | W |
Internacional
| 1 |
Palmeiras
| 3 |
| 08 Feb | W |
Corinthians
| 0 |
Palmeiras
| 1 |
| 05 Feb | W |
Palmeiras
| 5 |
Vitoria
| 1 |
| 01 Feb | L |
Botafogo SP
| 1 |
Palmeiras
| 0 |
| 28 Jan | D |
Atletico-MG
| 2 |
Palmeiras
| 2 |
| 24 Jan | W |
Palmeiras
| 3 |
Sao Paulo
| 1 |
| 20 Jan | L |
Novorizontino
| 4 |
Palmeiras
| 0 |
| 17 Jan | W |
Palmeiras
| 1 |
Mirassol
| 0 |
| 22 Feb | W | Vasco |
0 | Fluminense |
1 |
| 16 Feb | W | Fluminense |
3 | Bangu |
1 |
| 12 Feb | W | Fluminense |
1 | Botafogo RJ |
0 |
| 08 Feb | W | Fluminense |
1 | CFRJ M |
0 |
| 05 Feb | D | Bahia |
1 | Fluminense |
1 |
| 01 Feb | W | Botafogo RJ |
0 | Fluminense |
1 |
| 28 Jan | W | Fluminense |
2 | Gremio |
1 |
| 25 Jan | W | Fluminense |
2 | Flamengo RJ |
1 |
| 23 Jan | W | Nova Iguacu |
2 | Fluminense |
3 |
| 17 Jan | L | Boavista SC |
1 | Fluminense |
0 |
Brazil - Serie A| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Palmeiras | 3 | 10-4 | 7 |
| 2 |
Sao Paulo | 3 | 5-2 | 7 |
| 3 |
Fluminense | 3 | 4-2 | 7 |
| 4 |
Bahia | 3 | 4-2 | 7 |
| 5 |
Corinthians | 3 | 4-2 | 6 |
| 6 |
Atletico | 3 | 3-2 | 6 |
| 7 |
RB Bragantino | 3 | 2-2 | 6 |
| 8 |
Chapecoense-sc | 3 | 8-6 | 5 |
| 9 |
Mirassol | 3 | 6-5 | 5 |
| 10 |
Coritiba | 3 | 5-5 | 4 |
| 11 |
Flamengo | 3 | 4-4 | 4 |
| 12 |
Botafogo | 3 | 7-6 | 3 |
| 13 |
Gremio | 3 | 6-7 | 3 |
| 14 |
Vitoria | 3 | 4-7 | 3 |
| 15 |
Atletico-MG | 3 | 5-6 | 2 |
| 16 |
remo | 3 | 5-7 | 2 |
| 17 |
Vasco DA Gama | 3 | 2-4 | 1 |
| 18 |
Santos | 3 | 4-7 | 1 |
| 19 |
Internacional | 3 | 2-5 | 1 |
| 20 |
Cruzeiro | 3 | 3-8 | 1 |