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Match Prediction

Ried vs LASK Prediction

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Ried

€9.61m

14 Feb11:00
1 : 1

LASK

€33.88m

Preview

Ried vs LASK Prediction Bundesliga

Ried vs LASK prediction: a derby with Cup tension

The Ried vs LASK prediction for February 14, 2026 (16:00 GMT) starts with one simple truth: this Upper Austrian derby rarely feels like “just another league game”. At the Josko Arena in Ried im Innkreis, it’s about pride, points, and a very practical rehearsal for the ÖFB Cup semi-final coming just two weeks later. If you like football with edge, structure, and a bit of local noise, you’ve picked the right afternoon.

Derby context: more than three points

Ried arrive in 7th, chasing the Championship Group (top 6). LASK sit 2nd and can’t afford to drop momentum in the title race. The last notable head to head reference between them finished 1-1 (2022-05-14), and the mood says another tight script is possible—especially with a Cup tie around the corner encouraging both coaches to keep a few tactical secrets in their pocket.

The stadium factor is real too: the 7,600-capacity Josko Arena is expected to be packed, and in a derby, “home advantage” often means the away team hears every decision twice.

How Ried plan to make this uncomfortable

Under Maximilian Senft, Ried have become the sort of opponent that makes favorites check their watches. They defend with muscle and discipline, then break with purpose rather than poetry. That approach has already paid off lately: they knocked Rapid Wien out of the Cup (1-0) and held Sturm Graz to a 0-0 draw.

  • Key man: Andreas Leitner in goal, recently adding a clean sheet against Sturm Graz to his growing highlight reel.
  • Defensive spine: the towering Nikki Havenaar and Oliver Steurer, built for aerial duels and cold February tackles.
  • Absences: Dominik Stöger (muscle) and Nermin Mešić (ACL) remain out.
  • Discipline watch: Philipp Pomer and Kingstone Mutandwa are one yellow away from suspension.

LASK’s plan: possession, patience, and patched-up defending

Thomas Darazs has leaned into a proactive, possession-heavy style since late 2025. At their best, LASK can suffocate matches—sometimes pushing possession numbers to extremes. The issue? Breaking down compact blocks like Ried’s without getting stung on the counter.

  • Creative hub: Valon Berisha, the passing metronome who decides whether LASK’s attacks feel smooth or stuck in traffic.
  • Goal threats: Maximilian Entrup and Samuel Adeniran, offering different profiles but the same job description.
  • Defensive crisis: Moses Usor and Andrés Andrade are out for the season (ACL). Lukas Jungwirth (hand) and Lenny Pintor (groin) are also unavailable.
  • Extra complications: Filip Stojkovic is suspended (red card). Florian Flecker is doubtful (illness).
  • January fix: a new Dutch defender signed on Jan 21, 2026 to help cover the thin back line.

Form-wise, LASK look strong: a 1-0 win over WSG Tirol and a 3-2 victory over Blau-Weiß Linz, plus a reported 67% win rate in recent Bundesliga away games. Still, Ried already proved they can ruin a script—remember that 3-1 Ried win at LASK on August 30, 2025.

NerdyTips AI: betting angles and match numbers

Now to the data-led Ried vs LASK prediction side. The market is tight: betting odds list Ried at 2.63, the draw at 3.3, and LASK at 2.630—basically the bookmakers admitting they don’t want to pick a favorite in a derby.

Most promising tip: under 3.5 total goals

NerdyTips’ AI leans to under 3.5 total goals at 1.32 (trust score 4.0/10; confidence 4.1). That fits the projected match story: expected score 1-1, half-time 0-0. It also matches the tactical picture—Ried compact, LASK patient, both aware there’s another meeting soon.

  • Projected chances: Ried 12 shots vs LASK 13, with 4 vs 5 on target.
  • Possession: 55% Ried, 45% LASK—suggesting Ried won’t just park the bus; they’ll try to own phases.
  • Corners: 9 total (5-4), steady pressure rather than chaos.
  • Cards: 1 yellow each expected—derby spirit, but hopefully not derby mayhem.

Best 1X2 angle: X2 (LASK or draw)

The AI’s preferred result bet is X2 at 1.57 (trust 2.0/10). The low trust score is a polite warning: this is a derby, and Ried have a history of upsetting bigger budgets—€9.61m squad value versus LASK’s €33.88m. Still, with LASK’s away strength, “don’t lose” is the logical conservative play.

Final read: expect a tight first half, a tactical second half, and a match that looks like chess until someone blinks. If you’re building a slip, the numbers and the narrative both point toward the same place: keep it simple, keep it low-scoring, and respect the derby.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Ried didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Ried vs LASK

U3.5 -313

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -313
4/10

1x2 Tip

X2 -204

LASK to win or draw
2/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -313

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
4/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -133

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

X2&U4.5 -141

Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

1:1

Stats Predictions

1.73
xG
1.72
55%
Ball Possession
45%
12
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Goal
5
5
Shots Off Goal
4
5
Corners
4
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

2.9
Total Goals
3.3
1.8
Goals Scored
2.4
1.1
Goals Against
0.9
12.5
Total Shots
16.6
4.8
Shots on Goal
6.6
4.8
Shots off Goal
5.4
11.8
Fouls
11.2
1.7
Offsides
1

Overview Last 10 Matches

6
Wins
8
8
Over 1.5 Goals
9
6
Over 2.5 Goals
9
2
Over 3.5 Goals
3
4
Both Teams Scored
6
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Ried
5 - 5 - 3
LASK
Ried Ried 14-Feb-26
1:1
LASK LASK
LASK LASK 30-Aug-25
1:3
Ried Ried
LASK LASK 21-Mar-25
1:1
Ried Ried
Ried Ried 18-Feb-23
1:1
LASK LASK
LASK LASK 04-Sep-22
1:1
Ried Ried
Ried Ried 14-May-22
1:1
LASK LASK
LASK LASK 02-Apr-22
0:2
Ried Ried
LASK LASK 05-Dec-21
1:0
Ried Ried
Ried Ried 29-Aug-21
1:0
LASK LASK
Ried Ried 14-Mar-21
0:3
LASK LASK

Profile time Recent Matches of Ried

04 Mar Ried Ried - LASK LASK -
01 MarL Grazer AK Grazer AK 2 Ried Ried 1
22 FebD Tirol Tirol 1 Ried Ried 1
14 FebD Ried Ried 1 LASK LASK 1
08 FebL Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1 Ried Ried 0
31 JanW Ried Ried 3 SK Rapid SK Rapid 0
31 JanD Ried Ried 0 Burghausen Burghausen 0
23 JanW Ried Ried 4 A. Salzburg A. Salzburg 1
23 JanW Ried Ried 2 Ceske B Ceske B 0
17 JanL Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2 Ried Ried 1

Profile time Recent Matches of LASK

04 MarRied Ried - LASK LASK -
01 MarDAustria V Austria V 2 LASK LASK 2
22 FebLLASK LASK 1 Salzburg Salzburg 5
14 FebDRied Ried 1 LASK LASK 1
07 FebWLASK LASK 1 Tirol Tirol 0
30 JanWLASK LASK 3 BW Linz BW Linz 2
23 JanWLASK LASK 3 St. Polten St. Polten 0
23 JanLLASK LASK 1 Amstetten Amstetten 2
15 JanWLASK LASK 4 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 1
15 JanWCSKA 1948 CSKA 1948 1 LASK LASK 2

Austria - Bundesliga Austria - Bundesliga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull20
42-25
36
2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz20
29-24
34
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz20
27-27
33
4 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna20
30-28
32
5 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg20
28-23
31
6 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna20
24-24
29
7 Ried Ried20
25-26
28
8 SCR Altach SCR Altach20
21-20
28
9 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC20
28-27
25
10 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens20
26-28
25
11 Grazer AK Grazer AK20
20-33
17
12 FC BW Linz FC BW Linz20
17-32
14
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