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Match Prediction

Rio Ave vs Benfica Prediction

Finished

Rio Ave

€42.58m

17 Jan20:30
0 : 2

Benfica

€350.50m

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Rio Ave vs Benfica Prediction Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Benfica Prediction: Odds, Stats, and Betting Insights

Welcome to our Rio Ave vs Benfica prediction for the Primeira Liga match scheduled on January 17, 2026, at 20:30 GMT. If you’re looking for a smart, easy-to-understand sports betting preview with the latest betting odds, team news, and head to head stats, you’re in the right place. Let’s break down everything you need to know before placing your bets on this intriguing fixture.

Team Form, Tactics, and What to Expect

Benfica, sitting comfortably in third place with 39 points, are the clear favorites heading into this match. They remain unbeaten in the league after 17 games, with 11 wins and 6 draws. Their defense is rock solid, having conceded just 11 goals—the second-best record in the Primeira Liga. On the other side, Rio Ave are in 10th place with 20 points, showing inconsistency with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last five matches. Their home form is a bit wobbly, with only 2 wins from 8 games at Estádio do Rio Ave F.C.

  • Benfica are managed by the legendary José Mourinho, who’s brought his trademark focus and tactical discipline back to Lisbon. Expect Benfica to dominate possession (projected at 62%) and patiently break down Rio Ave’s defense.
  • Rio Ave are likely to sit deep and look for quick counter-attacks, especially with Brazilian striker Clayton (10 goals this season) leading the line. Their average possession is just 45.8%, so expect them to soak up pressure and hope for a set-piece opportunity.

Benfica’s attacking threat is spearheaded by Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis, who has already netted 17 times this season. With an average team rating of 7.00 and a squad value of €350.50m (compared to Rio Ave’s €42.58m), the visitors have quality and depth on their side.

Head to Head and Recent Meetings

Looking at the head to head record, Benfica have dominated this fixture. Rio Ave have never beaten Benfica in the Primeira Liga. In their last five meetings, Benfica have won three times, with two draws. The most recent match ended 1-1, showing that Rio Ave can sometimes frustrate the Lisbon giants. Notably, back in September 2025, Rio Ave managed a surprise 1-1 draw away at Benfica, defying the betting odds of 27.0 for a win!

  • Last H2H: Rio Ave 1-1 Benfica (2025)
  • Previous H2H: Rio Ave 2-3 Benfica (2025)

Injuries, Suspensions, and Staff News

Both teams have their share of absentees. Rio Ave are missing key defenders O. Richards and E. da Silva Moreira, while midfielder T. Bakoulas is out until March. Benfica have a longer injury list, with several midfielders and forwards unavailable, but crucially, Nicolás Otamendi is back from suspension and ready to marshal the defense.

  • Benfica’s manager José Mourinho is known for his meticulous preparation—he even made his players sleep at the training ground after a recent cup loss. Expect a focused and well-drilled Benfica side.
  • Rio Ave have seen recent staff changes, with new manager Sotiris Sylaidopoulos (or Petit, depending on your source) taking charge in July 2025. The club has also undergone a wave of layoffs, which could affect morale.

Rio Ave vs Benfica Prediction, Odds, and Betting Tips

Let’s get to the heart of our Rio Ave vs Benfica prediction. The current betting odds are:

  • Home win (Rio Ave): 10.25
  • Draw: 5.5
  • Away win (Benfica): 1.35

Our AI-driven prediction leans towards a low-scoring affair, with under 3.5 goals as the top betting option (odds 1.52, trust level 1.8/10). The predicted final score is a rather surprising 0:0, with both teams expected to be cautious and Benfica controlling the tempo. First half? Also 0:0, so don’t expect fireworks early on.

  • Best 1x2 bet: 1X (Rio Ave or Draw) at odds of 3.5 (trust score 1.0)
  • Under/Over market: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.52 (confidence 1.8)

Statistically, Benfica are expected to take 16 shots (5 on target) to Rio Ave’s 4 (1 on target), with corners predicted at 6-1 in favor of the visitors. Rio Ave might pick up 3 yellow cards, while Benfica are expected to keep their cool.

Final Thoughts and Betting Insights

While the betting odds heavily favor Benfica, recent head to head results suggest Rio Ave can be stubborn, especially at home. However, with Mourinho’s men unbeaten and in control, it’s hard to look past an away win. Still, the under 3.5 goals market looks appealing given both teams’ recent defensive focus and the predicted low shot conversion.

  1. If you’re feeling brave, a small stake on 1X (Rio Ave or Draw) could pay off handsomely at 3.5 odds.
  2. For safer sports betting, under 3.5 goals is the smart play, especially with both teams likely to prioritize defense.

That wraps up our Rio Ave vs Benfica prediction. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, remember: football is full of surprises, and sometimes the stats only tell half the story. Good luck, and may your bets be as sharp as Mourinho’s tactics!

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Benfica has upcoming match in Europe

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Rio Ave vs Benfica

U3.5 -192

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -192
1/10

1x2 Tip

1X 245

Rio Ave to win or draw
1/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -192

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
1/10

Both Teams To Score

No -133

At least one team is not expected to score
4/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U5.5 280

Home win/draw and under 5.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Half-Time Score

0:0

Correct Score

0:0

Stats Predictions

0.47
xG
1.72
38%
Ball Possession
62%
4
Total Shots
16
1
Shots on Goal
5
1
Shots Off Goal
6
1
Corners
6

Average / Match

0.98
Expected Goals
1.66
3.2
Total Goals
2.7
1.3
Goals Scored
1.8
1.9
Goals Against
0.9
48%
Possession
52%
8.2
Total Shots
14.9
3.3
Shots on Goal
5.3
3.1
Shots off Goal
6
13.2
Fouls
11.7
4.1
Corners
5.9
1.8
Offsides
2
2.78
Yellow Cards
1.13
375
Total Passes
462

Overview Last 10 Matches

3
Wins
6
9
Over 1.5 Goals
8
7
Over 2.5 Goals
5
5
Over 3.5 Goals
4
7
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
0
0
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Rio Ave
2 - 4 - 25
Benfica
Benfica Benfica 23-Sep-25
1:1
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 16-Mar-25
2:3
Benfica Benfica
Benfica Benfica 27-Oct-24
5:0
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 17-May-24
1:1
Benfica Benfica
Benfica Benfica 14-Jan-24
4:1
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 02-Apr-23
0:1
Benfica Benfica
Benfica Benfica 08-Oct-22
4:2
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Benfica Benfica 01-Mar-21
2:0
Rio Ave Rio Ave
Rio Ave Rio Ave 18-Oct-20
0:3
Benfica Benfica
Rio Ave Rio Ave 17-Jun-20
1:2
Benfica Benfica

Profile time Recent Matches of Rio Ave

31 Jan Rio Ave Rio Ave.
-
Arouca. Arouca
25 JanL Nacional Nacional.
4:0
Rio Ave. Rio Ave
17 JanL Rio Ave Rio Ave.
0:2
Benfica. Benfica
04 JanW Rio Ave Rio Ave.
3:1
Casa Pia. Casa Pia
28 DecL Sporting CP Sporting CP.
4:0
Rio Ave. Rio Ave
20 DecD Gil Vicente Gil Vicente.
2:2
Rio Ave. Rio Ave
13 DecL Rio Ave Rio Ave.
0:1
Guimaraes. Guimaraes
06 DecW AFS AFS.
1:2
Rio Ave. Rio Ave
30 NovD Rio Ave Rio Ave.
1:1
Santa Clara. Santa Clara
08 NovD Alverca Alverca.
1:1
Rio Ave. Rio Ave

Profile time Recent Matches of Benfica

28 JanBenfica Benfica.
-
Real Madrid.Real Madrid
25 JanWBenfica Benfica.
4:0
Estrela.Estrela
21 JanLJuventus Juventus.
2:0
Benfica.Benfica
17 JanWRio Ave Rio Ave.
0:2
Benfica.Benfica
14 JanLFC Porto FC Porto.
1:0
Benfica.Benfica
07 JanLBenfica Benfica.
1:3
Braga.Braga
03 JanWBenfica Benfica.
3:1
Estoril.Estoril
28 DecDBraga Braga.
2:2
Benfica.Benfica
22 DecWBenfica Benfica.
1:0
Famalicao.Famalicao
17 DecWSC Farense SC Farense.
0:2
Benfica.Benfica

Portugal - Primeira Liga Portugal - Primeira Liga

Team Matches Goals Points
1 FC Porto FC Porto19
40-4
55
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP19
52-10
48
3 Benfica Benfica19
42-11
45
4 SC Braga SC Braga19
37-18
33
5 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente19
24-16
31
6 Moreirense Moreirense19
26-26
30
7 Famalicao Famalicao19
24-14
29
8 Estoril Estoril19
37-31
26
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes19
20-27
25
10 Alverca Alverca19
19-33
23
11 Nacional Nacional19
26-28
20
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave19
22-35
20
13 Estrela Estrela19
23-36
19
14 Santa Clara Santa Clara19
14-21
17
15 Arouca Arouca19
20-44
17
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia19
20-38
15
17 Tondela Tondela19
12-33
12
18 AVS AVS19
14-47
5
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