Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Turkey
Preview
Welcome to our Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor prediction for the Süper Lig fixture scheduled on December 1, 2025, at the Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. With both sides coming off eventful weeks and the betting odds tipping slightly in favor of the hosts, this match promises to be a focal point for sports betting enthusiasts and football fans alike. Let’s break down the teams, tactics, and what the numbers tell us before we get to our expert betting tips.
Samsunspor, currently sitting 4th in the Süper Lig, have turned their home ground into a fortress this season. Their recent form is nothing short of impressive: unbeaten in 12 matches, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 outings across all competitions. The home side averages 2 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded per match in this period, a testament to their defensive solidity and clinical finishing. Their home record is equally strong, with 2 wins and a draw in the last three, conceding only once.
Manager Thomas Reis has built a side that thrives on efficiency. Samsunspor may not always dominate possession—hovering around 49% on average—but they make their chances count, averaging 16 shots and 6 on target per game. Their tactical approach is pragmatic: control the tempo, stay compact at the back, and strike when the opportunity arises.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, are 8th in the table and have earned a reputation as draw specialists. Their recent form is mixed, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 6 matches. They tend to see more of the ball (averaging 55% possession), but often struggle to convert this into clear-cut chances, with just 0.83 goals scored per match in this period. João Pereira’s men are patient in their build-up but have lacked the cutting edge up front, especially away from home.
Samsunspor will be missing several key players due to injuries and suspensions, including Lubomir Satka, Afonso Sousa, Bedirhan Çetin, and Tanguy Coulibaly. Olivier Ntcham is also sidelined, while Eyüp Aydın, Cherif Ndiaye, Efe Yiğit Üstün, and Celil Yüksel are suspended. Alanyaspor’s injury list is shorter, but they’ll be without Buluthan Bulut, Steve Mounié, and Güven Yalçın, while a trio of players are one yellow card away from suspension.
The betting odds for this match favor Samsunspor at 1.87 for a home win, with a draw at 3.6 and an away win for Alanyaspor at 4.5. Our AI and NerdyTips’ own model both recommend a home win as the best 1x2 bet, each giving it a moderate trust rating just above 5 out of 10. The odds reflect Samsunspor’s strong home form and higher squad value (€49.90m vs. Alanyaspor’s €28.40m), but also acknowledge the visitors’ knack for grinding out results.
Expect Samsunspor to control around 55% of possession, with Alanyaspor at 45%. The home side is projected to take 16 shots (5 on target), while the visitors should manage 14 shots (3 on target). Corners are forecast at 6 for Samsunspor and 5 for Alanyaspor, with 2 yellow cards likely for the away team and none for the hosts.
While Alanyaspor have shown they can frustrate bigger teams—holding Trabzonspor to a draw recently—the numbers and recent form point toward a narrow Samsunspor victory. The head to head record and both teams’ current trajectories suggest a close contest, but the home side’s efficiency and defensive record give them the edge in our Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor prediction.
For sports betting fans, this fixture offers value in the home win and under markets. As always, keep an eye on late team news, but our analysis suggests Samsunspor should continue their strong run at home.
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1 -115
Samsunspor is expected to win with odds of -1151 -115
Samsunspor is expected to win with odds of -115Under 3.5 -286
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -122
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -227
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
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5
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2
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4
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 Alanyaspor |
21-Apr-25
1:0
| Samsunspor  |
| Samsunspor |
24-Nov-24
1:1
| Alanyaspor |
| Samsunspor |
18-May-24
1:1
| Alanyaspor |
| Alanyaspor |
17-Jan-24
1:3
| Samsunspor |
| Alanyaspor |
25-Dec-23
3:1
| Samsunspor |
| Samsunspor |
12-Mar-16
5:1
| Alanyaspor |
| Alanyaspor |
17-Oct-15
3:2
| Samsunspor |
| Alanyaspor |
01-Jun-15
0:4
| Samsunspor |
| Samsunspor |
28-May-15
5:1
| Alanyaspor |
Recent Matches of Samsunspor| 15 Mar |
Samsunspor
| - |
Kayserispor
| - | |
| 12 Mar | L |
Samsunspor
| 1 |
Vallecano
| 3 |
Recent Matches of Alanyaspor
| 14 Mar | D |  Goztepe |
2 | Alanyaspor |
2 |
| 09 Mar | D | Alanyaspor |
0 |  Genclerbirligi |
0 |
Turkey - Süper Lig| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Galatasaray | 26 | 62-18 | 64 |
| 2 |
Fenerbahçe | 26 | 57-27 | 57 |
| 3 |
Trabzonspor | 26 | 52-29 | 57 |
| 4 |
Beşiktaş | 25 | 45-30 | 46 |
| 5 |
Göztepe | 26 | 30-20 | 43 |
| 6 |
Başakşehir | 26 | 44-30 | 42 |
| 7 |
Kocaelispor | 26 | 23-27 | 33 |
| 8 |
Gaziantep FK | 26 | 35-42 | 33 |
| 9 |
Samsunspor | 25 | 27-30 | 32 |
| 10 |
Rizespor | 26 | 32-36 | 30 |
| 11 |
Alanyaspor | 26 | 28-32 | 28 |
| 12 |
Konyaspor | 26 | 30-39 | 27 |
| 13 |
Gençlerbirliği | 25 | 28-34 | 25 |
| 14 |
Antalyaspor | 26 | 25-43 | 24 |
| 15 |
Eyüpspor | 25 | 19-36 | 22 |
| 16 |
Kasımpaşa | 25 | 21-36 | 21 |
| 17 |
Kayserispor | 25 | 19-46 | 20 |
| 18 |
Fatih | 26 | 24-46 | 17 |
