Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia Prediction

Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia prediction: form, news, odds

The Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia prediction for Friday, 13 February 2026 (15:45 GMT) feels like one of those matches where the table pressure is almost louder than the fans. Spartak are trying to breathe easier near the bottom half, while Lokomotiv Sofia arrive with bigger ambitions and the stronger squad on paper.

Match context that matters before you bet

There’s a very “February in Bulgaria” feel to this one. Both coaches have talked about winter pitches and how they can turn a game into a more direct, physical contest. That usually means fewer clean passing sequences, more second balls, and set pieces becoming a big part of the story.

It’s also a key moment for Spartak Varna because they recently changed direction on the bench. Nikolay Kirov was appointed on 4 February 2026, and this is exactly the type of match that tells you if the new plan is sinking in or still stuck on the drawing board.

Spartak Varna: new coach, same survival pressure

Spartak (12th) haven’t won in their last five league games, but the 0-0 away draw at Cherno More on 7 February was a small statement. The odds were huge (9.75 for Spartak to win), so getting out with a point showed improved discipline and a willingness to suffer without the ball.

What Spartak are likely to lean on

• Ahmed Ahmedov’s finishing: 16 league goals and still the most reliable way Spartak turn moments into points.
• Kovalyov + Juric-Petrasilo at the back: the keeper and center-back are central to Spartak’s survival hopes.
• Game management: after that Cherno More draw, expect a more cautious shape, especially early on.

Injuries and discipline notes (Spartak)

• Deyan Lozev remains out.
• Ilker Budinov is close to returning and could make the squad.
• Suspension risk: Kovalyov and Juric-Petrasilo are one yellow card away from missing the next match.

Lokomotiv Sofia: stronger squad, away confidence

Lokomotiv Sofia (8th) come in with the better overall form, even if the last big headline was a 1.29 loss to Ludogorets. Before that, their sequence was solid (W-L-W-D-W), and they’ve been one of the more comfortable away teams this season with four road wins.

Stanislav Genchev was openly frustrated after the Ludogorets defeat, pointing to concentration and tactical mistakes. That usually means we see a “back to basics” response: more structure, clearer pressing triggers, and less risk in bad zones.

Key Lokomotiv threats

• Ante Aralica: 16 goals, the main scorer and the obvious problem Spartak must solve.
• Spas Delev: experience, smart movement, and usually involved when games get messy.
• Dominik Yankov: Genchev has called him one of the best attacking midfielders in the league; he’s expected to be the creative link.

Injuries, suspensions, and cards (Lokomotiv)

• Ryan Bidounga suspended after a red card.
• Mitko Mitkov remains out following surgery.
• Suspension risk: Reyan Daskalov is sitting on 9 yellow cards, with Angel Lyaskov and Sadio Dembélé also one booking away.

Head to head: history favors Lokomotiv, but goals happen

If you like using head to head trends, Lokomotiv Sofia have generally enjoyed this matchup: 12 wins in the last 21 meetings, with Spartak only taking 4. Still, the last H2H on 2024-10-06 reminded everyone that these games can swing: Spartak won 3-2 in a match that ignored caution completely.

Betting odds snapshot (1X2)

The market has Lokomotiv as the clear favorite, which lines up with form, squad value, and away results. Current betting odds are:

• Spartak Varna win: 3.8
• Draw: 3.45
• Lokomotiv Sofia win: 1.960

And yes, the market value gap is real: Spartak at €4.66m versus Lokomotiv at €8.68m. Not everything, but it often shows up over 90 minutes when legs get heavy.

NerdyTips AI picks and Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia prediction

Now to the numbers that shape our Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia prediction. The AI expects Lokomotiv to control slightly more of the game (46% vs 54% possession), create a few more chances (5 vs 7 shots), and land more on target (2 vs 3). Nothing wild, just the kind of steady edge that wins away matches.

Best bet: X2 (Lokomotiv or draw)

• Tip: X2
• Trust level: 8.5/10
• Odds: 1.29

This fits the overall story: Spartak are still searching for wins, Lokomotiv travel well, and the historical edge leans away. It’s not glamorous, but it’s the most stable angle if you’re building a bet slip.

1X2 pick: Away win

• Tip: 2
• Trust level: 7.1/10
• Odds: 1.960

If you want the bigger price, the away win is the straight read: Lokomotiv have more attacking pieces, and Spartak may need time before Kirov’s ideas fully settle. The main danger is Ahmedov doing Ahmedov things and turning one chance into a goal.

Total goals: Under 3.5

• Tip: Under 3.5 total goals
• Confidence: 5.9/10
• Odds: 1.25

This one is supported by the winter-pitch narrative and Spartak’s recent 0-0 at Cherno More. Even though the last head to head ended 3-2, the match context now suggests a tighter rhythm, with Lokomotiv trying to manage the game better after the Ludogorets mistakes.

Projected match stats (for punters who like details)

• Possession: Spartak 46% — Lokomotiv 54%
• Shots: Spartak 5 — Lokomotiv 7
• Shots on target: Spartak 2 — Lokomotiv 3
• Corners: Spartak 3 — Lokomotiv 5 (total 8)
• Yellow cards: Spartak 2 — Lokomotiv 2

Correct score and half-time lean

• AI correct score: 0-2
• Half-time score: 0-1

That points to a Lokomotiv goal before the break, then a second as Spartak chase the game. If Spartak do score, it’s most likely via Ahmedov, but the AI is basically betting on Lokomotiv’s extra quality showing up across the full 90.

Final word for bettors

To sum up the Spartak Varna vs Lok. Sofia prediction in plain terms: Spartak are improving defensively but still short on momentum, while Lokomotiv look better built for points on the road. If you want the safer route, X2 makes the most sense. If you want value, the away win at 1.960 is the sharper swing, with Under 3.5 total goals as the steady companion bet.