Villarreal vs Alaves Prediction

Villarreal vs Alaves Prediction: Odds, Stats & Expert Betting Tips

Welcome to our Villarreal vs Alaves prediction for the highly anticipated La Liga fixture set for January 10, 2026, at Estadio de la Cerámica. With Villarreal eyeing a top spot and Alaves fighting for mid-table stability, this match promises both tactical intrigue and betting opportunity. Dive in as we break down the head to head record, team form, total goals trends, and the latest betting odds to help you make the smartest picks.

Team Form, Tactics, and Key Absences

Villarreal, currently sitting 3rd in La Liga, have made Estadio de la Cerámica a fortress this season. With 12 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses overall—and a particularly impressive 7-1-1 home record—the Yellow Submarine have been a model of consistency. Their attacking output is notable, with 34 goals scored so far. Despite a string of injuries and absentees, including key names like S. Mouriño, Pau Cabanes, and Gerard Moreno, coach Marcelino García Toral has kept his side focused and ambitious. Marcelino’s tactical approach emphasizes possession, quick transitions, and exploiting space, which has paid dividends, especially at home.

Alaves, meanwhile, find themselves in 13th place, struggling to find consistency, especially on the road. Their away form is a concern, with five consecutive La Liga away defeats and only 15 goals scored all season. Coach Eduardo Coudet has instilled a physical, high-pressing style, but the lack of firepower up front—Carlos Vicente leads with just 4 goals—has limited their effectiveness. Injuries to Lucas Boyé and doubts over Hugo Novoa and Jesús Owono further complicate matters, while F. Garcés is suspended.

Head to Head and Historical Insights

• In 24 previous meetings, Alaves holds a narrow edge: 11 wins to Villarreal’s 10, with 3 draws.
• These encounters average 2.75 total goals per game, hinting at competitive but rarely high-scoring affairs.
• In their last meeting (November 2024), Villarreal dominated 3-0, underlining their recent ascendancy in this fixture.

Villarreal’s home record is particularly impressive—unbeaten in 22 of their last 25 home La Liga matches. Alaves, on the other hand, have scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of their last 14 away league matches, a trend that looks set to continue given their current form and attacking woes.

Betting Odds, Predictions, and Smart Bets

• Home Win Odds: 1.533
• Draw Odds: 4.5
• Away Win Odds: 7.2

Our Villarreal vs Alaves prediction is firmly in favor of the home side. NerdyTips’ AI recommends a home win (1) with a trust level of 5.6/10 and odds of 1.533, reflecting both Villarreal’s dominance at home and Alaves’ travel sickness. For the 1x2 market, the home win is again the standout pick, with a slightly higher trust level of 5.7.

• Best Over/Under Bet: Under 3.5 goals (trust rating: 3.3, odds: 1.34)
• Predicted Final Score: 2:0 to Villarreal
• Half-Time Prediction: 0:0

Expect Villarreal to control the tempo with around 60% possession, generating 19 shots (6 on target), while Alaves are likely to muster just 7 shots (2 on target). The predicted number of corners (9 total, with 6 for Villarreal) and expected yellow cards (2 each) further point to a game where the home side dominates but does not run riot.

Key Betting Insights

1. Villarreal’s market value (€269.70m) dwarfs Alaves’ (€69.50m), underlining the gulf in squad quality.
2. Alaves’ tendency to receive at least two yellow cards in this fixture is a trend worth noting for card markets.
3. With both teams missing key players, depth and home advantage should prove decisive for Villarreal.

Final Verdict: Villarreal vs Alaves Prediction

All signs point to a Villarreal victory. Their home record, superior squad depth, and tactical discipline make them strong favorites, while Alaves’ away struggles and limited attacking threat suggest a low-scoring affair. Our Villarreal vs Alaves prediction: a comfortable 2-0 win for the hosts, with under 3.5 total goals the safest value bet.

For punters seeking a reliable pick, back Villarreal to win at odds of 1.533. For those looking for a little extra, under 3.5 goals offers solid value given recent trends and the predicted match tempo. As always, keep an eye on team news before kickoff, but all the stats and betting odds point in one direction—home comfort at Estadio de la Cerámica.