AI Betting Tips: Depor vs Popayan Primera B Derby
The Cauca Valley Rivalry Ignites
The Colombian Primera B delivers a compelling regional fixture as Depor FC welcomes a Popayan-based side on October 13, 2025. While the original Universitario Popayán dissolved in 2019, this new incarnation carries forward the regional pride, setting the stage for a tense encounter. Historical Primera B data reveals home advantage is significant, with 42.3% of matches ending in home victories, a crucial factor for bettors analyzing this fixture.
Team Form & Historical Context
Depor FC arrives with superior recent form, securing four wins in their last ten outings. Their 2-0 victory in the last head-to-head meeting on October 3, 2024, provides a psychological edge. However, their defense has been leaky, conceding 1.8 goals on average. Popayan’s record is less impressive with just three recent wins, but their stunning 1-0 away victory over Huila on September 16, 2025, at odds of 7.0, proves their capability for shock results. This volatility makes them a dangerous, if unpredictable, opponent.
NerdyTips AI NT 4.0 Analysis & Betting Recommendations
The AI has crunched the numbers, analyzing team form, historical league statistics, and the specific dynamics of this derby.
Best Tip: 1X (Double Chance – Depor to Win or Draw)
NerdyTips AI identifies 1X (Home Win or Draw) at odds of 1.39 as the standout recommendation. With a 3.4/10 confidence level, this tip leverages Depor’s home advantage where Primera B sides historically dominate. Given Popayan’s inconsistent away form and Depor’s demonstrated ability to grind out results—like their impressive 3-3 draw against Huila as underdogs—this bet offers a solid safety net. It’s the most probable outcome according to the data.
Alternative Value Bet: Home Win (1)
For those seeking higher odds, the AI suggests a straight Home Win at 2.45. While confidence is lower at 2.4/10, the value is evident. Depor’s superior firepower (averaging 1.2 goals per game versus Popayan’s 1.1) and their dominant H2H history make this a tempting punt for risk-tolerant bettors, especially with the passionate home support behind them.
Goals Market: Under 2.5 Goals
The AI projects a cagey affair, recommending Under 2.5 Goals at 1.74. This aligns with the predicted 1-0 final score and a 0-0 half-time score. While both teams have featured in matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently (Depor 6/10, Popayan 5/10), the high-stakes derby atmosphere often leads to tighter, more cautious football. With only 36.4% of league matches historically going over 2.5 goals, this bet presents a strong statistical case.
Final Verdict & Predicted Score
This derby is poised to be a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest. Depor’s home advantage and slightly better form make them favorites to avoid defeat. The smart money, according to the AI, follows the 1X tip, banking on Depor’s resilience at their fortress. For a speculative play, the home win odds are attractive. Expect a nervy contest, with a single goal likely deciding the outcome in Depor’s favor.
AI Predicted Score: Depor 1 – 0 Popayan