AI Tips & Predictions: Real Cartagena vs Real Soacha
Match Overview and Betting Insights
Real Cartagena welcomes Real Soacha for an eagerly awaited Primera B fixture in Colombia. Both teams are determined to improve their league standing, with Real Cartagena looking to solidify their position near the top and Real Soacha aiming to climb out of the lower tier. The betting market strongly favors the home side, with odds of 1.62 for a Cartagena win, 3.64 for a draw, and 5.0 for a Soacha victory. These numbers reflect Cartagena’s home strength and Soacha’s underdog status, but recent results suggest the potential for a competitive contest.
Performance Analysis: Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena’s consistent form in the Torneo Betplay has kept them in the promotion conversation. Over the last 131 matches, Cartagena has won 42.7%—a figure that closely mirrors the overall home win rate in Primera B (42.2%). Their draw rate sits at 25.2%, and they have shown a reliable ability to score, with 74.8% of their matches featuring over 1.5 goals. Cartagena’s recent form is promising, with four wins from their last ten matches, scoring an average of 1.9 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Five of these games saw over 2.5 goals, highlighting their attacking intent and the occasional defensive lapse.
Performance Analysis: Real Soacha
Real Soacha enters this fixture with a win rate of 37.1% from their last 70 matches. Their draw rate is slightly higher than Cartagena’s at 28.6%, and both teams scored in 51.4% of Soacha’s matches, reflecting a tendency for open play. In recent outings, Soacha also claimed four wins in ten games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match. Notably, six of these encounters went over 2.5 goals, suggesting that Soacha’s matches can be unpredictable in terms of goal output.
Head-to-Head and Recent Results
The recent head-to-head history adds intrigue. In their last meeting, Cartagena edged Soacha 2-1, showing their ability to secure results at home. However, Soacha have shown resilience on the road, most recently defeating Tolima 2-1 as significant underdogs. This points to their potential to surprise, even when the odds are stacked against them.
Statistical Context: Primera B Trends
Broad league trends over the past four years show home teams winning 42.2% of matches, with 35.5% ending in draws and away teams winning only 22.3%. Both teams scored in 40.4% of games, and over 1.5 goals appeared in nearly 60% of matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 36.2% of fixtures, while only 18.0% saw more than 3.5 goals. Cartagena and Soacha’s recent stats align with these trends, with both sides regularly involved in matches with two or three goals but rarely exceeding that threshold.
Best Tip: Under 3.5 Goals
The top tip for this encounter is under 3.5 goals, with a confidence rating of 4.8/10 and odds at 1.25. This recommendation is supported by both teams’ historical data: only 22.9% of Cartagena’s and 20.0% of Soacha’s matches have surpassed the 3.5-goal mark. Given the odds and the statistical likelihood, a high-scoring affair seems unlikely. The AI prediction expects a final score of 2:0 in favor of Cartagena, with a halftime advantage of 1:0, further reinforcing the under 3.5 tip.
Secondary Prediction: 1X (Home or Draw)
The predicted 1×2 outcome is 1X (Home or Draw) with a trust level of 2.0 and an odd of 1.14. Cartagena’s solid home form and the league’s historical home win rate make it unlikely that Soacha will leave with all three points. The draw rate in this fixture is not insignificant, so covering both outcomes provides a safer betting angle.
Recent Trends and Tactical Considerations
Cartagena’s recent matches have featured both high-scoring draws and controlled wins, indicating a balanced approach between attack and defense. Soacha, while less prolific, have shown they can keep games tight and strike on the counter. With both teams averaging just above one goal conceded per match in their last ten outings, the likelihood of a defensive battle is high.
League Stakes and Motivation
With Cartagena pushing for promotion and Soacha seeking to escape the lower reaches of the table, motivation will be high on both sides. Cartagena’s current league position gives them an edge in confidence and momentum, while Soacha’s recent away win shows they cannot be underestimated.
Final Thoughts and Betting Strategy
Bettors should take note of the statistical alignment between both teams’ recent results and the broader Primera B trends. The under 3.5 goals market emerges as the standout option, offering value and a strong statistical foundation. For those seeking lower risk, the 1X double chance is backed by both form and historical data.
In summary, expect a disciplined performance from Real Cartagena, with Soacha aiming to keep things tight. All signs point to a result with few goals and a strong chance of the home side taking points.