Benfica vs Sporting CP: AI Tips

Lisbon Derby: Primeira Liga Betting Tips & Insights

The Lisbon Derby—known locally as “Dérbi de Lisboa”—returns to the Primeira Liga spotlight as Benfica welcome Sporting CP to the Estádio da Luz. With both teams hovering near the top of the table and a fierce rivalry stretching back over a century, this fixture is always a highlight of Portuguese football. For punters, the numbers behind this encounter offer some compelling opportunities.

Betting Odds & AI Tips Overview

Bookmakers currently set the odds at 2.22 for a Benfica win, 3.39 for a draw, and 3.13 for a Sporting CP triumph. NerdyTips AI NT 4.0 recommends 1X (Benfica win or draw) as the best tip, with a confidence level of 5.7/10 and odds at 1.36. Our AI’s 1×2 prediction leans toward a Benfica win, albeit with a moderate 4.7/10 confidence rating. For goals, the AI suggests over 2.5 at odds of 1.75.

What does this mean for bettors? Let’s break down the statistics and see how these tips align with the history and form of both sides.

Primeira Liga Trends & Team Performance

Primeira Liga’s home advantage is notable—43.6% of matches end in a home win. Benfica, as hosts, have been exceptional, winning 67.1% of their last 164 matches. Sporting CP are nearly as consistent, with a 66.7% win rate from their last 162 games. Draws are less common for both, hovering around 17-18%.

Benfica’s recent form is particularly impressive: 9 wins in their last 10, averaging 3.5 goals scored per match and conceding just 0.8. Every one of those 10 matches had over 2.5 goals, suggesting a high-octane attacking approach. Sporting CP also boast 9 wins from 10, but with a slightly lower goal average (2.5 scored, 0.6 conceded), and 7 of those games going over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head & Derby Dynamics

The last Dérbi de Lisboa ended 2-2, showing how closely matched these sides can be. Historically, both teams have no fear of the big occasion—Benfica famously toppled Ajax away with odds of 8.1, while Sporting CP held Manchester City to a draw in Manchester. The derby is famed for its passion, tactical battles, and unpredictable moments, often defying pre-match expectations.

AI Analysis: Explaining the Tips

Best Tip: 1X (Benfica win or draw)
With Benfica’s dominant home record and recent form, the AI’s top tip is logical—even if Sporting CP are formidable opponents. The 1X market at 1.36 is attractive for those seeking a safer bet, especially given that Benfica have lost just a handful of home games in recent years, and Sporting CP’s away wins, while frequent, are not overwhelming.

Prediction: Benfica Win (1)
A home win at odds of 2.22 offers value, though the AI’s confidence is moderate. The stats support this: Benfica’s attack is firing, and they’ve averaged more goals per game recently than Sporting CP. With 53% expected possession and more shots predicted, the hosts have the statistical edge.

Over 2.5 Goals
Both teams’ matches frequently go over 2.5 goals—62.8% for Benfica, 66.0% for Sporting CP—making this market tempting at 1.75 odds. The predicted scoreline of 3:0 suggests the AI sees Benfica’s offense overwhelming Sporting CP, though derbies can always surprise.

Key Stats & Derby Betting Angles

– Benfica average 15.9 shots per game, Sporting CP 15—both sides attack relentlessly.
– The expected number of corners (4 for Benfica, 2 for Sporting CP) hints at attacking intent, but perhaps fewer set-piece opportunities than usual.
– Discipline could play a role; Benfica are expected to see 1 yellow card, Sporting CP 2.

Final Thoughts: Value for Bettors

The Dérbi de Lisboa rarely disappoints, and this edition looks set to be another classic. The AI’s best tip—1X (Benfica win or draw)—is well supported by recent form, historical trends, and the current odds. Over 2.5 goals is another strong angle, especially given both teams’ attacking output and the derby’s history of drama.

Whether you’re looking for a safer option or chasing bigger returns, the numbers suggest backing Benfica at home is the way to go. As always, bet responsibly—and enjoy the spectacle of Portuguese football’s most storied rivalry!