Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda Prediction
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda Prediction
Chongqing Tongliang Long welcome Tianjin Teda, also known as Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, in the Chinese Super League on 2026-06-27 at 13:00 UTC. This Matchday 16 fixture brings together a newly promoted side with real home belief and an established CSL team still searching for a stable rhythm.
For bettors following Super League predictions, this match is especially interesting because the odds, recent form, and NerdyTips AI numbers all point toward a tight game rather than a wide-open scoring contest.
The main market prices are: Chongqing Tongliang Long win at 1.97, draw at 3.20, and Tianjin Teda win at 4.25. That makes the home side the favourite, but not by enough to call this a simple pick. The AI projection sees Chongqing edging it 1:0, with a 0:0 half-time score.
Best Betting Tip
Best tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57
NerdyTips’ top AI-generated pick is under 2.5 goals, with a confidence rating of 5.1/10. The under/over model also supports the same selection, rating under 2.5 goals at 5.2/10. In simple terms, the strongest angle is that this match may be decided by one clean moment rather than constant attacking fireworks.
The predicted final score is 1:0 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. That fits the under 2.5 goals tip perfectly and also matches the expected half-time score of 0:0. A slow first half, cautious buildup, and limited clear chances are all reasonable expectations.
Why Under 2.5 Goals Makes Sense
At first glance, Chinese Super League data leans toward goals. Over the last four years, 53.6% of league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 54.0% of games. However, betting is not only about league averages. It is about the specific match rhythm, team profiles, and market value.
Chongqing’s long-term numbers show that only 44.6% of their last 74 matches went over 2.5 goals. That is lower than the league average and suggests they are not always dragged into high-scoring games. Their over 3.5 rate is just 23.0%, which also supports a more controlled match view.
Tianjin Teda have been more open historically, with 55.3% of their last 76 matches going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in 57.9%. But their recent away mindset, mixed form, and need to avoid another disappointing result could make them more careful here.
The AI also expects balanced attacking numbers: 7 total shots for Chongqing and 8 for Tianjin, with both teams projected to land 3 shots on target. Those are not numbers that scream a goal rush. The corner count is forecast at 7 overall, while the yellow card estimate is 2 for each team, hinting at a competitive but measured match.
1×2 Prediction: Chongqing to Win
NerdyTips’ 1×2 prediction is home win, priced at 1.97, with a confidence rating of 4.7/10. This is not a high-confidence banker, but it is a logical lean.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 50.0% of their last 74 matches, compared with Tianjin’s 36.8% win rate across their last 76. The hosts also have a 29.7% draw rate, which reminds bettors that the home win is not risk-free. Still, the market and the AI both give Chongqing the edge.
Their projected 57% possession is another positive sign. If Chongqing can control the ball at Tongliang Long Stadium and keep Tianjin defending for long spells, the home side may only need one decisive attacking move to win.
Recent Form: Resilience Over Firepower
Chongqing have won 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 1.2 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Four of those 10 games went over 2.5 goals, which means most stayed under the line. Their average possession in that run is 46.3%, with 6.7 shots per match. These are modest attacking figures, but they also describe a team that can stay in matches and compete without dominating every phase.
Their 2:2 away draw with Shanghai Shenhua on 2026-05-09 was one of their standout results. Given the odds of 6.25, it was a major surprise and showed the promoted club can handle big-pressure CSL environments. Add in a hard-earned 1:1 league draw with Henan FC and a 2:0 FA Cup win over Ningbo Professional, and the story becomes clear: Chongqing are not just happy to be here. They are learning fast.
Tianjin Teda have won 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring and conceding 1.4 goals per game. Five of those games went over 2.5 goals. They average 43% possession and 8 shots per match, so they can create attempts, but their defensive stability has not always followed.
Their 1:1 away draw against Hangzhou Greentown on 2026-05-10 was also a strong underdog result, coming at long odds of 5.1. Tianjin have the experience to frustrate stronger opponents, yet consistency remains the issue.
Tactical Story: Patience at CSL Tempo
This fixture could follow a familiar Chinese Super League pattern: the home team trying to set the tempo, the away team staying compact, and both sides avoiding early mistakes. Chongqing’s expected 57% possession suggests they will spend more time building attacks, while Tianjin may look for transitions and set-piece moments.
The predicted 0:0 half-time score is important for live bettors. If the first 20 minutes are slow and chances are limited, the under 2.5 goals angle may look even stronger. Tianjin’s projected 4 corners to Chongqing’s 3 also suggests the visitors could have spells of pressure, but not necessarily enough to turn the match into a high-scoring one.
Betting Odds and Value
Home win at 1.97 is attractive for those who trust Chongqing’s home advantage and stronger long-term win rate. The draw at 3.20 is not out of the picture, especially given Chongqing’s 29.7% draw trend and Tianjin’s 26.3%. Away win at 4.25 reflects Tianjin’s lower recent win rate, but their ability to earn surprise away draws means they should not be ignored.
Still, the cleaner betting angle is the goals market. Under 2.5 goals has shorter odds at 1.57, but it fits the projected 1:0 score, the expected 0:0 half-time result, and Chongqing’s lower over 2.5 profile.
Final Verdict
This match feels like one for patient bettors. Chongqing Tongliang Long have the home pitch, better overall win percentage, and a growing reputation as a difficult promoted side to break down. Tianjin Teda bring CSL experience and enough quality to stay competitive, but their recent form does not fully support an away win.
NerdyTips predicts Chongqing Tongliang Long 1:0 Tianjin Teda. The home win is a reasonable 1×2 pick, but the standout selection is clear: Best tip: Under 2.5 goals.
For fans tracking other markets, NerdyTips also covers competitions beyond China, including Ligue 1 predictions. Bettors looking for more global football angles can also explore predictions for Indian Super League. Always bet responsibly and treat predictions as guidance, not guarantees.