Comunicaciones vs Excursionistas: Bet of the day

The Historic Rivalry: Comunicaciones vs Excursionistas

The Primera B Metropolitana derby between Comunicaciones and Excursionistas is one of Argentina’s underrated footballing spectacles. While not as globally renowned as the Superclásico, this fixture carries deep local significance, often delivering tense, hard-fought battles. On May 21, 2025, these two sides meet again, and the betting markets—along with NerdyTips AI NT 4.0—suggest a tight, low-scoring affair.

Match Odds and Key Insights

The bookmakers have priced Comunicaciones as slight favorites at 2.18 for a home win, while Excursionistas sit at 3.16 for an away victory. A draw is valued at 3.12. However, the AI’s top recommendation isn’t on the 1X2 market—it’s on the total goals.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.42 (6.1/10 Confidence)
NerdyTips AI highlights this as the standout play, and the stats back it up. Only 33.3% of Primera B Metropolitana matches over the last four years have seen over 2.5 goals. Both teams have recent form pointing towards defensive resilience:

– Comunicaciones averages just 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last 10 games.
– Excursionistas averages 1.2 goals scored but an impressive 0.8 conceded in the same span.

Their last head-to-head meeting ended 1-3, but with both sides showing tighter defenses lately, a repeat seems unlikely.

Why the Under Makes Sense

The league-wide trend supports low-scoring games, and both teams have been involved in matches where goals are scarce. Only 34.3% of Comunicaciones’ last 105 games exceeded 2.5 goals, while Excursionistas’ rate is slightly higher at 43.0%. However, recent form suggests a dip in attacking output, making the under a strong candidate.

Alternative Bet: Excursionistas to Win (3.16)

The AI gives this a low confidence rating (1.8/10), but there’s intrigue here. Excursionistas have a better win rate (42.2%) over their last 128 games compared to Comunicaciones (36.2%). Their recent away win against Godoy Cruz (0-1 at odds of 8.0) shows they can grind out results on the road. At 3.16, this could be a value pick for risk-tolerant bettors.

Predicted Score: 0-1 (0-0 at Half-Time)

The AI’s projected scoreline aligns with the under 2.5 goals tip, favoring Excursionistas to edge a tight contest. A goalless first half is also expected, which could make 0-0 at HT an interesting live betting angle.

Final Betting Verdict

This derby may lack global headlines, but it offers solid betting opportunities. The under 2.5 goals bet at 1.42 is the standout play, supported by both AI analysis and recent trends. For those seeking higher odds, Excursionistas’ away win at 3.16 carries risk but could reward bold punters.

Whatever you choose, expect a tense, tactical battle—one where goals may be at a premium.