Gharraf vs Naft Maysan: Match Predictions
Match context and why it matters
Gharraf welcome Naft Maysan to Iraq for an Iraqi League fixture scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UTC. It also carries a bit of end-of-season edge: newly-promoted Al-Gharraf SC are set to close out the 2025–2026 campaign at the Al-Gharraf Stadium in Dhi, and home finales often bring a slightly different tempo—either cautious to avoid mistakes, or open as teams chase a final positive result.
From a betting perspective, the market has Gharraf as a narrow favorite: Home win 2.12, Draw 3.05, Away win 3.20. That pricing suggests a competitive matchup rather than a clear mismatch, and the stats back that up.
League trends: what usually happens in the Iraqi League
Over the last four years (NT4.0 dataset), the Iraqi League has been fairly balanced:
Home wins: 38.5% | Draws: 32.7% | Away wins: 28.9%
That draw rate is high enough to keep “double chance” and draw-related angles relevant. Goal trends are also important for totals bettors:
Over 1.5 goals: 66.3%
Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%
Both teams to score: 48.1%
So, while it’s not a league where goal-fests are guaranteed, it’s also not a pure low-scoring environment—two goals happens in roughly two out of three matches.
Team performance profile: longer-term numbers vs recent form
Gharraf: results and scoring
Across their last 36 matches, Gharraf have won 27.8% and drawn 30.6%. Their games go over 1.5 goals 55.6% of the time, and BTTS lands 44.4%.
Recent form (last 10) paints a slightly more open picture: only 2 wins, but matches averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded, with 5/10 going over 2.5. That’s a noticeable jump in higher-scoring outcomes compared to their longer-term baseline.
Naft Maysan: results and scoring
Naft Maysan’s wider sample (last 97) shows a similar win rate: 25.8%, with draws at 33.0%. Their over 1.5 rate is stronger at 69.1%, and BTTS sits at 48.5%—both slightly above Gharraf.
In the last 10, Naft Maysan look more productive: 4 wins, averaging 1.9 scored and 1.5 conceded, and a big 7/10 over 2.5. Compared to their multi-year profile (over 2.5 at 43.3%), that recent run suggests a more aggressive rhythm—or at least matches that are breaking open more often.
How the AI tips fit the stats (and where to be cautious)
NerdyTips’ AI leans to:
Main tip: Over 1.5 goals at 1.35 (confidence 2.4/10)
1X2 lean: X2 (Naft Maysan or Draw) at 1.54 (trust 2.1)
Expected score: 1–1
Half-time call: 1–0
The logic behind Over 1.5 is supported by the broader data: league-wide it hits 66.3%, and Naft Maysan’s long-run rate is 69.1%. Even Gharraf, the lower of the two, still clears 50% over a meaningful sample. Add the recent form—especially Naft Maysan’s 7/10 over 2.5—and the “at least two goals” angle looks like the most natural totals entry point.
That said, the confidence scores are low. In practical betting terms, that’s a reminder to keep staking disciplined and avoid treating these as “locks.” If you’re building multiples, Over 1.5 is the type of leg that can make sense, but it shouldn’t be forced into every slip.
1X2 market: is there value in siding against the home favorite?
With Gharraf priced at 2.12, the market expects them to edge it—but only slightly. The AI’s X2 suggestion aligns with two themes:
1) Both teams have modest win rates over time (high draw tendency).
2) Naft Maysan’s recent form is stronger (4 wins vs 2 in the last 10), with higher scoring output.
If you like Naft Maysan’s momentum but respect the draw probability in this league, X2 is a reasonable compromise: you’re effectively betting that Gharraf don’t win, rather than needing Naft Maysan to take all three points.
Notable “surprise” results that hint at resilience
Two recent away performances stand out as examples of these teams being able to frustrate stronger opposition:
Gharraf held Al Zawraa to 0–0 away despite being priced around 6.75 to win.
Naft Maysan also drew away at Al Zawraa, finishing 1–1 with pre-match win odds around 6.0.
These don’t guarantee anything here, but they do support the idea that both sides can stay competitive in tough spots—another small tick in favor of draw protection angles like X2.
Best bets summary
Primary lean: Over 1.5 goals (1.35)
Supported by league trends and Naft Maysan’s strong over-1.5 profile, plus recent match tempo from both sides.
Secondary lean: X2 (1.54)
Fits the league’s draw rate and Naft Maysan’s slightly better recent results.
For more data-driven previews, you can also check NerdyTips football analysis.
More picks elsewhere
If you’re building a broader coupon and want options outside Iraq, here are predictions for Norway 2. Division Group 2.
Responsible betting note
Odds move, lineups and motivation can shift late in the season, and the AI trust levels here are modest. Keep stakes proportional, compare prices across books, and avoid chasing losses.