Quevilly vs Rouen: Predictions

A Rivalry Rekindled in National 1

The Derby de la Métropole is set to electrify the Championnat National on May 2, 2026, as Quevilly-Rouen Métropole technically hosts FC Rouen at their shared home, the historic Stade Robert Diochon. This isn’t just any match—it’s a clash of local pride, with both sides desperate to claim bragging rights in a fixture that often delivers drama. With kick-off at 18:30 UTC, bettors are eyeing a fascinating betting landscape, and the NerdyTips AI NT 4.0 has weighed in with a strong recommendation.

Odds and Key Predictions

The bookmakers see Rouen as the favorite, with away win odds at 1.92, while a home win is priced at 4.05 and a draw at 3.30. However, the AI’s top bet is 1X (home team to win or draw), carrying a confidence rating of 8.9/10 and odds of 1.85. This suggests that Quevilly, despite being underdogs, have a strong chance to avoid defeat. The 1×2 prediction leans toward a home win (7.6/10 confidence, odds 4.05), with an expected final score of 2:0 and a halftime lead of 1:0. For over/under markets, the AI tips over 1.5 goals (3.9/10 confidence, odds 1.40).

Statistical Breakdown

Looking at National 1 trends over the past four years, home teams have won 37.3% of matches, away sides 31.0%, and draws occurred 31.7% of the time. Notably, 71.1% of games featured over 1.5 goals, aligning with the AI’s tip. Quevilly’s historical record shows a 26.1% win rate in 157 games, while Rouen has won 42.6% of their 108 matches. Both teams have similar draw rates (around 32%), and over 1.5 goals has been common—65.6% for Quevilly and 71.3% for Rouen.

Recent form adds context: Quevilly has won 4 of their last 10 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 6 matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Their possession averages 46.3% with 6.3 shots per game. Rouen, meanwhile, has only 2 wins in their last 10, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1.3, with 5 games over 2.5 goals. They hold 52% possession and take 10 shots per game. The AI projects a similar split: 46% possession for Quevilly, 54% for Rouen, with the home side managing 6 shots (3 on target) and the visitors 9 shots (4 on target). Corners favor Rouen 7-2, while yellow cards lean Quevilly 2-1.

Head-to-Head and Recent Surprises

In their last meeting on April 18, 2025, Quevilly won 2-1 as underdogs (odds 2.8). That result echoes their ability to punch above their weight. More recently, Quevilly stunned Orleans away on April 24, 2026, winning 3-0 at odds of 5.75. Rouen also defied expectations, drawing 1-1 away to Nancy in May 2025 with win odds of 6.28. These results highlight both teams’ capacity for upsets, adding intrigue to this derby.

Betting Insights and Strategy

The AI’s 1X bet (home win or draw) at 1.85 offers solid value, especially given Quevilly’s recent form and home advantage in a derby setting. The over 1.5 goals tip at 1.40 is statistically backed by league trends and both teams’ histories, though the lower confidence (3.9/10) suggests caution. For those seeking higher risk, the home win at 4.05 aligns with the AI’s 1×2 prediction and Quevilly’s upset potential.

Final Thoughts

This Derby de la Métropole promises intensity, and the data points to Quevilly holding their own. Whether you follow the AI’s top pick or explore the outright win, the stats favor a close contest with goals. For more insights, check out Ligue 1 predictions to refine your betting strategy.