Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Turkey
Preview
The Yeni Adana Stadyumu will host a tale of two extremes this Monday evening as 19th-placed Adanaspor welcome promotion-chasing Erzurum BB in a 1. Lig fixture that, on paper, looks as lopsided as they come. The 28-point gulf between these sides tells its own story—but football, as we know, rarely sticks to the script.
Adanaspor’s €6.5m squad might need to sell a few stadium hotdogs to match Erzurum BB’s €7m valuation, but money doesn’t always decide matches. The hosts, languishing in the relegation zone with just 27 points, are given a mere 20% chance by the bookies (6.09 odds), while Erzurum BB strut into this game as firm favorites at 1.43. The draw? A lukewarm 4.15, as if no one quite believes in it.
Our numbers suggest a cagey affair. With only 27.2% of 1. Lig games exceeding 3.5 goals this season, the under 3.5 at 1.33 odds feels like the sensible play. Expect Erzurum BB to dominate possession (56% projected), but their expected shots (9 total, 3 on target) barely edge out Adanaspor’s 8 (2 on target). This isn’t a team that bulldozes opponents—they grind.
Referee A. Şen’s likely card-happy performance (3 yellows for Adanaspor, 2 for Erzurum BB) could further disrupt any flow, making this a stop-start contest rather than a goal fest.
Their last meeting in February 2022 ended 1-1, though the odds back then (Adanaspor 3.05, Erzurum BB 2.14) hinted at a far tighter contest than today’s mismatch. Adanaspor’s recent 1-1 draw at Yeni Corumspor (6.09 odds) and Erzurum BB’s scrappy 1-2 win at 76 Igdir Belediyespor (6.097 odds) prove that underdogs do bite—especially when pride’s at stake.
Erzurum BB will likely control the tempo, but their Achilles’ heel has been converting dominance into goals. Adanaspor, meanwhile, will sit deep, absorb pressure, and pray for a moment of magic or a set-piece lifeline. The league’s 50% BTTS rate suggests both teams scoring isn’t out of the question, but the smarter bet leans toward a low-scoring grind.
Here’s where we indulge in a little footballing romance. That 2-1 Adanaspor win at 6.09 odds? It’s more hopeful than data-driven—but isn’t football about those fleeting moments of madness? Our model gives it a modest 1.4/10 confidence, yet history is littered with these upsets. A goalless first half (0-0 HT at decent odds) feels plausible before the game bursts into life late on.
Adanaspor’s 19th-place aura versus Erzurum BB’s chasing-promotion swagger makes for a fascinating psychological duel. The visitors can’t afford slip-ups, but pressure does funny things to teams. One mistimed tackle, one moment of hesitation—and suddenly, the underdogs are barking.
For NerdyTips’ readers, the smart play is under 3.5 goals. If you’re feeling adventurous, a small stake on Adanaspor’s 2-1 miracle might just scratch that itch for drama. Either way, this isn’t a game to go all-in on. Sometimes, the beauty lies in the tension—and this one’s got it in spades.
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The odd of the best tip is increasing. The initial odd was: 1.25
U3.5 -303
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -3031 509
Adanaspor is expected to win with odds of 509Under 3.5 -303
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes 100
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 207
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
2:1
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|
3
-
3
-
7
|
|
 Adanaspor |
14-Apr-25
0:3
| Erzurum BB  |
| Erzurum BB |
07-Dec-24
1:0
| Adanaspor |
| Erzurum BB |
18-Feb-24
1:0
| Adanaspor |
| Adanaspor |
24-Sep-23
1:0
| Erzurum BB |
| Erzurum BB |
12-Nov-22
3:2
| Adanaspor |
| Adanaspor |
21-Feb-22
1:1
| Erzurum BB |
| Erzurum BB |
25-Sep-21
3:1
| Adanaspor |
| Adanaspor |
17-Feb-20
0:0
| Erzurum BB |
| Erzurum BB |
20-Sep-19
2:1
| Adanaspor |
Recent Matches of Adanaspor
Recent Matches of Erzurum BB
| 31 Jan | Erzurumspor. |
- |
Sariyer. | |
| 24 Jan | W |  Pendikspor. |
1:2 |
Erzurumspor. |
Turkey - 1. Lig| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Kocaelispor | 38 | 68-41 | 72 |
| 2 |
Genclerbirligi | 38 | 57-34 | 68 |
| 3 |
Fatih | 38 | 55-36 | 66 |
| 4 |
Bandırmaspor | 38 | 52-45 | 64 |
| 5 |
İstanbulspor | 38 | 67-38 | 64 |
| 6 |
Erzurum BB | 38 | 53-31 | 64 |
| 7 |
Boluspor | 38 | 66-40 | 61 |
| 8 |
76 Iğdır | 38 | 57-33 | 58 |
| 9 |
Amed | 38 | 43-35 | 57 |
| 10 |
Yeni | 38 | 49-45 | 54 |
| 11 |
Ümraniyespor | 38 | 48-42 | 53 |
| 12 |
Erokspor | 38 | 53-50 | 52 |
| 13 |
Sakaryaspor | 38 | 48-54 | 51 |
| 14 |
Keçiörengüc | 38 | 60-53 | 51 |
| 15 |
Manisa BBSK | 38 | 50-52 | 48 |
| 16 |
Pendikspor | 38 | 45-51 | 48 |
| 17 |
Ankaragucu | 38 | 49-48 | 48 |
| 18 |
Şanlıurfaspo | 38 | 45-55 | 40 |
| 19 |
Adanaspor | 38 | 32-75 | 30 |
| 20 |
Yeni | 38 | 14-153 | -21 |
