Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Brazil
Bahia de Feira
€25.00Th.
Fluminens
€200.00Th.
Preview
Welcome to our detailed analysis for this intriguing Baiano - 2 fixture. Our Bahia de Feira vs Fluminense De Feira prediction delves into one of the most fascinating betting puzzles of the week. On Saturday, July 12, 2025, all eyes will be on the Estádio Jodilton Souza as the hosts, backed by the bookmakers, take on a side that, on paper, holds a significant advantage. This creates a classic battle between market sentiment and raw data, and we're here to dissect it for you.
At first glance, the market seems to have made up its mind. The bookmakers have priced a home win for Bahia de Feira at odds of 2.35, making them the slight favourites. A draw sits at 2.35, while an away victory for Fluminense De Feira is considered the least likely outcome at a tempting 2.350. This pricing suggests the market is heavily weighing factors beyond simple team quality.
What could be driving this? Several possibilities exist:
Whatever the reason, the market is telling a story of a confident home side. But there's a glaring contradiction when we look at the numbers.
Here is where our analysis takes a sharp turn. A look at the estimated squad valuations presents a completely different picture. The home team, Bahia de Feira, is valued at a modest €25.00k. In stark contrast, their opponents, Fluminense De Feira, boast a squad valued at approximately €200.00k. That's an eight-fold difference in on-paper talent and investment. In a purely logical world, the team with significantly more valuable assets should not be a 2.350 underdog. This discrepancy is the kind of inefficiency that value-seeking bettors dream of.
Our predictive model, which prioritizes tangible data like squad value over market sentiment, flags this fixture as a prime opportunity. It cuts through the noise and focuses on the underlying quality gap. The model's primary suggestion is to challenge the bookmakers' narrative.
The AI's top tip is an X2 (Fluminense De Feira to win or draw), available at attractive odds of 1.5. This bet covers two of the three possible outcomes and directly opposes the market's favouritism for the home side. Now, the model has assigned this a low trust score of 1.2/10. This isn't a sign of weak conviction; rather, it's an acknowledgement of the match's inherent volatility and the factors (like home advantage) that make it a tight contest. It's a signal of caution, not a red flag.
Furthermore, the AI anticipates a cagey, tactical affair, which is common in local derbies where stakes are high. This leads to our secondary tip: Under 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.48. The logic is sound: the stronger team playing away may be more pragmatic, while the home side will likely set up to be defensively solid and hard to break down.
When we combine these two data-driven insights, a clear picture of the match emerges. The most logical conclusion is a narrow, hard-fought result decided by a single moment of quality. This is perfectly encapsulated by our AI's final score prediction.
This 0:1 scoreline is the perfect synthesis of our analysis. It secures the X2 bet and comfortably lands under the 2.5 goals threshold. It paints a vivid picture of Fluminense De Feira leveraging their superior quality to grind out a crucial away win in a tense, low-scoring battle. For anyone crafting a Bahia de Feira vs Fluminense De Feira prediction, ignoring the immense value disparity seems like a missed opportunity.
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Derby match
X2 -200
Fluminens to win or draw with odds of -200X2 -200
Fluminens to win or drawUnder 2.5 -196
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -137
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U3.5 -108
Away win/draw and under 3.5 goals
0:1
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3
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0
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 Fluminens |
05-Jul-25
1:1
| Bahia F  |
| Fluminens |
24-May-25
1:1
| Bahia F |
| Bahia F |
07-Mar-21
6:3
| Fluminens |
| Fluminens |
02-Feb-20
1:1
| Bahia F |
Recent Matches of Bahia F| 14 Jan | L |
Bahia F.
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0:3
| Bahia.
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| 11 Jan | D |
Juazeirense.
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0:0
| Bahia F.
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Recent Matches of Fluminens
Brazil - Baiano - 2| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Itabuna | 9 | 20-7 | 23 |
| 2 |
Bahia de Feira | 9 | 28-5 | 20 |
| 3 |
Fluminense De | 9 | 16-5 | 20 |
| 4 |
Galícia | 9 | 20-9 | 15 |
| 5 |
Ypiranga BA | 9 | 11-9 | 13 |
| 6 |
Vitoria Da Con | 8 | 8-11 | 11 |
| 7 |
SSA | 9 | 10-8 | 10 |
| 8 |
Leonico | 8 | 12-20 | 7 |
| 9 |
Teixeira de Fr | 9 | 0-24 | 1 |
| 10 |
Grapiuna Itabu | 9 | 4-31 | 1 |
