Fénix and Deportivo Merlo face off in the Primera B Metropolitana on March 1, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, with the action unfolding at Estadio Club San Miguel de las Heras. The odds suggest a close contest, but our AI has crunched the numbers and found the best betting angle: under 2.5 goals at 1.38 odds.

Betting Analysis & Predictions

The odds paint an interesting picture: Fénix at 3.1 for a home win, a draw at 2.8, and Deportivo Merlo as slight favorites at 2.38. However, our AI’s confidence in a Deportivo Merlo win is only 2.8/10, making this a risky bet. Instead, the safest play appears to be the under 2.5 goals market, backed by a trust rating of 4.1/10.

Why? Because history tells us that goals are often scarce in this league. Only 33.3% of matches see more than 2.5 goals, and just 15% go over 3.5. Add to that our AI’s predicted scoreline of 0:1 and a goalless first half, and it’s clear this could be a low-scoring affair.

Head-to-Head & Team Value

Fénix won their last meeting against Deportivo Merlo 2-0 on June 18, 2024, despite being slight underdogs. However, looking at squad values, Deportivo Merlo (€175K) significantly outweighs Fénix (€10K), which could explain why the visitors are favored this time.

Both teams have pulled off surprise away wins in the past—Fénix stunned Colegiales at 7.0 odds, while Deportivo Merlo shocked Argentino Quilmes at 5.8 odds. But with neither side known for high-scoring games, expecting fireworks might be wishful thinking.

Best Bet & Final Thoughts

The safest bet? Under 2.5 goals at 1.38 odds. It’s not the most lucrative, but given the stats, it’s the most logical. If you’re feeling adventurous, a 0:1 correct score bet could offer value. Either way, expect a tight, tactical battle rather than a goal-fest.