HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction - Oct 15, 2026

Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction: Poljud Test Awaits

Our HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction takes us to Stadion Poljud on October 15, 2026, with kick-off set for 17:45 GMT. The opening round of the Conference League league phase brings together local belief, Dutch quality and one of Europe’s loudest crowds.

Momentum meets experience in Split

Hajduk arrive with confidence after beating Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 in the Eternal Derby on October 10. Gonzalo Garcia’s team also sit second in Croatia’s HNL, collecting 16 points from eight matches through five wins, one draw and two defeats. Poljud, expected to welcome around 34,000 supporters, should be at full volume. Torcida rarely needs encouragement, especially after a derby victory.

Garcia demands hard defensive running and constant movement from his attackers. That approach previously created some tension with Marko Livaja, but it also opened the door for Michele Šego. The forward has responded with 13 goals in all competitions and should be Hajduk’s main threat. Roko Brajkovic and Adrion Pajaziti are unavailable, limiting the hosts’ options.

Ajax reached this stage by defeating Sion 9-5 on aggregate, winning 4-2 away and 5-3 at home. Those results showed attacking power, although defending occasionally looked like an optional extra. Spanish coach Míchel Sánchez is expected to use a 4-3-3, with Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen and Julian Brandt controlling midfield. Viktor Tsygankov and Oscar Gloukh can provide width, while Tolu Arokodare is likely to lead the attack.

Ajax have injury concerns involving Anton Gaaei, Caio Henrique, Daley Blind, Steven Berghuis and Kasper Dolberg. Aaron Bouwman has returned, while Simon Adingra and Yves Bissouma could feature after joining the squad. Marc ter Stegen is expected in goal behind Thilo Kehrer and Youri Baas.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction and Betting Tips

The market makes Ajax strong favourites, and NerdyTips’ model agrees. The visitors have a squad value of €228.45m, compared with Hajduk’s €33.28m. Money does not sing as loudly as Torcida, but that difference helps explain the expected control.

• Best 1X2 bet: Ajax to win at 1.8240, trust rating 8.8/10
• Goals tip: Over 2.5 goals at 1.8247, trust rating 8.8/10
• Correct score: Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax
• Half-time prediction: Hajduk Split 0-1 Ajax

The forecast gives Ajax 63% possession and Hajduk 37%. It also projects 21 shots for the visitors, including seven on target, against eight attempts and three on target for the hosts. That pressure supports both the away-win and over 2.5 betting tips.

Ajax are expected to win the corner count 6-3, producing nine overall. The card forecast is three for Hajduk and two for Ajax, understandable if the home side spends long periods chasing possession.

Surprises remain possible. Hajduk drew 1-1 away to Dinamo in December 2025 despite win odds of 4.50, while Ajax won 2-1 at Villarreal in January 2026 at huge odds of 8.50. With no major recent head to head trend to lean on, current quality matters most. The final HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction is an away victory, but probably only after Ajax survive a noisy and uncomfortable evening.