Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction

Levski vs Botev Plovdiv prediction with story and stats

The Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv prediction starts with a simple picture: winter sunlight over the Georgi Asparuhov Stadium, “Gerena” filling up early, and two teams arriving with very different worries. Kick-off is set for 15.050 GMT on 2026-02-15 (17:00 local time), and the league table already writes half the script: Levski are 1st on 47 points, while Botev sit 11th with 22. Still, Bulgarian football loves a plot twist.

Match context: pressure at the top, hope in the middle

Levski come into this one with fresh bruises from the Cup. On February 11 they lost 1-0 to Ludogorets in the quarter-finals, the kind of result that makes a title-chasing crowd look at the next match like it’s a “must-win” even in February. The league form is steadier: the recent 3-1 win over Botev Vratsa reminded everyone that Levski can turn a good 20 minutes into three points.

Botev, meanwhile, arrive after a 0-0 with Beroe on February 8. It was the type of draw that coaches call “solid” and fans call “I’ll forget it by Monday.” They’re searching for consistency and a big result that could pull them toward the top-six conversation.

The Oko-Flex storyline: football with paperwork on the side

The main talking point is not a formation board, but a release clause. Winger Armstrong Oko-Flex moved from Botev to Levski in January 2026 after triggering a €300,000 clause, and Botev’s leadership has publicly called the move improper, even “illegal” in their view. Complaints have reportedly been sent to the BFS and FIFA, with Botev seeking sanctions.

So if Oko-Flex features, expect every touch to be “greeted” loudly. Gerena can be welcoming, but it can also remember everything.

Tactical notes: Genchev’s control vs Kerkez’s patience

Stanislav Genchev usually sets Levski in a 4-2-3-1, built on pressing and order. After the Cup defeat, a small rotation would make sense, but the idea stays the same: win the ball early, keep the opponent in their half, and feed a striker like Mustapha Sangaré with quick deliveries. Svetoslav Vutsov may get the nod in goal if Genchev wants fresh legs.

Dušan Kerkez has already hinted Botev must be “smart” and organized. That typically means a deeper block and quick counters, with Todor Nedelev as the main brain in midfield. Botev’s best moments could come when Levski push numbers forward and the first pass out beats the press.

Team news snapshot

• Levski doubts: Christian Makoun (muscle issue), Fabien (fitness).
• Levski additions: J. Perea and Oko-Flex expected in the squad.
• Botev out: Henrique Jocú (ankle), Georgi Nikolov (knee recovery).
• Botev winter signings: Zakaria Tindano, Edson Silva, Emerson Rodriguez.

Head to head and the mood in Sofia

Historically, Levski have had the upper hand in this head to head: 35 wins in 54 meetings, with Botev taking 11. The most recent H2H on 2025.053-30 ended 1-1, a reminder that Botev can survive even when they’re not favourites. And both clubs have recent proof that odds are not a law: Levski drew 1-1 away to PAOK in 2022 despite being priced around 7.0, and Botev held CSKA Sofia to 1-1 in July 2025 when CSKA were around 1.53.

Our numbers: Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv prediction and tips

Now to the data-driven part of the story. The betting odds are loud: Home win 1.33, Draw 5.05, Away win 9.0. NerdyTips’ AI agrees with the market and points to 1 (Levski win) as the best wager, rated 8.8/10 for confidence at 1.33. Our own analysis goes even stronger: 1 is the most likely 1X2 outcome with 10.0 confidence, also at 1.33.

Why? The forecasts reflect a match played mostly on Botev’s side of the pitch:

• Possession: Levski 69% vs Botev 31%
• Total shots: 13 vs 6 (on target: 5 vs 1)
• Corners: 6 vs 3 (total 9)
• Yellow cards: 1 vs 3 (Botev chasing more often)
• Squad value: €25.75m vs €12.09m

Total goals angle

For total goals, our AI leans to over 2.5 at odds 1.67, but with a more cautious trust score (5.1). That reads like this: Levski should create enough, but Botev’s plan will be to slow the game down. If Levski score early, the over looks much happier.

Final call: scoreline and match rhythm

The projected final score is 3-1, with a half-time prediction of 2-0. In plain words: Levski start fast, Botev absorb, and the second half opens up. That fits the tactical picture, the shots-on-target gap, and the emotion around Gerena. The Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv prediction is a home win—just don’t be surprised if Botev spend the first 20 minutes acting like time is a negotiable concept.