Talleres vs Gimnasia Prediction

Talleres vs Gimnasia prediction: Round 5 story and tips

Mark your calendars for 2026-02-14 at 22:45 GMT, because Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes hosts a meeting that feels bigger than a normal early-season date. This Talleres vs Gimnasia prediction preview lands in Round 5 of the Liga Profesional Argentina (Apertura 2026), and it carries a nice mix of pressure, nostalgia, and opportunity—especially for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza on their long-awaited return to the top tier.

Context, tactics, and why this game matters

Talleres have started the new league campaign with uneven steps (one win, two losses), and Carlos Tevez has not hidden his frustration about consistency—calling a recent defeat to Platense his worst performance in charge. Still, the Copa Argentina brought a calmer week: a 2–0 win over Argentino de Merlo on February 4, the kind of clean result that helps a team “find its identity,” as Tevez put it.

Gimnasia Mendoza arrive with a different emotion. After promotion in 2025, they’re playing their first top-flight season in 41 years, and they’ve already shown they won’t just pose for the team photo. Two wins and two losses is a competitive start, and that historic 1–0 away win at Central Córdoba in their debut match set a tone: compact, brave, and ready to counter.

Players and absences to track

• Talleres threats: Augusto Schott has been the early scorer, while Giovanni Baroni has set the rhythm with assists; Matías Galarza remains the midfield distributor.
• Gimnasia keys: Valentino Simoni brings the penalty-box danger, and veteran keeper César Rigamonti has been decisive in tight scorelines.
• Injuries: Talleres miss Diego Valoyes and Mateo Cáceres; Ronaldo Martínez should be available. Gimnasia are without Brian Andrada and Nicolás Romano, plus longer-term issues for I. González and B. Armoa.

There’s also off-pitch texture: Gimnasia’s stadium expansion plan signals “we’re here to stay,” while Talleres have dealt with unwanted headlines after a security incident at club headquarters.

Talleres vs Gimnasia prediction and sports betting angles

From a sports betting view, the value gap is clear: Talleres are priced like the stronger side, and the squad valuations underline it (€35.255m vs €12.68m). The betting odds sit at 1.87 for a home win, 3.15 for the draw, and 5.25 for an away win—numbers that fit a match where Gimnasia may defend deep and hope to steal moments.

• Best tip: HS (home team will score) at 1.3, trust 7.8/10. With Tevez pushing a more physical approach and Gimnasia missing pieces, one Talleres goal looks like the most stable read.
• 1x2 market: prediction 1 (home win) with confidence 5.25 and odds 1.87. It’s not “banker” territory, but it matches the home edge at the Kempes.
• Goals: under 2.5 is rated most likely (odds 1.45, trust 4.8). That lower trust hints at risk, yet the tactical picture—Tevez seeking control, Broggi prioritizing shape—leans to fewer chances.

Our model’s final score call is 1:0, with 0:0 at half-time. That mirrors a game script where Talleres probe patiently, Gimnasia protect the middle, and one decisive sequence settles it. For head to head history, this is a rare top-flight meeting after decades, so form and game plans matter more than old records—yet the upset reminders are real: Talleres once nicked a 1–1 at River with long odds, and Gimnasia previously shocked Unión away at 7.0. In other words: back the logic, but respect the chaos.