Tondela vs Alverca Prediction

Tondela vs Alverca prediction: tight night in Tondela

The Tondela vs Alverca prediction for 2026-02-13 (20:45 GMT) feels like one of those Primeira Liga evenings where the table pressure is louder than the crowd. Tondela return to Estádio João Cardoso needing points for survival, while Alverca travel north trying to keep their “newly promoted, no fear” season on track.

Match context, tactics, and what to expect early on

Round 22 comes with two very different moods. Tondela are stuck in 17th and every home game now carries the tone of a “must not lose.” Alverca, sitting 10th, can play with more freedom, but they have also shown that one shaky spell can quickly turn into a long night.

Match details

• League: Primeira Liga (Liga Portugal Betclic), Round 22
• Date & time: 2026-02-13, 20:45 GMT
• Venue: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Tondela: survival mode, structure first

Cristiano Bacci has been trying to make Tondela harder to play against since replacing Ivo Vieira in November 2025. The idea is simple: defend with discipline, avoid chaos, and build attacks in a more direct way when the moment is right. They often lean into right-sided attacks, long balls to skip pressure, and plenty of crosses—yet the season story has been that finishing those chances is easier said than done.

They did show grit recently, including a morale-raising 0-0 against Benfica (Feb 1) and an eye-catching 2-2 away draw at Estoril (Feb 7). That Estoril result mattered: Tondela weren’t supposed to keep up in a game where the pre-match win odds were long, but they stayed in the fight and earned a point.

Tondela form and notes

• League position: 17th
• Recent form (last 5): D-L-L-L-W
• Key names: Pedro Henryque (top scorer), Bernardo Fontes (GK), Bryan Medina

Alverca: width, transitions, and a midfield headache

Alverca’s season has been one of the better surprises in the league. Custódio Castro has regularly used a 3-4-3, stretching teams wide and then snapping forward in quick transitions. The problem is the “engine room” has taken hits: Sabit Abdulai’s injury is a big loss, and with Alex Amorim sold to Genoa in January, the middle of the pitch needs redesigning rather than simple replacement.

Form-wise, Alverca have looked like a team still learning the week-to-week grind of the top flight. A 1-1 draw against Estrela da Amadora showed their baseline is solid, but the 5-0 defeat to Braga was a reminder that when the structure breaks, it can break fast.

Alverca form and notes

• League position: 10th
• Recent form (last 5): D-L-W-D-L
• Key names: Marko Milovanovic (top scorer)

Injuries, absences, and selection quirks

This fixture has a bit of that “who can patch the squad better” energy.

• Tondela absences/doubts: Ivan Cavaleiro (major doubt), Rony Lopes (fitness), João Silva (ankle), Yaya Sithole & Rémy Vita (recently absent/international duty)
• Tondela boost: Bryan Medina returns from suspension
• Alverca absences/doubts: Sabit Abdulai (long-term), Diarra & Tiago Mendes (muscle issues), Sandro Lima (training limited)
• Goalkeeper note: André Gomes is ineligible (loan rule), so Matheus Mendes is expected to start

Head to head: a small edge to Alverca lately

If you like reading the head to head page before picking your betting tips, it nudges you toward the visitors. Tondela have not beaten Alverca in their last three professional meetings, and Alverca have won two of the last three. Their most recent meeting on 2025-05-11 ended 1-2 (Tondela 1, Alverca 2). Even earlier this season (September 2025), Alverca reportedly took a 1-0 win, reinforcing the idea that this matchup has suited them recently.

Odds, betting tips, and NerdyTips AI picks

The market sees this as balanced, and the prices back that up. Tondela are slight home favourites, but only slightly—more “home advantage exists” than “home team should control the night.”