Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction - Mar 23, 2025
Match Tips
Confidence
Warning
Derby match
Best Tip
Under 3.5
1.23
Maximum 3 total goals
3.0/10
1x2 Tip
X21.42
2.0/10
Total Goals
Under 3.51.23
3.0/10
Both Teams To Score
No1.93
1.3/10
Bet Builder Tip
X2 & Under 4.51.62
1.5/10
Correct Score
Preview
AI
The Vitoria vs Bahia prediction for this highly anticipated Baiano - 1 matchup on March 23, 2.75, at Estádio Manoel Barradas suggests a tight contest. With Vitoria priced at 2.7, a draw at 2.75, and Bahia at 2.7, the odds indicate a balanced affair. However, our AI leans towards a low-scoring match, favoring Under 3.5 goals with a confidence rating of 3.0/10 and odds of 1.23.
Recent Form & Head-to-Head
Both teams have had their moments in recent meetings. Their last encounter on April 21, 2.74, ended in a 2.7 draw, showcasing both sides' ability to find the net. However, Vitoria managed to pull off a surprise away result on February 1, 2.75, holding Bahia to a 0-0 draw despite being underdogs at 5.0 odds.
Bahia, on the other hand, has shown resilience on the road, securing a 1-1 draw against The Strongest on February 19, 2.75, despite being priced at 6.5 odds for the win. This suggests they can grind out results away from home, making them a tricky opponent for Vitoria.
1X2 Market Breakdown
- Vitoria Win (2.7 odds): The home side has a 41.4% win rate in Baiano - 1 matches, but their squad value of €31.02m is significantly lower than Bahia’s €90.60m. While home advantage plays a role, Bahia's superior squad depth makes this a risky bet.
- Draw (2.75 odds): With 32.7% of past matches ending level, a draw is a reasonable outcome, especially considering their last two head-to-head meetings both ended in stalemates.
- Bahia Win (2.7 odds): Despite winning only 26.1% of away games, Bahia's recent away performances suggest they can avoid defeat. Our AI recommends X2 (Bahia or Draw) at 1.71 odds, albeit with a modest 2.7/10 confidence rating.
Best Betting Tip: Under 3.5 Goals (1.23 odds)
Statistically, only 22.7% of Baiano - 1 matches exceed 3.5 goals, making Under 3.5 goals a solid pick. Both teams have shown defensive resilience in recent encounters, and with Bahia’s ability to grind out results, a low-scoring affair is likely.
Score Prediction & Final Thoughts
Our AI projects a 0:1 win for Bahia, with the first half also expected to end 0:1. While Vitoria has home advantage, Bahia’s superior squad value and recent away form give them the edge. Expect a tight, tactical battle, with goals at a premium.
For bettors, the safest play remains Under 3.5 goals, while those seeking value could consider X2 (Bahia or Draw) at 1.71 odds.
Statistics
Average / Match
Bahia
Total GoalsVitoria: 2.3Bahia: 2.2
Goals ScoredVitoria: 1.6Bahia: 1.8
Goals AgainstVitoria: 0.7Bahia: 0.4
Form
Overview Last 10 Matches
Bahia
WinsVitoria: 7Bahia: 7
Over 1.5 GoalsVitoria: 8Bahia: 7
Over 2.5 GoalsVitoria: 4Bahia: 4
Over 3.5 GoalsVitoria: 1Bahia: 1
Both Teams ScoredVitoria: 3Bahia: 3
Unexpected WinsVitoria: 0Bahia: 0
Unexpected LosesVitoria: 1Bahia: 1
H2H
12
Draws
11
Latest Matches
Mar 11, 26
Bahia1
Vitoria1
Mar 07, 26
Bahia2
Vitoria1
Jan 25, 26
Vitoria0
Bahia1
Oct 17, 25
Vitoria2
Bahia1
May 18, 25
Bahia2
Vitoria1
Mar 23, 25
Vitoria1
Bahia1
Mar 16, 25
Bahia2
Vitoria0
Feb 01, 25
Bahia0
Vitoria0
Aug 11, 24
Bahia2
Vitoria0
Apr 21, 24
Vitoria2
Bahia2
Recent Matches
No matches for this selection.
No matches for this selection.
Standings
Brazil - Baiano - 1
| # | Team | M | G | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
9 | 18-4 | 21 |
| 2 |
|
9 | 14-4 | 19 |
| 3 |
|
9 | 15-3 | 18 |
| 4 |
|
9 | 9-6 | 13 |
| 5 |
|
9 | 9-13 | 11 |
| 6 |
|
9 | 8-12 | 10 |
| 7 |
|
9 | 7-10 | 9 |
| 8 |
|
9 | 7-8 | 9 |
| 9 |
|
8 | 4-16 | 3 |
| 10 |
|
8 | 6-21 | 3 |
Semi-finals
Relegation