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Zwolle

€22.55m

13 Mar14:00
1 : 1

Groningen

€32.25m

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Zwolle vs Groningen Prediction Eredivisie

Zwolle vs Groningen prediction: goals, grit, and value

The Zwolle vs Groningen prediction starts with a simple truth: this is Eredivisie Round 27 (Friday, 13 March 2026, 19:00 GMT) and both teams are still doing the “one more win and we can breathe” math. PEC Zwolle host at MAC³PARK Stadion with three draws in a row, while FC Groningen arrive with the kind of confidence that only comes from beating Ajax 3-1 a week ago.

Table pressure, recent form, and what it means

Groningen sit 11th on 31 points and Zwolle are 13th on 28, so it’s close enough that one good night can change the mood fast. Zwolle’s recent story is resilience: a 0-0 against Ajax, then an 85th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 at Sparta thanks to Kaj de Rooij. Groningen’s story is momentum: they were 1-1 at half-time against Ajax on 7 March, then flew through the second half to win 3-1.

  • Zwolle trend: hard to beat lately, but also hard to separate from opponents (three straight draws).
  • Groningen trend: higher ceiling, and they have proved they can perform away from home (0-0 at Ajax earlier in the season too).
  • Market context: odds lean away (2.2.77) over home (2.77), with draw at 3.55.

Team news that can shape the tactics

Groningen’s big issue is in midfield. Captain Stije Resink is out long-term with a serious knee injury, and that removes leadership and balance. Dick Lukkien usually keeps things orderly in a 4-4-2, but without Resink, the middle can become a “work in progress”, likely leaning on younger legs like Tygo Land. They do get a lift with attacker Younes Taha expected back after suspension, while Tika de Jonge, Mark Hoekstra and E. van der Laan remain sidelined.

Zwolle have had emotional news too: Samir Lagsir’s early retirement at just 22 due to chronic knee problems. On the pitch, Hendrik van der Vegt has them defending with pride and playing for moments—set-pieces, quick breaks, and late surges. They’ve also had availability concerns around Jasper Schendelaar, plus issues involving Damian van der Haar and Jamiro Alvarenga, with Simon Graves and Jan Faberski recently dealing with suspensions.

Players who can swing a bet

  • Shola Shoretire (Zwolle): named Johan Cruyff Talent of the Month for February; he adds spark in transition.
  • Koen Kostons (Zwolle): 10 league goals and the main finishing option.
  • Oskar Zawada (Groningen): match-winning brace off the bench vs Ajax; a serious “second-half problem”.
  • Thom van Bergen (Groningen): already hurt Ajax once and keeps defenders honest.

AI betting tips: stats, angles, and best play

Our Zwolle vs Groningen prediction leans into goals. NerdyTips’ recommended betting tip is Over 2.52 goals at 1.7, confidence 6.4/10. The model’s expected pattern is open enough to create chances at both ends: possession forecast 53% Zwolle, 47% Groningen, with shots projected at 12 vs 14 and on-target at 5 vs 4. That’s not chaos, but it’s steady pressure—exactly what makes an Over live.

  • Best bet: Over 2.52 goals (6.4/10) @ 1.7
  • 1X2 lean: Draw (trust 2.0) @ 3.55
  • Correct score call: 2-2 (half-time 1-1)

The draw idea also fits the wider story. Zwolle recently held Utrecht away as huge underdogs (5.7) in a 1-1, so they are comfortable surviving tough spells. Groningen, even with the higher squad value (€32.25m vs Zwolle’s €22.525m), have to rebuild their midfield rhythm without Resink. Add the head to head note—Zwolle won 2-0 in the last meeting on 18 May 2025—and you get a match where neither side should feel safe, but both feel they can score.

For extra context: the model expects 11 corners (5-6 split) and just 1 yellow card each, suggesting a competitive game without constant stoppages—another small plus for goal-based betting tips. If you want one clear angle for this head to head meeting, back the goals and let the table tension do the rest.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Zwolle didn't play better in the last H2H match!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Zwolle vs Groningen

O2.5 -143

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -143
6/10

1x2 Tip

X 255

The match is expected to end in a draw
2/10

Total Goals

Over 2.5 -143

At least 3 goals will be scored in the match
6/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes -179

Both teams are expected to score
5/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&O1.5 -118

Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
1/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:2

Stats Predictions

1.4
xG
1.75
53%
Ball Possession
47%
12
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Shots Off Goal
6
5
Corners
6
1
Yellow Cards
1

Average / Match

1.21
Expected Goals
1.7
3
Total Goals
2.9
1.5
Goals Scored
1.1
1.5
Goals Against
1.8
50%
Possession
49%
10.9
Total Shots
14.7
4.6
Shots on Goal
4.7
4.1
Shots off Goal
6.4
11.6
Fouls
10.2
4.8
Corners
6.6
1.6
Offsides
1.7
1.56
Yellow Cards
1.89
416
Total Passes
420

Overview Last 10 Matches

2
Wins
2
9
Over 1.5 Goals
9
6
Over 2.5 Goals
7
3
Over 3.5 Goals
3
9
Both Teams Scored
6
1
Unexpected Wins
0
1
Unexpected Loses
1

Head to Head

Zwolle
8 - 7 - 10
Groningen
Groningen Groningen 23-Nov-25
2:2
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 08-Dec-24
0:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 03-Dec-21
1:1
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 13-Feb-21
1:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 23-Feb-13
1:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 24-Nov-13
0:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 10-May-15
0:1
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 31-Oct-15
2:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 21-Sep-19
2:0
Zwolle Zwolle
Groningen Groningen 16-Apr-17
5:1
Zwolle Zwolle

Profile time Recent Matches of Zwolle

23 AprL PSV E PSV E 6 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1
12 AprD PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2 Excelsior Excelsior 2
05 AprL Ahead E Ahead E 5 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0
21 MarW Zwolle Zwolle 2 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1
13 MarD Zwolle Zwolle 1 Groningen Groningen 1
08 MarD S. Rotterdam S. Rotterdam 1 Zwolle Zwolle 1
01 MarD Zwolle Zwolle 0 Ajax Ajax 0
22 FebD Utrecht Utrecht 1 Zwolle Zwolle 1
15 FebL Heerenveen Heerenveen 4 Zwolle Zwolle 2
07 FebL Zwolle Zwolle 1 FC Volendam FC Volendam 2

Profile time Recent Matches Of Groningen

25 AprLFeyenoord Feyenoord 3 Groningen Groningen 1
11 AprDGroningen Groningen 0 Ahead E Ahead E 0
04 AprWTelstar Telstar 0 Groningen Groningen 2
22 MarWGroningen Groningen 3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0
13 MarDZwolle Zwolle 1 Groningen Groningen 1
07 MarWGroningen Groningen 3 Ajax Ajax 1
01 MarLFC Volendam FC Volendam 3 Groningen Groningen 2
22 FebLTwente Twente 2 Groningen Groningen 1
14 FebLGroningen Groningen 1 Utrecht Utrecht 2
08 FebLGroningen Groningen 1 PSV PSV 2

Netherlands - Eredivisie Netherlands - Eredivisie

Team M G P
1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven3084-4074
2 FeyenoordFeyenoord3062-4155
3 NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen3072-4854
4 TwenteTwente3051-3253
5 AjaxAjax3057-3751
6 AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar3052-4548
7 UtrechtUtrecht3049-3644
8 HeerenveenHeerenveen3053-5044
9 GroningenGroningen3042-3742
10 Sparta RotterdamSparta3136-5342
11 GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead3050-4536
12 Fortuna SittardFortuna3044-5536
13 PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle3040-6034
14 TelstarTelstar3143-5330
15 FC VolendamFC Volendam3031-5028
16 ExcelsiorExcelsior3031-5128
17 NAC BredaNAC Breda3030-5125
18 HeraclesHeracles3034-7719
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