Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor: Predictions

Mediterranean Derby Preview

Antalyaspor will host their regional rivals Alanyaspor at the Corendon Airlines Park (Antalya Stadium) on Sunday, May 3, 2026, at 20:00 local time. This Mediterranean derby in the Trendyol Süper Lig carries significant weight for both sides, with pride and positioning on the line. Known locally as the “Akdeniz Derbisi,” this fixture often delivers tense, low-scoring affairs, and the data supports a cautious approach for bettors.

Team Form and Key Stats

Antalyaspor have struggled recently, winning only 1 of their last 10 matches. They average just 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.8, with 4 of those games seeing over 2.5 goals. Their possession sits at 48.6%, and they manage 12.4 shots per match. At home, they have a 33.5% win rate over 167 games, but their recent form is concerning.

Alanyaspor also have just 1 win in their last 10 fixtures, but they score more freely at 1.3 goals per game while conceding 1.6. Six of their last 10 matches went over 2.5 goals. They average 49% possession and 11 shots per game. Their away record shows a 32.7% win rate over 165 matches, making them slightly more reliable on the road.

Recent head-to-head history favors Antalyaspor, who won 2-1 on March 28, 2025, with odds of 2.4 for the home side. However, current form suggests a tighter contest.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The odds for this derby are: Home victory – 3.15, Draw – 3.35, Away win – 2.32. The best tip, powered by the AI Football Analysis Platform, is AS (away team will score) with a 7.5/10 confidence and odds of 1.25. This aligns with Alanyaspor’s ability to find the net in 60% of their matches, while Antalyaspor have conceded in most games.

The 1×2 prediction leans toward an away win (2) with 2.2/10 confidence, but the low confidence suggests caution. The under/over prediction is under 3.5 goals with 3.3/10 confidence and odds of 1.32. This fits the historical trend: 69% of Süper Lig games stay under 3.5 goals, and both teams have modest scoring averages.

Score Prediction and Possession

The AI predicts a final score of 0:1 with a half-time score of 0:0. Possession is expected to be close: 51% for Antalyaspor, 49% for Alanyaspor. Shots are projected at 13-12 in favor of the home side, with 4-3 on target. Corners should be 5-4, and yellow cards are even at 2-2.

League Context and Trends

In the Süper Lig over the last four years, home teams win 44.7% of games, away teams win 28.8%, and draws occur 26.5% of the time. Both teams score in 56.2% of matches, while 77% go over 1.5 goals, 52.9% over 2.5, and 31% over 3.5. This derby’s predicted under 3.5 goals aligns with the league norm.

Antalyaspor’s recent draw against Basaksehir (0-0) as heavy underdogs (odds 6.5) shows their defensive resilience. Alanyaspor’s 2-2 draw with Besiktas (odds 6.25) highlights their attacking threat. Both results suggest a low-scoring, competitive match.

Betting Strategy

For bettors, the AS (away team to score) tip offers the best value at 1.25 odds with strong confidence. Pairing this with under 3.5 goals (1.32 odds) could create a solid accumulator. The away win at 2.32 is riskier but worth considering given Alanyaspor’s slightly better form and scoring record.

Avoid overcomplicating: focus on the away team scoring and a low total goals. The data consistently points to a tight, defensive derby where Alanyaspor edge ahead. Use the AI Football Analysis Platform for deeper insights and live updates.