La Guaira vs Caracas: Predictions

The Stage is Set for a Tense Capital Derby

The biggest football match in Venezuela’s capital is back. On February 14, 2026, Deportivo La Guaira and Caracas FC will face off in the Derbi Capitalino. This is more than just a game. It is a battle for local pride and crucial early-season points in the Primera División. Both teams call the Estadio Olímpico home, so the fight for supremacy in their own stadium adds extra fire. For bettors, this derby presents fascinating opportunities, especially when we dive into the data.

Understanding the Venezuelan Primera División

To make smart bets, knowing the league is key. Over the last four years, the Primera División has been a league where draws are very common. They happen in 41.5% of all matches. Home teams win 36.9% of the time, while away victories are rarer at 21.7%. This tells us that backing the home side often has value, but the draw is always a strong possibility.
Goals are not always guaranteed. Both teams score in less than half the games (42.7%). High-scoring matches are not the norm. Only 37.8% of games see over 2.5 goals. This league trend is crucial for our analysis of the derby.

Team Analysis: La Guaira vs. Caracas

Deportivo La Guaira: The Confident Hosts

La Guaira starts this derby with more confidence. They are third in the table after a win and a draw. Their new manager, Héctor Pablo Bidoglio, knows the club well. He likes his team to be disciplined in defense and fast on the counter-attack. Veteran striker Anthony Uribe is their main danger.
Their form shows a team that is solid but not spectacular. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded in their last 10 games. Historically, they win 44.1% of their matches. Importantly, 74.3% of their games feature over 1.5 goals, but only 46.7% have over 2.5 goals.

Caracas FC: The Patient Builders

Caracas is still searching for their first win under legendary player turned manager, Fernando Aristeguieta. They have drawn both their games. Aristeguieta is changing their style to a possession-based game. This takes time. They have a great goalkeeper in Wuilker Fariñez and a new striker, Jeriel De Santis, who needs to start scoring.
Their recent numbers are similar to La Guaira’s. They average 1.3 goals scored but concede 1.7 per game. They draw a lot—38.6% of their games historically end level. In their last 10, they only won twice. Like La Guaira, a high percentage of their games (69.3%) see over 1.5 goals, but the over 2.5 goals mark hits in 44.4% of matches.

Derby History and Key Stats

History heavily favors Caracas FC, with 27 wins in 41 meetings. But recently, La Guaira has been the better team, winning the 2025 aggregate title. Their last meeting in August 2025 ended in a 1-0 win for La Guaira.
Looking at both teams’ stats, a pattern emerges. While over 1.5 goals happens often, the jump to over 2.5 goals is less frequent. Both teams score in about 53% of each club’s games. This supports the idea of a competitive, but not necessarily goal-filled, derby.

Betting Tips and AI Predictions for the Derby

Now, let’s look at the betting market and what the data suggests. The basic odds are: La Guaira win at 1.85, Draw at 3.35, Caracas win at 4.10.
Our analysis, powered by NerdyTips AI NT 4.0, has identified clear value bets based on league patterns and team form.

The Top Bet: Under 2.5 Total Goals
This is our strongest recommendation. The AI gives this a confidence rating of 4.2/10 with odds of 1.62. Why?

1. League Trend: The Primera División has a low rate of high-scoring games (only 37.8% over 2.5 goals).
2. Team Form: Both teams average around 1.0-1.3 goals scored recently. Their defenses are not tight, but derbies are often cagey.
3. Match Context: Caracas is trying a new tactical system. La Guaira has a new manager. In such a high-pressure game, teams can be cautious. The predicted final score is 1-1.

The stats show that while over 1.5 goals is likely, pushing past 2.5 is less so. This makes Under 2.5 Goals the smart choice.

1X2 Market: Double Chance – La Guaira or Draw

For the match result, the suggestion is to play it safer. The tip is 1X (La Guaira win or Draw) at odds of 1.21. The confidence is lower at 2.0/10, but the logic is sound.
La Guaira is at home, in better form, and historically the home team has an edge in this league. Caracas is unbeaten but struggling to win. A draw is a very possible outcome, covering this with a La Guaira win provides a good safety net.

Other Betting Angles

The AI predicts a halftime score of 0-1. This suggests Caracas might start strong, but the game could level out. Betting on a draw at halftime could offer value.
Given that both teams score in over half of each team’s games, “Both Teams to Score” is a possibility. However, the derby pressure and the AI’s lean towards a 1-1 score makes “Yes” a moderate-risk option.

Final Verdict and Best Bet

The Derbi Capitalino between La Guaira and Caracas promises tension and passion. For bettors, the clearest path is following the data. The league is low-scoring, and both teams are in periods of tactical adjustment.
The best bet for this match is Under 2.5 Total Goals at 1.62. It aligns perfectly with the historical patterns of the Venezuelan league and the current form of both clubs. Expect a tight, nervous affair where a single moment of quality could decide it, likely ending in a 1-1 draw.
For more expert football analysis, check out our La Liga predictions. Good luck with your bets