Napredak vs Radnicki Nis: Match Predictions

Match context: pride, points, and a tight Super Liga battle

Valentine’s Day in Serbia brings more than a fixture—it brings the Derby of Southern Serbia. Napredak Kruševac welcome Radnički Niš to the Mladost Stadium in a matchup that usually delivers intensity rather than free-flowing chaos. With the Super Liga returning after the winter pause, both sides will want a fast start to the spring phase and a strong push toward the top-eight split that shapes the run-in.

The market reflects how close this looks on paper: Napredak win 2.6, Draw 3.1, Radnički Niš win 2.7. That near-pick’em pricing fits a derby where emotion runs high and margins tend to be small.

Super Liga trends: why low-scoring angles often make sense

Across the last four years of Serbian Super Liga data, home wins land at 40.5%, draws at 34.1%, and away wins at 25.4%. That draw rate is a reminder that many matches sit on a knife-edge—especially when teams are closely matched.

Goal trends are even more relevant for betting this fixture:
Over 3.5 goals happens in only 23.6% of league games, meaning under 3.5 lands about three-quarters of the time. Also, both teams scored in 41.4%, which supports the idea that plenty of games are decided by one side nicking it, or neither side fully clicking.

Those league-wide numbers line up neatly with the main recommendation for this match: keep expectations modest on total goals.

Team form snapshot: recent results vs longer-term identity

Napredak’s longer sample (last 145 matches) shows a 22.1% win rate with a 26.2% draw rate—a profile that often points to a team that can be stubborn, but not always clinical. In their most recent 10 games, they’ve managed 2 wins, scoring 1.1 goals per game and conceding 1.4. Interestingly, they’ve had 6/10 over 2.5 in that short run, which is a bit livelier than their multi-year baseline (44.1% over 2.5). That suggests their recent matches have opened up more than usual—whether by game state, opponent quality, or late-match swings.

Radnički Niš over the long term (last 152) look slightly stronger: 29.6% wins and 24.3% draws. In the last 10, they’ve posted 3 wins, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per match, with 5/10 over 2.5. Their broader profile leans a touch more attacking than Napredak’s: 52.6% over 2.5 and 52.0% BTTS across the larger dataset.

So what’s the takeaway? Recent form hints at some volatility, but the bigger picture still points to two sides that rarely turn games into shootouts—especially in a derby setting and immediately after a winter break.

Head-to-head and “proof of concept” results

Their last head-to-head (2025-05-18) finished Napredak 2–1 Radnički Niš, a reminder that this fixture can swing on moments rather than dominance. It’s also worth noting each side has shown they can disrupt stronger opponents: Napredak held a heavily fancied Čukarički to 1–1, while Radnički earned a headline-grabbing 0–0 away draw at Partizan as big outsiders. These are the types of results that support cautious staking and a preference for totals or narrow-margin outcomes.

Tactical expectations: structure vs pressure

This matchup often looks like discipline against aggression. Napredak are typically at their best when compact, protecting central areas and countering into space. Radnički Niš, by contrast, tend to look more proactive—pressing higher and trying to win territory early.

NerdyTips’ match projections reinforce “balance” rather than domination:
Possession 49% vs 51%, shots 9 vs 9, on-target 2 vs 2, and corners 3 vs 3. That’s a statistical picture of a game where chances exist, but clear-cut chances are limited.

Best bets and predictions (with odds)

Top tip: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.31 (confidence 7.7/10)
This is supported by league trends (over 3.5 is uncommon), the derby factor, and the projected low on-target shot count. Even with both teams showing some “over 2.5” lately, under 3.5 still gives breathing room for a 1–1 or 2–1 type of game.

1X2 lean: Radnički Niš to win @ 2.7 (low trust)
The model’s predicted result is away win, but with a modest trust rating. Given the derby context and the league’s high draw rate, many bettors may prefer pairing the away lean with a safer goals angle rather than going all-in on the moneyline.

Correct score: 0–1
Half-time: 0–0
These fit the expectation of a tense opening and limited finishing.

Responsible betting note and extra links

Derbies can be unpredictable—consider sensible bankroll management and avoid chasing losses.

If you also follow other sports, you can explore AI Tennis Predictions for match picks in a different market.

If you are interested in other leagues, check our Indonesia Liga 1 betting tips.