Alaves vs Malaga Prediction - Oct 23, 2026

Alaves vs Malaga Prediction: Pressure Meets Patience

The Alaves vs Malaga prediction for Friday, October 23, 2026, points toward a controlled home performance rather than a goal festival. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 GMT at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, where two teams under very different kinds of pressure meet on La Liga Matchday 10.

Alaves seek stability as Malaga chase a first win

Alaves sit seventh with 11 points, but that position hides an uncomfortable recent run. Quique Sánchez Flores' side have collected only one point from five matches and arrive after a 2-1 defeat at Celta Vigo. Hugo Novoa scored a late consolation there, while a previous 2-1 home loss to Atlético Madrid added to the sense that early momentum has faded.

The hosts are expected to use a 3-5-2 system, aiming to strengthen central midfield and create regular service for Lucas Boyé. That shape should also help cover some defensive absences. Centre-back Facundo Garcés remains out following an ACL injury, Mikel Rodríguez has an ankle problem, and Ángel Pérez is suspended after his red card against Atlético.

Malaga's situation is more urgent. The promoted side are bottom with four points and remain the division's only winless team after nine rounds. Their 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad looked heavy, although Malaga twice fought back to reduce the deficit. That spirit matters, but so does a defence that eventually opened like an umbrella in strong wind.

Attackers Julen Lobete and Aaron Ochoa are unavailable, limiting the visitors' options in the final third. Juan Cruz is expected to return after a minor hamstring issue, offering some welcome creativity. Malaga may defend compactly and attack through transitions, particularly because Alaves' back line is not at full strength.

• Alaves market value: €72.90 million
• Malaga market value: €62.45 million
• Expected possession: 52% Alaves, 48% Malaga
• Projected formation for Alaves: 3-5-2

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