Almeria vs Andorra Prediction

Almeria vs Andorra prediction: goals, nerves, and value

The Almeria vs Andorra prediction for Friday, 13 February 2026 (19:30 GMT) feels like one of those Segunda nights where the plan looks simple on paper and then football laughs politely. Almería come into Round 26 with promotion on their mind, while Andorra arrive mainly thinking about staying clear of the trapdoor. The setting is the UD Almería Stadium (around 22,000 seats), and with these stakes, expect the temperature to rise even if the weather does not.

Context, tactics, and why this game can open up

Rubi’s Almería have built their campaign on front-foot football. They are among the league’s top scorers (45 goals), but the “glass cannon” label fits because they have also conceded 35. Rubi has recently spoken about finding more defensive balance, yet the team’s instincts still lean toward attacking in waves, especially at home.

Andorra, now guided by Ibai Gómez after Ferran Costa’s exit, can look tidy in possession (often 60%+), but turning that control into goals has been the problem: 27 scored in 25 matches. Their structure tends to be 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, with an emphasis on keeping the ball and then trying to speed up in transitions. Staff member Carles Manso basically admitted the challenge: Almería are clinical, so Andorra must be braver when the moment to “make them tremble” arrives.

Team news and key names to watch

Almería’s creative hub remains Sergio Arribas, and Patrick Soko is expected to lead the line after returning from international duty. There are some absences and doubts, though, which matters when you face a team that likes to circulate the ball.

• Almería absentees/doubts: Dion Lopy (muscle), Stefan Džodić (suspension), Federico Bonini (thigh doubt), Nico Melamed (could make bench).
• January boosts: Aridane Hernández adds experience at the back, Rodrigo Ely returns, and Bruno Langa arrives on loan at left-back.
• Andorra threats: Jastin García leads them for danger and shots on target; Daniel Villahermosa and Min-Su Kim are key scorers.
• Andorra fitness notes: Alberto Solís unclear long-term, Edgar likely out (strain), Jesús Owono has discomfort after international duties.

Head to head notes and little angles bettors like

Almería won the reverse fixture 2-1 in December 2025, a match decided by “clinical finishing.” They also hold a perfect head to head record in limited league meetings. Still, Andorra have shown they can spring surprises away from home, like that 0-1 win at Valladolid on 2025-12-13 at 5.1 odds. And Almería themselves have lived the underdog drama too, drawing 2-2 at Mallorca on 2024-05-19 despite massive 8.6 win odds. So yes: expect the unexpected, but do it with a bankroll plan.

Almeria vs Andorra prediction: AI picks, betting odds, and score call

Bookmakers price this as an Almería-leaning match: Home win 1.68, Draw 4.1, Away win 4.8. Yet our numbers suggest a tighter story, with possession projected at 51%-49 and shots at 14-11. That hints at Andorra getting enough of the ball to create, and Almería getting enough chances to punish.

• Best tip: GG (Both Teams to Score) at 1.65, confidence 5.7/10.
• Total goals: Over 2.5 at 1.62, confidence 4.5/10.
• 1X2 lean: Draw (X) at 4.0, trust rating 2.0.

The model lands on a 2-2 final score, with 1-1 at half-time. With 9 total corners expected (Andorra 6 of them) and Almería being “penalty kings” this season (9 won, 7 conceded), match events can swing quickly. If you want the safest narrative for this Almeria vs Andorra prediction, it is goals at both ends rather than picking a winner and hoping your coffee survives the second half.