Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
As the 2. SNL season edges into its final stretch, all eyes turn to Športni Park Aluminij this Friday, where Aluminij welcome Tolmin for a 16:00 GMT kickoff that could say a lot about both teams' ambitions. With the home side priced at 1.46 to take all three points, the bookmakers clearly see this as Aluminij’s game to lose. But in a league known for its unpredictability, nothing can be taken for granted.
Aluminij, a side with recent top-flight experience and a squad value of €1.92 million, have been working steadily to get back to where they believe they belong. They’ve shown resilience this season, most notably when they stunned many by holding PrvaLiga side Celje to a 2-2 draw on March 30, 2024 — a result that came with odds of 11.0 for a win, making it one of the more surprising performances of the year. That kind of grit and experience might be exactly what they need to keep their promotion hopes alive.
At home, Aluminij have been consistent, and that’s reflected in their odds here. With 39.5% of 2. SNL matches ending in home wins over recent seasons, and with the league averaging over 1.5 goals in 71% of games, the numbers seem to back them. Add to that a squad that blends youth and experience, and you’ve got a team that knows how to control matches on familiar turf.
On the other side of the pitch, Tolmin come in as clear underdogs at 5.75. But if there’s something bettors should know about this side, it’s that they’re no strangers to upsets. Back in October, they pulled off a 1-0 win over Triglav — a result that came with the exact same long odds. That kind of performance is a reminder that while they may be valued at just €965K, Tolmin have the belief and organization to frustrate stronger opponents.
Still, consistency has been an issue. Away from home, Tolmin tend to struggle to create chances, and with a predicted half-time score of 0:0, they’ll likely aim to keep things tight early on. Whether they can hold out for 90 minutes is another question entirely.
So, what does all this mean for bettors looking for value in the Aluminij vs Tolmin prediction? The odds suggest a fairly one-sided affair, and while Tolmin have shown they can spring a surprise, the data leans heavily toward a home win. The 1x2 market prediction is also firmly in Aluminij’s corner, with a confidence rating of 5.8/10 and odds of 1.46. That’s not a runaway endorsement, but it’s enough to suggest a solid, if not spectacular, win for the hosts.
Our top AI insight for Aluminij vs Tolmin is that the home side will come out on top, with a confidence score of 5.8 out of 10 and odds currently sitting at 1.46 — a decent pick for those looking to build a weekend accumulator.
For those eyeing the goals market, the over 1.5 goals bet carries a trust level of 4.3 and odds of 1.25. Given the league’s track record — where nearly three out of four games see at least two goals — this seems like a safe addition to any bet slip. However, with both teams scoring in just under half of league games (49.2%), backing both to score remains a toss-up.
As far as final scorelines go, our AI model is leaning toward a 2:1 win for Aluminij, with a goalless first half before things open up in the second. It’s a script that fits the narrative: Aluminij patiently probing before finally breaking down a stubborn Tolmin side.
In a league where margins are tight and surprises are part of the package, this match offers a mix of reliability and risk. Aluminij may not be offering blockbuster value at 1.46, but they are the safer pick in a market where safety often pays off. Tolmin, meanwhile, will try to channel that underdog spirit once again — but lightning rarely strikes twice.
Read More
1 -217
Aluminij is expected to win with odds of -2171 -217
Aluminij is expected to win with odds of -217Over 1.5 -400
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -111
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -323
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
|
|
2
-
0
-
0
|
|
 Aluminij |
28-Mar-25
5:0
| Tolmin  |
Recent Matches of Aluminij| 30 Jan |
Radomlje.
|
-
| Aluminij.
| |
| 25 Jan | L |
Wolfsberg.
|
3:2
| Aluminij.
|
Recent Matches of Tolmin
Slovenia - 2. SNL| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Aluminij | 30 | 59-28 | 64 |
| 2 |
Triglav | 30 | 72-33 | 63 |
| 3 |
Gorica | 30 | 60-34 | 59 |
| 4 |
Brinje-Grosupl | 30 | 58-31 | 55 |
| 5 |
Tabor Sežana | 30 | 57-35 | 54 |
| 6 |
Bistrica | 30 | 60-38 | 51 |
| 7 |
Dravinja | 30 | 37-36 | 45 |
| 8 |
Krka | 30 | 28-32 | 38 |
| 9 |
Slovan | 30 | 34-39 | 33 |
| 10 |
Beltinci | 30 | 40-48 | 33 |
| 11 |
Bilje | 30 | 35-45 | 33 |
| 12 |
Dekani | 30 | 32-56 | 32 |
| 13 |
Rudar | 30 | 27-44 | 32 |
| 14 |
Ilirija | 30 | 28-49 | 26 |
| 15 |
Tolmin | 30 | 26-62 | 22 |
| 16 |
NŠ Drava | 30 | 22-65 | 20 |
