Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
The Avellino vs Frosinone prediction starts with a simple scene: a midweek night at the Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, tickets moving from €15 to €40, and two teams arriving with very different worries. Kick-off is set for Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 19:00 GMT (20:00 local time), and the atmosphere should feel bigger than a typical February fixture.
Frosinone travel south sitting 2nd with 46 points from 23 matches, right in the squeeze for automatic promotion to Serie A. Avellino, 12th on 28 points, are trying to turn “comfortable mid-table” into “maybe we can see the play-offs from here.” It’s the kind of fixture where one side has the table pressure, and the other has the freedom to be awkward.
Frosinone’s week began with frustration: a 1–2 home loss to leaders Venezia on 7 February. The scoreline didn’t match the feeling of the game, with Venezia’s keeper reportedly producing a stack of saves that turned dominance into regret. Manager Massimiliano Alvini sounded more annoyed than worried afterward, basically saying the performance deserved more and that playing again quickly could help reset the mind.
Avellino’s form has been mixed, but their best recent night was loud: a 3–1 win over Cesena on 31 January, powered by a Tommaso Biasci hat-trick. They also played Monza on 8 February, just three days before this one, which adds a small fitness question mark. Raffaele Biancolino has leaned into the Partenio crowd as a “12th man” and wants his team to “sweat for the jersey”—the usual phrasing, but at home it often becomes real.
Alvini is usually comfortable with a back three, often landing on a 3.45-2-1 or 3.45-2 depending on the opponent’s threats. He’s shown he’ll shift roles quickly when facing direct attackers, and after the Venezia match he hinted his team played “one of their best games of the year,” so expect intensity rather than caution.
Biancolino, meanwhile, has rotated between three and four at the back based on availability, but the idea stays consistent: keep distances short, protect central areas, and spring forward when the moment is right. If Avellino are compact, Biasci becomes the obvious route out—especially with his recent scoring burst (10 league goals by early February, with a big chunk coming in the last few weeks).
One more note for anyone who likes narrative fuel: Frosinone have shown they can survive tough trips. Back in April 2024, they went to Napoli as big outsiders (around 8.3 to win) and still came away with a 2–2 draw. This team is not allergic to hostile stadiums.
Now to the numbers, because this Avellino vs Frosinone Prediction is built for bettors as much as for romantics. The 1X2 odds place Frosinone as a cautious favourite: Home win 3.45, Draw 3.45, Away win 2.32.
The logic ties together neatly. Our model expects Frosinone to create more: 15 total shots to Avellino’s 9, and 5 on target to 3. That’s a good base for the safer “away team to score” angle—especially with Frosinone chasing promotion points and Avellino possibly carrying a bit of midweek fatigue.
At the same time, it’s not projecting chaos. Under 3.45 goals fits with a game where Avellino try to stay compact and counter, and Frosinone press without turning it into a basketball match. The forecast even leans slightly toward Avellino having more of the ball (52% vs 48%), which can happen when the away side is happy to be efficient rather than dominant.
So the story we’re betting on is simple: Avellino keep it tight, Biasci gives them a puncher’s chance, but Frosinone’s extra shot volume and deeper resources tilt the result. If you’re building a slip, the cleanest betting tips from NerdyTips are “Frosinone to score” and “under 3.45 goals.” For the bolder crowd, the away win is there at 2.32—just remember the trust is modest, because this Partenio stage can turn any head to head into a test of patience.
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AS -455
Frosinone is expected to score at least 1 goal with odds of -4552 132
Frosinone is expected to win with odds of 132Under 3.5 -244
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -152
Both teams are expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -154
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:1
1:2
|
|
0
-
2
-
3
|
|
 Frosinone |
24-Aug-25
2:0
| Avellino  |
| Avellino |
17-Apr-18
0:2
| Frosinone |
| Frosinone |
17-Nov-17
1:1
| Avellino |
| Frosinone |
03-Apr-17
1:1
| Avellino |
| Avellino |
06-Nov-16
0:1
| Frosinone |
Recent Matches of Avellino| 15 Feb |
Avellino.
|
-
| Pescara.
| |
| 08 Feb | L |
Monza.
|
2:1
| Avellino.
|
| 31 Jan | W |
Avellino.
|
3:1
| Cesena.
|
| 24 Jan | L |
Spezia.
|
1:0
| Avellino.
|
| 17 Jan | L |
Avellino.
|
1:2
| Carrarese.
|
| 10 Jan | W |
Avellino.
|
2:1
| Sampdoria.
|
| 27 Dec | D |
Bari.
|
1:1
| Avellino.
|
| 20 Dec | D |
Avellino.
|
2:2
| Palermo.
|
| 13 Dec | L |
Catanzaro.
|
1:0
| Avellino.
|
| 08 Dec | D |
Avellino.
|
1:1
| Venezia.
|
Recent Matches of Frosinone
| 15 Feb |  Spezia. |
- |
Frosinone. | |
| 07 Feb | L | Frosinone. |
1:2 |
Venezia. |
| 31 Jan | D |  Entella. |
1:1 |
Frosinone. |
| 24 Jan | W | Frosinone. |
1:0 |
Reggiana. |
| 17 Jan | D |  Monza. |
2:2 |
Frosinone. |
| 10 Jan | W | Frosinone. |
2:0 |
Catanzaro. |
| 27 Dec | D |  Empoli. |
1:1 |
Frosinone. |
| 20 Dec | W | Frosinone. |
2:1 |
Spezia. |
| 14 Dec | W |  Pescara. |
1:2 |
Frosinone. |
| 08 Dec | W | Frosinone. |
3:0 |
Juve Stabi. |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 24 | 46-22 | 50 |
| 2 |
Monza | 23 | 36-19 | 47 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 23 | 41-21 | 46 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 24 | 39-19 | 45 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 24 | 32-26 | 38 |
| 6 |
Modena | 24 | 31-19 | 37 |
| 7 |
Cesena | 24 | 32-30 | 37 |
| 8 |
Juve Stabia | 23 | 27-26 | 35 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 24 | 31-33 | 30 |
| 10 |
Sudtirol | 23 | 24-23 | 29 |
| 11 |
Padova | 24 | 25-30 | 29 |
| 12 |
Empoli | 23 | 28-31 | 28 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 23 | 28-37 | 28 |
| 14 |
Sampdoria | 24 | 26-32 | 26 |
| 15 |
Virtus Entella | 24 | 23-31 | 25 |
| 16 |
Reggiana | 24 | 26-34 | 24 |
| 17 |
Mantova | 24 | 24-38 | 23 |
| 18 |
Spezia | 23 | 20-30 | 21 |
| 19 |
Bari | 23 | 19-36 | 20 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 24 | 27-48 | 15 |
