Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
Bari vs Spezia prediction time, and it doesn’t get much more tense than this: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 (19:00 GMT) at the Stadio San Nicola, a 58,270-seat stadium that can feel even bigger when anxiety starts to echo. Bari sit 19th on 20 points, Spezia 17th on 20 points—same total, different kind of pressure. Call it a relegation six-pointer, call it a season-defining night; either way, both sides know that one mistake can cost more than three points.
Bari have tried to reset the mood by re-appointing Moreno Longo on 19 January. His recent comments about the “path to salvation” being one of “great suffering” weren’t poetry—they were a warning label. The Galletti have been short on goals all season (18 in 22 matches), and a 0-3 home loss to Palermo is the sort of result that makes a coach count the minutes as much as the chances.
Longo has toggled between a 3.1-1-2 and a 4-4-2, and the theme is clear: limit damage first, then see if a moment arrives for Gabriele Moncini (6 league goals) or Christian Gytkjær (3). Bari have also used tighter man-marking on the opponent’s main creator, and there’s been careful load management with Mehdi Dorval switching wing-back sides to fight fatigue. With only three days’ rest since the 7 February round, don’t be surprised if the second half becomes more about legs than ideas.
Spezia, under Roberto Donadoni since 4 November 2025, have leaned toward pragmatic shapes—3.1-2 or 4-3.1—built on compact defending and quick transitions. Salvatore Esposito is still the creative compass in midfield, while Gabriele Artistico (4 goals) is the most likely finisher. The issue is that Spezia’s plans often get wrecked by their own discipline: they’ve picked up a league-high 7 red cards. Donadoni was hired for stability; so far, he’s also had to coach a bit of self-control.
The recent head to head adds a twist. Bari won the last meeting on 29 December 2024 by 2-0, but historically they’ve struggled in this matchup overall, failing to win 8 of the last 9 league meetings. Interestingly, Bari often do manage to score at home against Spezia—yet this season’s Bari attack has been the least productive in the division. Football loves contradictions; bettors usually don’t.
The market can’t split them cleanly: Home win 3.1, Draw 3.050, Away win 2.65. That says “coin flip”, with a slight lean to Spezia. The squad values support that mild edge too—Bari at €25.15m vs Spezia at €32.10m—though money doesn’t mark corners.
Our models lean toward a low-event game. Projected possession is 48% Bari to 52% Spezia, with shots at 8 vs 12 and on-target 2 vs 3. Corners are forecast 3.1 (9 total), and cards 2-2—controlled, but tense. Put that together and you get a match that lives on details: a set piece, a deflection, one lapse in concentration.
Why the love for unders? Bari’s scoring rate (0.8 per game) naturally pushes matches toward the under, and Spezia’s likely approach away from home under Donadoni is cautious: keep structure, then counter. Add the short turnaround and Spezia’s missing pieces, and you have fewer routes to a goal fest.
So, the practical Bari vs Spezia Prediction is this: expect patience, long spells of midfield wrestling, and one decisive moment—more likely for Spezia, even if the confidence on the away win is modest. If you want the steadier angle, the under 2.65 goals looks like the bet that matches the story this game is ready to tell.
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Spezia didn't play better in the last H2H match!
U2.5 -182
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the match with odds of -1822 165
Spezia is expected to win with odds of 165Under 2.5 -182
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -125
At least one team is not expected to scoreX2&U4.5 -189
Away win/draw and under 4.5 goals
0:0
0:1
|
|
1
-
5
-
3
|
|
 Spezia |
07-Nov-25
1:1
| Bari  |
| Bari |
29-Dec-24
2:0
| Spezia |
| Spezia |
25-Oct-24
0:0
| Bari |
| Bari |
03-Mar-24
1:1
| Spezia |
| Spezia |
15-Dec-23
1:0
| Bari |
| Bari |
13-Mar-18
1:1
| Spezia |
| Spezia |
30-Sep-17
1:0
| Bari |
| Spezia |
08-Apr-17
1:0
| Bari |
| Bari |
13-Nov-16
1:1
| Spezia |
Recent Matches of Bari| 15 Feb |
Bari.
|
-
| Sudtirol.
| |
| 07 Feb | L |
Mantova.
|
2:1
| Bari.
|
| 30 Jan | L |
Bari.
|
0:3
| Palermo.
|
| 24 Jan | W |
Cesena.
|
1:2
| Bari.
|
| 17 Jan | L |
Bari.
|
0:1
| Juve Stabi.
|
| 10 Jan | L |
Carrarese.
|
1:0
| Bari.
|
| 27 Dec | D |
Bari.
|
1:1
| Avellino.
|
| 19 Dec | L |
Bari.
|
1:2
| Catanzaro.
|
| 13 Dec | D |
Sudtirol.
|
0:0
| Bari.
|
| 08 Dec | D |
Bari.
|
1:1
| Pescara.
|
Recent Matches of Spezia
| 07 Feb | D | Spezia. |
1:1 |
Entella. |
| 31 Jan | L |  Sampdoria. |
1:0 |
Spezia. |
| 24 Jan | W | Spezia. |
1:0 |
Avellino. |
| 18 Jan | L |  Palermo. |
1:0 |
Spezia. |
| 10 Jan | L |  Sudtirol. |
2:1 |
Spezia. |
| 27 Dec | W | Spezia. |
2:1 |
Pescara. |
| 20 Dec | L |  Frosinone. |
2:1 |
Spezia. |
| 13 Dec | L | Spezia. |
0:2 |
Modena. |
| 08 Dec | W | Entella. |
0:1 |
Spezia. |
| 30 Nov | W | Spezia. |
1:0 |
Sampdoria. |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 24 | 46-22 | 50 |
| 2 |
Monza | 23 | 36-19 | 47 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 23 | 41-21 | 46 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 24 | 39-19 | 45 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 24 | 32-26 | 38 |
| 6 |
Modena | 24 | 31-19 | 37 |
| 7 |
Cesena | 24 | 32-30 | 37 |
| 8 |
Juve Stabia | 23 | 27-26 | 35 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 24 | 31-33 | 30 |
| 10 |
Sudtirol | 23 | 24-23 | 29 |
| 11 |
Padova | 24 | 25-30 | 29 |
| 12 |
Empoli | 23 | 28-31 | 28 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 23 | 28-37 | 28 |
| 14 |
Sampdoria | 24 | 26-32 | 26 |
| 15 |
Virtus Entella | 24 | 23-31 | 25 |
| 16 |
Reggiana | 24 | 26-34 | 24 |
| 17 |
Mantova | 24 | 24-38 | 23 |
| 18 |
Spezia | 23 | 20-30 | 21 |
| 19 |
Bari | 23 | 19-36 | 20 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 24 | 27-48 | 15 |
