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Match Prediction

Brazil vs Paraguay Prediction

Finished
World flag World
World Cup - Qualification

Brazil

€2.08bn

10 Jun20:45
1 : 0

Paraguay

€199.02m

Preview

Brazil vs Paraguay Prediction World Cup - Qualification South America

Brazil vs Paraguay Prediction: Can the Underdogs Shock the Seleção?

When it comes to Brazil vs Paraguay prediction, the numbers tell a familiar story. The Seleção, with their €2.08bn squad and home advantage at Neo Química Arena, are heavy favorites (1.4 odds) against Paraguay’s scrappy €198.672m underdogs (8.67 away win odds). But football rarely follows the script—especially in CONMEBOL qualifiers, where surprises lurk in every matchday. Will Brazil cruise as expected, or can Paraguay channel the spirit of their recent 2-2 draw against Colombia (a 6.5-odds upset) to defy expectations again?

The Weight of History and Recent Form

Brazil’s 4-0 demolition of Paraguay in their last meeting (2022) still lingers, but this is a new chapter. Paraguay’s gritty performance against Colombia—a game they led twice—proves they can punch above their weight. Yet, their 19.3% historical away win rate in qualifiers clashes with Brazil’s near-impenetrable home record. Here’s what’s at stake:

  • Possession battle: Brazil averages 74% possession, suffocating opponents into submission.
  • Shot dominance: 13 attempts (4 on target) vs Paraguay’s 8 (1 on target) per match.
  • Set-piece edge: A predicted 5-1 corner advantage could unlock Paraguay’s compact defense.

Tactical Chess: Where the Game Will Be Won

Paraguay’s low block and counter-attacks have frustrated bigger teams before. But Brazil’s patience and precision—evident in their 53.8% home win rate in qualifiers—make them favorites to break through. Key sports betting angles to watch:

  1. Under 3.5 goals (1.28 odds): Only 40.3% of CONMEBOL qualifiers exceed 2.5 goals, aligning with our AI’s 2-1 scoreline prediction.
  2. Half-time lead: Brazil’s early pressure (1-0 HT predicted) often sets the tone.
  3. Discipline: Paraguay averages 2 yellows per game—fouls could gift Brazil dangerous free kicks.

Betting Value or Trap? Breaking Down the Odds

The betting odds paint a clear picture, but value hides in nuance. Brazil’s 1.4 win price carries a modest 5.4/10 trust score—dominant, but not bulletproof. The 4.45 draw odds tempt given Paraguay’s resilience, yet only 26.9% of qualifiers end level. For risk-takers, Paraguay +2.5 handicap (or a sneaky correct score punt) might offer better ROI than the straight win market.

Final Verdict: Trust the Stats, But Expect a Fight

This Brazil vs Paraguay prediction leans on data but leaves room for drama. Brazil’s firepower should prevail, but Paraguay’s stubbornness—and those head-to-head lessons from Colombia—could keep it tighter than odds suggest. Our call: 2-1 Brazil, with late nerves after a controlled first half. For bettors, combining Brazil win + under 3.5 goals (1.28) feels safer than banking on a rout.

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AI Predictions
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Warning

Paraguay no motivation!

Best Tip

The best betting football prediction for Brazil vs Paraguay

1 -250

Brazil is expected to win with odds of -250
5/10

1x2 Tip

1 -250

Brazil is expected to win with odds of -250
5/10

Total Goals

Under 3.5 -385

No more than 3 goals will be scored in the match
3/10

Both Teams To Score

Yes 135

Both teams are expected to score
1/10

Bet Builder Tip

1X&U3.5 -208

Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
3/10
Both Teams To Score

Correct Score

2:1

Stats Predictions

74%
Ball Possession
26%
13
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
1
4
Shots Off Goal
2
5
Corners
1
1
Yellow Cards
2

Average / Match

2.1
Total Goals
2.1
1.2
Goals Scored
1.3
0.9
Goals Against
0.8
60%
Possession
38%
10.7
Total Shots
10.9
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.6
3.6
Shots off Goal
3.6
11.9
Fouls
12.3
4.5
Corners
3.7
0.6
Offsides
1.7
2.11
Yellow Cards
2.63
0
Red Cards
0
476
Total Passes
258

Overview Last 10 Matches

4
Wins
5
6
Over 1.5 Goals
6
4
Over 2.5 Goals
5
2
Over 3.5 Goals
2
5
Both Teams Scored
5
0
Unexpected Wins
2
1
Unexpected Loses
0

Head to Head

Brazil
4 - 3 - 1
Paraguay
Paraguay Paraguay 11-Sep-24
1:0
Brazil Brazil
Paraguay Paraguay 29-Jun-24
1:4
Brazil Brazil
Brazil Brazil 02-Feb-22
4:0
Paraguay Paraguay
Paraguay Paraguay 09-Jun-21
0:2
Brazil Brazil
Brazil Brazil 28-Jun-19
0:0
Paraguay Paraguay
Brazil Brazil 29-Mar-17
3:0
Paraguay Paraguay
Paraguay Paraguay 30-Mar-16
2:2
Brazil Brazil
Brazil Brazil 27-Jun-15
1:1
Paraguay Paraguay

World - World Cup - Qualification South America World - World Cup - Qualification South America

Team Matches Goals Points
1 Argentina Argentina17
31-9
38
2 Brazil Brazil17
24-16
28
3 Uruguay Uruguay17
22-12
27
4 Ecuador Ecuador17
13-5
26
5 Colombia Colombia17
22-15
25
6 Paraguay Paraguay17
13-10
25
7 Venezuela Venezuela17
15-22
18
8 Bolivia Bolivia17
16-35
17
9 Peru Peru17
6-20
12
10 Chile Chile17
9-27
10
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