Cesena vs Venezia Prediction

Cesena vs Venezia prediction: value angles for Feb 14

Mark your calendars for 2026-02.14 at 18:30 GMT, because this Cesena vs Venezia prediction comes with real tension at both ends of the table. The game is set for the Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, and while it is “just” one round in Serie B, it feels like one of those nights that can swing a season. Venezia arrive as league leaders on 50 points, Cesena sit in the chasing pack around 37, and both are trying to wash away the taste of rough midweek results.

Cesena were brought back down to earth on February 10 with a 1–3 loss away to Virtus Entella. Alberto Cerri scored, but the defending looked a step slow, the kind of thing that gets punished in Serie B even when you “sort of” control parts of the game. At home, Michele Mignani’s side have not been fully stable either, mixing five wins with three losses at the Manuzzi. Still, this is a team that can punch above its weight; just ask Verona, who were beaten 1–2 by Cesena on 2024-08-10 when the betting odds for a Cesena win were a chunky 5.5.

Venezia, meanwhile, had their own reality check: a 0–2 home defeat to Modena ended an eight-match winning run and tightened the race with Monza and Frosinone. Giovanni Stroppa has turned Venezia into a well-drilled machine since taking over in mid-2025, usually in a 3-5-2 built on pressing, control, and patient build-up. Cesena’s plan is different: more physical, more direct, and focused on disrupting rhythm. Mignani has openly hinted the bar needs to rise to match a squad that looks Serie A-ready on paper.

Team news, match feel, and the head to head edge

Cesena may have to adjust in midfield, with Matteo Francesconi expected to miss out through suspension after his latest booking. There are also fitness question marks around Gianluca Frabotta and Dimitri Bisoli, while young defender Magni is a doubt. The key threats remain clear: Cristian Shpendi (8 goals) and Tommaso Berti (5 assists) are the most reliable sources of trouble in the final third.

Venezia’s injury list is the bigger headache. Gianluca Busio is out until late March, goalkeeper Alessandro Plizzari is sidelined, and both John Yeboah and Daishawn Redan are doubtful. Even so, Venezia still travel with quality: Andrea Adorante has 11 league goals, and Filip Stanković has generally been excellent between the posts despite the Modena setback.

• The head to head story matters: Cesena won the reverse meeting 2.1 in Venice in September 2025.
• Atmosphere should be serious: the Curva Mare is sold out, so expect noise, pressure, and very few Valentine’s Day pleasantries.

Cesena vs Venezia prediction: tips, betting odds, and AI stats

From a sports betting perspective, the 1x2 betting odds lean away: 4.2 for a home win, 3.45 for the draw, and 2.1 for an away win. That pricing fits the broader picture: Venezia’s squad value (€53.42m) nearly doubles Cesena’s (€28.60m), and the leaders are expected to control the ball, with projected possession at 39%–61%.

Our AI’s best tip is X2 (away win or draw) at 1.3 with a trust rating of 8.5/10. It is basically a “Venezia don’t lose” angle, and it matches the game model: Venezia are projected for 17 shots to Cesena’s 10, and 5 shots on goal to Cesena’s 2. Corners also lean away (5–3), suggesting more sustained Venezia pressure even if Cesena stay dangerous in moments.

If you prefer the straight result in the 1x2 market, our AI recommends 2 at odds of 2.1 with trust 8.2. That is the bolder play, but it is supported by the expected flow: a 0–1 half-time pattern and a final score call of 1–2. Just keep in mind Cesena have already shown they can flip scripts, like that Verona upset, and Venezia themselves recently drew 0–0 at Napoli on 2025-03-16 despite long home odds of 6.7, so surprises are not illegal in this league.

Goal bettors get a simpler route: NerdyTips’ AI likes over 1.5 goals at 1.27 (trust 7.4). With Cesena’s intensity and Venezia’s shot volume, two goals feels like a reasonable baseline—unless both teams decide to reenact that Napoli–Venezia 0–0 as a tribute act.

• Best tip: X2 (trust 8.5/10, odds 1.3)
• 1x2 pick: 2 (trust 8.2.10, odds 2.1)
• Goals pick: over 1.5 (trust 7.4/10, odds 1.27)

Final lean for this Cesena vs Venezia prediction: Venezia’s control and volume should tell, but Cesena’s home crowd may make them fight for every inch—yellow cards are even projected at 3–1 for the hosts, which sounds like a team trying to stop the tide with committed tackles.