CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction with tie context

The CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction for Thursday, August 13, 2026, has a very clear starting point: CSKA are not only at home, they are also protecting a huge first-leg lead. Kick-off is set for 19:00 GMT, which is 20:00 local time in Sofia, at the Vasil Levski National Stadium. This UEFA Europa League Third Qualifying Round second leg carries a big prize, as the winner will move on to face OFI Crete in the playoff round.

CSKA bring a 3-0 cushion back to Sofia

CSKA Sofia could hardly have asked for a better first leg. Their 3-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv on August 6 changed the shape of this tie completely. Maks Ebong struck early in the 9th minute, Leandro Godoy doubled the lead before the half-hour mark, and Joel Zwarts added the late goal that made the scoreboard look even heavier for Maccabi. That third goal was not just a finish; it was the kind of European away goal that makes a coach sleep slightly better.

The setting of that first leg was unusual. Maccabi hosted the match at the Batumi Arena in Georgia because of UEFA security restrictions on Israeli clubs, and the game was played behind closed doors. UEFA had also punished Maccabi with a fine and a stadium ban after fireworks were set off by their supporters in the previous round against Sheriff Tiraspol. In simple terms, Maccabi lost home advantage before a ball was kicked, and CSKA used the quiet night perfectly.

Tactical picture and team news

Maccabi Tel Aviv, led by Kenny Miller, usually work from a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape. Before the defeat to CSKA, they had been in excellent form, beating Sheriff Tiraspol 6-0 on aggregate. That shows there is attacking quality in this squad, even if the first leg against CSKA was a cold shower without the warm towel afterwards.

However, Maccabi arrive with problems. Midfielder Kristijan Belić is out after surgery for a fractured metatarsal, while forward Ion Nicolaescu remains sidelined with a long-term ACL injury. The absence of full-backs Sagiv Jehezkel and Roy Revivo in the first leg also forced changes, though new signing Ester Sokler has been added to the squad. One positive story was the European debut of 23-year-old Shahar Rosen, grandson of club legend Zvika Rosen, at left-back.

CSKA, by contrast, look settled and healthy. The Bulgarian side have no major injury concerns, and their squad has plenty of experience from different football cultures. Stefano Sensi, Jean-Philippe Gbamin and captain Bruno Jordão give them a strong central spine, with enough calm on the ball to manage the tempo. With a 3-0 lead, CSKA do not need to chase the game. Their best plan may be to control space, avoid early panic, and make Maccabi take risks.

AI betting tips for CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

From a betting point of view, this match is interesting because the market still respects Maccabi’s quality. The current 1x2 odds are 2.22 for a home win, 3.3 for the draw, and 3.55 for an away win. Maccabi have the higher squad market value at €29.38m compared with CSKA Sofia’s €21.360m, but market value does not defend set pieces, protect a three-goal lead, or silence a home crowd in Sofia.

Our AI system’s best tip is 1X double chance, meaning CSKA Sofia to win or draw. The confidence is 4.0/10, with odds of 1.360. That rating is cautious rather than loud, and that makes sense. CSKA have a massive advantage in the tie, so they may not need to play at full speed for 90 minutes. Still, the home side avoiding defeat fits both the match context and the numbers.

• Best AI tip: 1X, CSKA Sofia win or draw
• Confidence: 4.0/10
• Odds for 1X: 1.360
• AI 1x2 lean: Home win at 2.22
• Predicted final score: 2-1
• Predicted half-time score: 1-0

Why the home win is still in play

The AI-generated 1x2 prediction favors CSKA Sofia to win, with a calculated trust of 3.9 and odds of 2.22. This is not a wild home pick. CSKA are projected to have 53% possession compared with Maccabi’s 47%, which suggests a balanced match but with the Bulgarian side slightly better placed to control rhythm. The shot forecast also leans towards the hosts: 14 total shots for CSKA and 11 for Maccabi, with 6 on target for CSKA and 5 for the visitors.

That small edge matters. Maccabi must attack, but if they push too high, CSKA can find space behind them. The 2-1 score prediction reflects that exact script: Maccabi are good enough to score, but CSKA have enough structure and attacking threat to answer. A 1-0 half-time prediction also points toward a controlled start from the hosts, perhaps using the crowd and the first-leg confidence to make Maccabi’s task feel even bigger.

Goals, corners and discipline outlook

The over/under market prediction is over 1.5 goals, with confidence at 3.7 and odds of 1.366. This feels logical. Maccabi cannot sit deep because they are three goals down, while CSKA may get chances as the away side opens up. Even if CSKA start carefully, the game state should naturally create space after the first half-hour.

Corners are projected at 5 for each team, making 10 in total. That fits the expected flow: Maccabi likely pressing from wide areas, CSKA responding through transitions and attacks of their own. Yellow cards are estimated at 3 for each side, so discipline could also become a factor. European qualifiers are rarely gentle when the prize is this close; nobody wants to explain a soft tackle to the manager after elimination.

Final CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction

The CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction leans toward CSKA staying unbeaten on the night. Their first-leg 3-0 win gives them control, their home advantage strengthens the case, and recent evidence supports their ability to suffer when needed. Their 0-0 away draw against Qarabag on July 23, when they were priced as heavy 6.5 underdogs, showed they can be stubborn and organized under pressure.

For readers looking at betting tips, the safest angle is 1X, while the bolder 1x2 selection is CSKA Sofia to win. Over 1.5 goals also looks reasonable, mainly because Maccabi must take risks. In head to head terms, this tie currently belongs to CSKA, and unless Maccabi produce something special, Sofia should be celebrating a place in the next round.