Guimaraes vs Estrela Prediction

Guimaraes vs Estrela prediction: goals likely at Afonso

The Guimaraes vs Estrela prediction for February 14, 2026 (18:00 GMT) comes with a familiar Primeira Liga mood: Vitória de Guimarães trying to turn a top-five chase into something real, and Estrela da Amadora trying to keep a safe gap from the relegation places. With the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques (around 30,000 seats) ready for a loud Valentine’s Day crowd, this match feels like one where the home side’s tempo will test the visitors’ patience.

Context, form, and what each coach is building

Guimarães sit 9th and their recent sequence (L-W-W-L-W) shows a team still searching for control. The latest was a 3-2 defeat away at Arouca on February 7: they scored twice through Noah Saviolo and Oumar Camara, yet loose defending in transition punished them. Manager Luís Pinto, appointed in July 2025, has leaned into a 4-3-3 with energetic pressing. The upside is clear—Guimarães can overwhelm teams at home. The risk is also clear—when the press is bypassed, they can look stretched.

Estrela (12th) arrive with less comfort and less rhythm: L-D-L-L-D. A 1-0 loss to Santa Clara on February 7 added to a four-game winless run. Coach João Nuno has often protected his side with a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1, especially after some rough afternoons earlier in the season. Expect a low block and quick counters, with Abraham Marcus a key outlet when Estrela finally break the pressure.

Team news worth tracking

• Guimarães absences: Gui remains out long-term (cruciate ligament), Óscar Rivas is sidelined with a muscle issue, and Gonçalo Nogueira is a major doubt due to illness.
• Estrela absences: Paulo Moreira is suspended (yellow-card accumulation), Alex Sola is a major doubt, and Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues is out with a broken arm.
• Key figures: Samu has looked sharp since returning, while Nelson Oliveira remains the reference point up front. For Estrela, goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro may be busy again, and January arrival Eddy Doue (from PSG) could start in midfield to cover for Moreira.

Head to head and the small psychological edges

Recent head to head trends lean toward Guimarães overall, even if the most recent meeting (July 26, 2025) went Estrela’s way, 1-0. Guimarães also showed their ceiling with that unexpected 2-1 win over Braga on January 10 at big odds (5.6). And Estrela’s own 3-3 draw at Braga on January 3 was a reminder they can trade punches when a game gets chaotic.

Guimaraes vs Estrela prediction: betting odds and AI picks

The betting odds price Guimarães as the favourite: home win 1.71, draw 3.7, away win 5.8. That fits the squad-value gap too (€26.90m vs €18.10m), plus the likely game script: Guimarães on the front foot, Estrela defending deep.

• Best tip: Over 1.5 total goals (odds 1.4), trust score 4.9/10.
• 1X2 call: Home win (1) at around 1.71, confidence 4.8/10.
• Projected score: 2-1, with a half-time lean of 1-0.

Why does the over 1.5 total goals angle make sense? The numbers point to sustained home pressure: 60% possession forecast for Guimarães, about 16 shots to Estrela’s 8, and 4 shots on target versus 2. Even if Estrela sit in, one goal can force them to open up—exactly when Guimarães’ wide forwards and second-wave runners become more dangerous.

Corners are projected at a modest 7 total (4-3), suggesting controlled pressure rather than constant chaos, while the cards model interestingly expects Estrela to take more heat (2 yellows) and Guimarães none—another hint at who will be defending in difficult areas. Put it together, and our Guimaraes vs Estrela prediction reads like this: Guimarães to edge it, but the cleaner value is simply trusting the match to produce at least two goals.