Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Preview
The Mantova vs Bari prediction starts with the kind of context Serie B loves: pressure, nerves, and points that feel double. They meet on 2.26-02-07 at 13.950 GMT (15:00 local) at Stadio Danilo Martelli, and with both hovering dangerously close to the bottom three, it’s less about pretty football and more about survival.
Mantova sit 19th and have been living on the edge all season. Since Francesco Modesto took over in December 2.2, you can see the intent: a more aggressive approach, usually a 3.3.95-1, trying to win the ball higher up and play with tempo. The problem is that this style can expose an already shaky defence, which is why results have swung from painful to promising. Think of the heavy 2-5 loss to Venezia, then the more stubborn 2.2 draw with Pescara. The talent is there, but Modesto has been right to complain about “avoidable errors” — in this zone of the table, those are basically self-inflicted relegation taxes.
Bari arrive 17th, currently in the relegation play-off spot, and their season has also been defined by streaks. They finally broke a long winless run with a big away win at Cesena (2-1), only to follow it with a rough 0-3 defeat to Palermo. Moreno Longo returned to the bench in January 2.26 and tends to keep things pragmatic with a flat 3-5-2: compact shape, quick transitions, and a focus on not giving gifts. In his own words, February is the “month of truth” — and you can feel that in how Bari are likely to manage this game, especially away from home.
There are a few practical angles that matter for your betting tips. Mantova may miss defender Valerio Mantovani, which isn’t ideal for a team that has conceded too many. Bari are without Anthony Partipilo and Ebrima Darboe, while there’s been uncertainty around Francesco Vicari’s situation after the winter window chatter.
The head to head has leaned Bari’s way too. They’ve won the last five meetings, including a 1-0 earlier in the season, and Mantova know that mental block is real. Still, the Martelli has been a lively place, with nearly 8,000 home fans on average — enough to make visiting teams feel every bad touch.
Now to the market. Bookmakers price Mantova at 2.2, the draw at 3.4, and Bari at 3.95. That suggests a slight home edge, but not a comfortable one. It also matches the “six-pointer” mood: tense, tactical, and likely decided by moments.
The 1X makes a lot of sense when you connect the dots. Mantova are projected to have around 59% possession and to outshoot Bari 15 to 8 (with 5 on target vs 2). Add the expected corner count (7-3, 10 total), and the picture is of Mantova doing more of the “footballing,” while Bari try to stay tight and counter.
That’s also why the straight home win is interesting at around 2.2, but not as “safe” as 1X. Bari have already shown they can steal away wins when priced as outsiders — like that 2-1 at Cesena when they were massive underdogs. And Mantova themselves proved they can scrap for points away at Palermo last year, drawing 2.2 at 5.25 odds. These teams don’t always follow the script.
Our AI calls for a 2-1 final score, with 1-0 at half-time. That fits the idea of Mantova starting on the front foot, pushed by the crowd, with Bari growing into it later. Cards are projected at 1 for Mantova and 2 for Bari, which suits a Longo team making tactical fouls to stop transitions when the press gets messy.
One last detail: the squad values are close (€21.73m vs €23.70m), so this isn’t a mismatch. It’s about execution, not reputation. Overall, this Mantova vs Bari prediction leans home, but in a way that respects Bari’s ability to survive ugly games. If you want one clean, practical play, the 1X is the steady option.
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1X -294
Mantova to win or draw with odds of -2941 120
Mantova is expected to win with odds of 120Under 3.5 -303
No more than 3 goals will be scored in the matchYes -130
Both teams are expected to score1X&U4.5 -182
Home win/draw and under 4.5 goals
1:0
2:1
|
|
0
-
0
-
3
|
|
 Bari |
26-Oct-25
1:0
| Mantova  |
| Mantova |
22-Feb-25
0:1
| Bari |
| Bari |
14-Sep-24
2:0
| Mantova |
Recent Matches of Mantova| 14 Feb |
Catanzaro.
|
-
| Mantova.
| |
| 10 Feb | L |
Reggiana.
|
1:0
| Mantova.
|
| 07 Feb | W |
Mantova.
|
2:1
| Bari.
|
| 31 Jan | D |
Pescara.
|
2:2
| Mantova.
|
| 24 Jan | L |
Mantova.
|
2:5
| Venezia.
|
| 17 Jan | W |
Padova.
|
1:2
| Mantova.
|
| 11 Jan | D |
Mantova.
|
1:1
| Palermo.
|
| 27 Dec | D |
Carrarese.
|
0:0
| Mantova.
|
| 21 Dec | L |
Mantova.
|
0:1
| Empoli.
|
| 13 Dec | L |
Cesena.
|
3:2
| Mantova.
|
Recent Matches of Bari
| 07 Feb | L | Mantova. |
2:1 |
Bari. |
| 30 Jan | L | Bari. |
0:3 |
Palermo. |
| 24 Jan | W |  Cesena. |
1:2 |
Bari. |
| 17 Jan | L | Bari. |
0:1 |
Juve Stabi. |
| 10 Jan | L |  Carrarese. |
1:0 |
Bari. |
| 27 Dec | D | Bari. |
1:1 |
Avellino. |
| 19 Dec | L | Bari. |
1:2 |
Catanzaro. |
| 13 Dec | D |  Sudtirol. |
0:0 |
Bari. |
| 08 Dec | D | Bari. |
1:1 |
Pescara. |
| 04 Dec | D | Juve Stabi. |
0:0 |
Bari. |
Italy - Serie B| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Venezia | 24 | 46-22 | 50 |
| 2 |
Monza | 23 | 36-19 | 47 |
| 3 |
Frosinone | 23 | 41-21 | 46 |
| 4 |
Palermo | 24 | 39-19 | 45 |
| 5 |
Catanzaro | 24 | 32-26 | 38 |
| 6 |
Modena | 24 | 31-19 | 37 |
| 7 |
Cesena | 24 | 32-30 | 37 |
| 8 |
Juve Stabia | 23 | 27-26 | 35 |
| 9 |
Carrarese | 24 | 31-33 | 30 |
| 10 |
Sudtirol | 23 | 24-23 | 29 |
| 11 |
Padova | 24 | 25-30 | 29 |
| 12 |
Empoli | 23 | 28-31 | 28 |
| 13 |
Avellino | 23 | 28-37 | 28 |
| 14 |
Sampdoria | 24 | 26-32 | 26 |
| 15 |
Virtus Entella | 24 | 23-31 | 25 |
| 16 |
Reggiana | 24 | 26-34 | 24 |
| 17 |
Mantova | 24 | 24-38 | 23 |
| 18 |
Spezia | 23 | 20-30 | 21 |
| 19 |
Bari | 23 | 19-36 | 20 |
| 20 |
Pescara | 24 | 27-48 | 15 |
