Maringa and Atletico Paranaense are set to battle it out at Estádio Regional Willie Davids on March 16, 2025, at 20:00 UTC. With the home side priced at 3.12 for a win, a draw at 3.4, and the visitors favored at 2.04, the odds suggest a tight contest. But is there real value in backing Atletico Paranaense, or should we look elsewhere for the best bet?

Let’s start with some key stats. Historically, home teams in the Paranaense - 1 have won 48.7% of matches, while away teams have only managed 23.8%. That’s not exactly confidence-boosting for Atletico Paranaense backers. Draws occur 27.5% of the time, so a stalemate isn’t out of the question either.

However, when these two sides last met on February 9, 2025, it was a goal-fest, with Atletico Paranaense edging Maringa 3-2. That might suggest another high-scoring affair, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Across the league, only 19.8% of matches see over 3.5 goals, making the under 3.5 goals bet at 1.3 the most logical choice. NerdyTips gives this bet a trust level of 6.1/10, making it the safest play on the board.

Atletico Paranaense boasts a significantly higher squad value at €38.30m compared to Maringa’s €1.88m, but as we’ve seen in football, money doesn’t always guarantee results. Maringa recently held Coritiba to a 1-1 draw away, despite being heavy underdogs at 5.2 odds. Meanwhile, Atletico Paranaense has shown they can pull off surprises too, like their 0-2 away win over Palmeiras back in 2022 at staggering 9.3 odds.

Given the stats, the final score prediction is 0-1 in favor of Atletico Paranaense, with the first half expected to end 0-0. This aligns with the cautious approach we’re expecting from both sides.

For those looking at the 1X2 market, the away win at 2.04 is the preferred option, but with only a 2.6/10 trust level, it’s not the most confident pick. The real value lies in the under 3.5 goals bet, which aligns with the league’s trends and has a 6.2/10 confidence level.

In summary, expect a low-scoring, tactical battle, with Atletico Paranaense likely to edge it. But if you’re betting, the smartest move is to back under 3.5 goals—because when the stats talk, we listen.