Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Spain
Preview
The Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata will host a fascinating Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 encounter between Moralo and Arroyo on April 17, 2025. The last time these two met, Moralo walked away with a convincing 2-0 victory, a result that still lingers in the minds of both sets of supporters. But this is football, where past results only tell half the story.
Moralo have shown flashes of brilliance this season, none more surprising than their 0-1 away win against Extremadura 1924, a match where they defied the odds (8.0) with a disciplined performance. On the other hand, Arroyo has built a reputation for grinding out results when least expected, like their 0-0 draw against CD Coria, where they held firm as heavy underdogs (10.0). This clash, then, is a battle between Moralo's attacking edge and Arroyo's stubborn resilience.
The market leans heavily toward Moralo, pricing a home win at 1.55, while a draw sits at 3.8 and an Arroyo victory at a distant 5.3. On paper, it makes sense—Moralo have the recent head-to-head advantage and a knack for pulling off surprises. But Arroyo’s ability to frustrate stronger opponents means this game isn’t as straightforward as the odds suggest.
Our predictive model sees value in backing Moralo to win (1) with a 4.1/10 trust level at 1.55 odds. The 1x2 prediction also favors Moralo (4.2 confidence), reinforcing the idea that home advantage and recent form tilt the scales in their favor. For those looking at goal markets, Over 1.5 goals is a sensible play (3.8 confidence, odds: 1.25), given Moralo’s scoring record and Arroyo’s occasional defensive lapses.
Expect a cagey start, with Arroyo digging in to avoid an early setback. A 1-1 halftime scoreline wouldn’t be shocking, but Moralo’s superior firepower should eventually break through. Our predicted final score? 2-1 to the hosts. As for the referee—well, 'Officiating TBD' might just be the real mystery here.
Moralo’s odds offer solid value, especially given their recent dominance over Arroyo. However, underestimating Arroyo’s spoiler potential would be unwise. If you’re playing it safe, the Over 1.5 goals market is a low-risk alternative. Either way, this Moralo vs Arroyo prediction hinges on whether the home side can translate their attacking flair into another three points.
One thing’s for sure: at the Estadio Municipal de Navalmoral de la Mata, surprises are never off the table.
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1 -182
Moralo is expected to win with odds of -1821 -182
Moralo is expected to win with odds of -182Over 1.5 -400
At least 2 goals will be scored in the matchYes -116
Both teams are expected to score1X&O1.5 -286
Home win/draw and over 1.5 goals
2:1
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|
6
-
2
-
2
|
|
 Moralo |
17-Apr-25
5:0
| Arroyo  |
| Arroyo |
07-Dec-24
2:3
| Moralo |
| Moralo |
12-May-24
2:0
| Arroyo |
| Arroyo |
14-Jan-24
2:1
| Moralo |
| Moralo |
11-Mar-23
1:1
| Arroyo |
| Arroyo |
06-Nov-22
0:4
| Moralo |
| Arroyo |
17-Apr-22
1:0
| Moralo |
| Moralo |
12-Dec-21
0:0
| Arroyo |
| Arroyo |
26-Jan-20
3:4
| Moralo |
Recent Matches of Moralo| 25 Jan | W |
Moralo.
|
2:1
| Diocesano.
|
Recent Matches of Arroyo
Spain - Tercera División RFEF - Group 14| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Extremadura | 34 | 73-22 | 75 |
| 2 |
Azuaga | 34 | 65-28 | 71 |
| 3 |
Jaraíz | 34 | 65-40 | 69 |
| 4 |
Llerenense | 34 | 58-28 | 68 |
| 5 |
Badajoz | 34 | 54-20 | 63 |
| 6 |
Diocesano | 34 | 58-38 | 58 |
| 7 |
Santa Amalia | 34 | 31-31 | 54 |
| 8 |
Jerez | 34 | 50-48 | 51 |
| 9 |
Villafranca | 34 | 55-55 | 47 |
| 10 |
Moralo | 34 | 52-50 | 46 |
| 11 |
Montijo | 34 | 35-34 | 45 |
| 12 |
Atlético | 34 | 42-71 | 36 |
| 13 |
Calamonte | 34 | 36-48 | 33 |
| 14 |
Puebla Calzada | 34 | 35-56 | 32 |
| 15 |
Castuera | 34 | 46-64 | 29 |
| 16 |
Trujillo | 34 | 32-63 | 28 |
| 17 |
Arroyo | 34 | 32-70 | 22 |
| 18 |
Olivenza | 34 | 26-79 | 17 |
