Match Prediction
Match Prediction
Mali
Preview
The Police vs Bakaridjan prediction is shaping up to be an intriguing battle in the Mali Première Division, with the hosts favored to take all three points. Set for April 28, 2025, at Stade Mamadou Konaté (20:15 GMT), this match pits a solid home side against an underdog with a knack for defying the betting odds. Let’s break down why NerdyTips’ AI is backing a home win and under 2.5 goals—and whether the stats support that call.
In Mali’s top flight, home teams win 40.8% of matches—a stat that bodes well for Police, especially given their 1.73 odds for victory. Away wins are rarer (31.8%), while draws happen 27.4% of the time. But Bakaridjan aren’t your typical pushovers. They’ve held their own against stronger sides, like their gritty 0-0 draw at Djoliba earlier this year despite 6.25 odds. Still, the league’s trends suggest Police have the edge.
Police’s recent 0-0 draw at Djoliba—a match where they were huge underdogs (6.0 odds)—shows they can grind out results. But at home, they’ll be expected to attack. Bakaridjan, meanwhile, have proven stubborn defensively but struggle to convert chances. With no referee assigned yet, discipline (or chaos) could play a wildcard role.
NerdyTips’ AI gives Police’s win a 3.8/10 trust score—not a ringing endorsement, but solid given the betting odds. The projected 2-0 scoreline (1-0 at halftime) aligns with league trends: low-scoring affairs where home sides control the tempo. The under 2.5 goals pick (1.47 odds, 1.0 trust score) feels safer than betting on a goal fest.
For sports betting enthusiasts, the 1x2 market leans heavily toward Police. Here’s the breakdown:
The under 2.5 goals market (1.47 odds) is the safer play, given only 15.3% of league games exceed 3.5 goals. A 1-0 or 2-0 win for Police seems the likeliest outcome.
While Bakaridjan have pulled off surprises, the Police vs Bakaridjan prediction hinges on home advantage and the league’s low-scoring tendencies. NerdyTips’ AI recommends:
If you’re feeling bold, a correct score bet of 2-0 (or 1-0) could offer juicy returns. But for a balanced approach, stick with the AI’s picks—they’ve crunched the numbers so you don’t have to.
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1 -137
Police is expected to win with odds of -1371 -137
Police is expected to win with odds of -137Under 2.5 -213
No more than 2 goals will be scored in the matchNo -182
At least one team is not expected to score1X&U3.5 -244
Home win/draw and under 3.5 goals
2:0
|
|
2
-
8
-
8
|
|
 Police |
28-Apr-25
0:1
| Bakaridjan  |
| Bakaridjan |
07-Jan-25
2:1
| Police |
| Bakaridjan |
10-Feb-24
0:0
| Police |
| Police |
05-Nov-23
0:1
| Bakaridjan |
| Police |
28-May-23
1:0
| Bakaridjan |
| Bakaridjan |
04-Dec-22
2:1
| Police |
| Police |
01-Jul-22
2:2
| Bakaridjan |
| Bakaridjan |
26-Feb-22
1:0
| Police |
| Police |
08-Feb-20
2:1
| Bakaridjan |
| Bakaridjan |
17-Nov-19
1:1
| Police |
Mali - Première Division| Team | Matches | Goals | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Stade Malien | 24 | 44-10 | 56 |
| 2 |
Djoliba | 24 | 38-12 | 48 |
| 3 |
USFAS Bamako | 24 | 24-21 | 38 |
| 4 |
Onze | 24 | 26-27 | 37 |
| 5 |
Réal Bamako | 24 | 29-22 | 35 |
| 6 |
Bakaridjan | 24 | 16-19 | 32 |
| 7 |
Binga | 24 | 32-32 | 31 |
| 8 |
Afrique Football | 24 | 22-20 | 30 |
| 9 |
US Bougouba | 24 | 33-36 | 29 |
| 10 |
Police | 24 | 19-30 | 27 |
| 11 |
Bougouni | 24 | 13-26 | 27 |
| 12 |
ASKO | 24 | 15-26 | 24 |
| 13 |
Étoiles | 24 | 18-36 | 21 |
| 14 |
Diarra | 24 | 20-32 | 19 |
